Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts: 2014 Week 12 Recap

Game story

In Week 12 of the 2014 NFL season on 2014-11-23, the Indianapolis Colts took care of business against the Jacksonville Jaguars, pulling away with a 23–3 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q3 with 14 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

A. Luck (Indianapolis Colts) paced the passing game, with -5.42 total EPA, and +3.9% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, T. Hilton (Indianapolis Colts) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +9.19 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-19.2% win probability) landed in the opening quarter when Jacksonville Jaguars changed the game: (12:11) (Run formation) 5-B.Bortles pass short left intended for 89-M.Lewis INTERCEPTED by 21-V.Davis at IND 36. 21-V.Davis to JAX 22 for 42 yards (45-W.Ta'ufo'ou).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 T. Hilton · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +9.19 total EPA · 5 snaps · +1.84 EPA/play
2. 2 D. Moncrief · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +3.01 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.75 EPA/play
3. 3 D. Robinson · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +2.11 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.42 EPA/play
4. 4 B. Bortles · Jacksonville Jaguars · Rushing · +1.96 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.39 EPA/play
5. 5 M. Lee · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +1.84 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.37 EPA/play
6. 6 H. Nicks · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +1.63 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.63 EPA/play
7. 7 T. Gerhart · Jacksonville Jaguars · Rushing · +1.48 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.37 EPA/play
8. 8 D. Moncrief · Indianapolis Colts · Rushing · +1.24 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.24 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Indianapolis Colts — T. Richardson (Q3 23:36)
• Indianapolis Colts — T. Hilton (A. Luck pass) (Q3 21:19)

Field goals

• Indianapolis Colts — A. Vinatieri (Q1 55:38)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — J. Scobee (Q1 49:22)
• Indianapolis Colts — A. Vinatieri (Q2 30:16)
• Indianapolis Colts — A. Vinatieri (Q4 14:57)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: The quarter finished even at 3–3. Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the JAX 28 (Q1 55:38) — (10:38) 4-A.Vinatieri 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.; Jacksonville Jaguars connected on a field goal from the IND 10 (Q1 49:22) — (4:22) 10-J.Scobee 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger..

The second quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 3–0. Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the JAX 2 (Q2 30:16) — (:16) 4-A.Vinatieri 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee..

The third quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 14–0. Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the JAX 1 (Q3 23:36) — (8:36) 71-X.Nixon and 54-A.Jackson reported in as eligible. 34-T.Richardson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the JAX 2 (Q3 23:31) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the JAX 73 (Q3 21:19) — (6:19) (No Huddle) 12-A.Luck pass deep right to 13-T.Hilton for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-E.Hood].; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the JAX 2 (Q3 21:08) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee..

The fourth quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 3–0. Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the JAX 14 (Q4 14:57) — (14:57) 4-A.Vinatieri 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q1 57:11) — (12:11) (Run formation) 5-B.Bortles pass short left intended for 89-M.Lewis INTERCEPTED by 21-V.Davis at IND 36. 21-V.Davis to JAX 22 for 42 yards (45-W.Ta'ufo'ou). [WPA -19.2% · EPA -7.10]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q1 51:54) — (6:54) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck sacked at IND 12 for -19 yards (98-C.Smith). FUMBLES (98-C.Smith), RECOVERED by JAX-99-S.Marks at IND 12. 99-S.Marks to IND 12 for no gain (75-J.Mewhort). [WPA -15.6% · EPA -5.72]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q2 44:40) — (14:40) (Run formation) 71-X.Nixon reported in as eligible. 36-D.Herron left end to JAX 7 for no gain (52-J.Thomas). Jacksonville challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REV [WPA -14.2% · EPA -5.10]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q2 31:10) — (1:10) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep right to 13-T.Hilton ran ob at JAX 18 for 26 yards. [WPA +13.9% · EPA +2.70]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q1 57:52) — (12:52) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck sacked at IND 40 for -7 yards (91-C.Clemons). FUMBLES (91-C.Clemons), RECOVERED by JAX-50-T.Smith at IND 46. 50-T.Smith to IND 46 for no gain (69-H.Thornton). JAX - Clemons [WPA -12.8% · EPA -5.62]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q1 57:11) — (12:11) (Run formation) 5-B.Bortles pass short left intended for 89-M.Lewis INTERCEPTED by 21-V.Davis at IND 36. 21-V.Davis to JAX 22 for 42 yards (45-W.Ta'ufo'ou). [WPA -19.2% · EPA -7.10]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q1 51:54) — (6:54) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck sacked at IND 12 for -19 yards (98-C.Smith). FUMBLES (98-C.Smith), RECOVERED by JAX-99-S.Marks at IND 12. 99-S.Marks to IND 12 for no gain (75-J.Mewhort). [WPA -15.6% · EPA -5.72]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q1 57:52) — (12:52) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck sacked at IND 40 for -7 yards (91-C.Clemons). FUMBLES (91-C.Clemons), RECOVERED by JAX-50-T.Smith at IND 46. 50-T.Smith to IND 46 for no gain (69-H.Thornton). JAX - Clemons [WPA -12.8% · EPA -5.62]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q3 21:19) — (6:19) (No Huddle) 12-A.Luck pass deep right to 13-T.Hilton for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-E.Hood]. [WPA +7.6% · EPA +5.46]

Quarterback report card

A.Luck led all passers in efficiency for Indianapolis Colts, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• A.Luck (Indianapolis Colts) · 42 dropbacks · 50.0% completion · +3.9% CPOE · -0.13 EPA/play · -5.42 total EPA
• B.Bortles (Jacksonville Jaguars) · 31 dropbacks · 48.4% completion · -16.3% CPOE · -0.64 EPA/play · -19.87 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Indianapolis Colts held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (-0.06 vs -0.37), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Indianapolis Colts: 12 drives, -5.00 total EPA, 5 scoring drives
• Jacksonville Jaguars: 12 drives, -25.59 total EPA, 1 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Indianapolis Colts leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• T. Hilton (Indianapolis Colts) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• A. Luck (IND) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• B. Bortles (JAX) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q1 55:38 · JAX 28 · Score 0-3
   (10:38) 4-A.Vinatieri 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars FG (+3) — Q1 49:22 · IND 10 · Score 3-3
   (4:22) 10-J.Scobee 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.
3. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q2 30:16 · JAX 2 · Score 3-6
   (:16) 4-A.Vinatieri 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
4. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q3 23:36 · JAX 1 · Score 3-12
   (8:36) 71-X.Nixon and 54-A.Jackson reported in as eligible. 34-T.Richardson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
5. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q3 23:31 · JAX 2 · Score 3-13
   4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
6. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q3 21:19 · JAX 73 · Score 3-19
   (6:19) (No Huddle) 12-A.Luck pass deep right to 13-T.Hilton for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-E.Hood].
7. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q3 21:08 · JAX 2 · Score 3-20
   4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
8. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q4 14:57 · JAX 14 · Score 3-23
   (14:57) 4-A.Vinatieri 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.