Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts: 2007 Week 13 Recap

Game story

In Week 13 of the 2007 NFL season on 2007-12-02, the Indianapolis Colts took care of business against the Jacksonville Jaguars, pulling away with a 28–25 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 18 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

P. Manning (Indianapolis Colts) paced the passing game, with +16.26 total EPA, and +7.8% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, P. Manning (Indianapolis Colts) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +16.26 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-12.5% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Jacksonville Jaguars changed the game: (12:14) (Shotgun) 9-D.Garrard sacked at IND 29 for -11 yards (sack split by 28-M.Jackson and 54-F.Keiaho).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 P. Manning · Indianapolis Colts · Passing · +16.26 total EPA · 33 snaps · +0.49 EPA/play
2. 2 R. Wayne · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +13.46 total EPA · 8 snaps · +1.68 EPA/play
3. 3 D. Clark · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +8.61 total EPA · 7 snaps · +1.23 EPA/play
4. 4 D. Garrard · Jacksonville Jaguars · Passing · +6.43 total EPA · 33 snaps · +0.19 EPA/play
5. 5 E. Wilford · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +6.07 total EPA · 5 snaps · +1.21 EPA/play
6. 6 R. Williams · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +5.59 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.40 EPA/play
7. 7 D. Garrard · Jacksonville Jaguars · Rushing · +4.82 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.96 EPA/play
8. 8 D. Northcutt · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +4.47 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.12 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Indianapolis Colts — D. Clark (P. Manning pass) (Q1 54:34)
• Indianapolis Colts — R. Wayne (P. Manning pass) (Q1 46:37)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — M. Jones-Drew (Q2 35:25)
• Indianapolis Colts — D. Clark (P. Manning pass) (Q2 30:11)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — M. Lewis (D. Garrard pass) (Q3 23:11)
• Indianapolis Colts — L. Lawton (P. Manning pass) (Q4 8:30)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — D. Northcutt (D. Garrard pass) (Q4 2:53)

Field goals

• Jacksonville Jaguars — J. Scobee (Q4 11:41)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 14–0. Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the JAX 5 (Q1 54:34) — (9:34) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 44-D.Clark for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the JAX 2 (Q1 54:30) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the JAX 48 (Q1 46:37) — (1:37) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep left to 87-R.Wayne for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the JAX 2 (Q1 46:31) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith..

The second quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the IND 2 (Q2 35:25) — (5:25) 32-M.Jones-Drew left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q2 35:21) — 10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-A.Podlesh.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the JAX 14 (Q2 30:11); Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the JAX 2 (Q2 30:06) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith..

The third quarter: Jacksonville Jaguars won the period 7–0. Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the IND 2 (Q3 23:11) — (8:11) 9-D.Garrard pass short right to 89-M.Lewis for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q3 23:06) — 10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-A.Podlesh..

The fourth quarter: Jacksonville Jaguars won the period 11–7. Jacksonville Jaguars connected on a field goal from the IND 29 (Q4 11:41) — (11:41) 10-J.Scobee 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-A.Podlesh.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the JAX 1 (Q4 8:30) — (8:30) 18-P.Manning pass short middle to 45-L.Lawton for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the JAX 2 (Q4 8:26) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the IND 17 (Q4 2:53) — (2:53) (Shotgun) 9-D.Garrard pass deep middle to 86-D.Northcutt for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars registered a safety from the IND 2 (Q4 2:47) — TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 9-D.Garrard rushes right end. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 12:14) — (12:14) (Shotgun) 9-D.Garrard sacked at IND 29 for -11 yards (sack split by 28-M.Jackson and 54-F.Keiaho). [WPA -12.5% · EPA -1.77]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q1 46:37) — (1:37) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep left to 87-R.Wayne for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +12.2% · EPA +5.82]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 2:53) — (2:53) (Shotgun) 9-D.Garrard pass deep middle to 86-D.Northcutt for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +11.5% · EPA +3.04]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q1 55:18) — (10:18) 9-D.Garrard sacked at JAX 6 for -6 yards (98-R.Mathis). FUMBLES (98-R.Mathis), recovered by JAX-33-G.Jones at JAX 11. 33-G.Jones to JAX 11 for no gain (96-K.Dawson). Indianapolis challenged th [WPA -11.5% · EPA -3.88]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q3 18:29) — (3:29) 18-P.Manning pass short middle intended for 44-D.Clark INTERCEPTED by 25-R.Nelson at JAX -4. 25-R.Nelson to JAX 33 for 37 yards (18-P.Manning). [WPA -11.4% · EPA -5.87]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 6:51) — (6:51) 9-D.Garrard pass short middle intended for 89-M.Lewis INTERCEPTED by 41-A.Bethea (58-G.Brackett) at IND 2. 41-A.Bethea to IND 32 for 30 yards (33-G.Jones). Pass tipped by Bracket (#58). [WPA -9.7% · EPA -6.37]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q3 18:29) — (3:29) 18-P.Manning pass short middle intended for 44-D.Clark INTERCEPTED by 25-R.Nelson at JAX -4. 25-R.Nelson to JAX 33 for 37 yards (18-P.Manning). [WPA -11.4% · EPA -5.87]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q1 46:37) — (1:37) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep left to 87-R.Wayne for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +12.2% · EPA +5.82]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q1 50:01) — (5:01) 10-J.Scobee 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-A.Podlesh. [WPA -8.0% · EPA -4.12]

Quarterback report card

P.Manning led all passers in efficiency for Indianapolis Colts, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• P.Manning (Indianapolis Colts) · 33 dropbacks · 60.6% completion · +7.8% CPOE · +0.49 EPA/play · +16.26 total EPA
• D.Garrard (Jacksonville Jaguars) · 33 dropbacks · 72.7% completion · +20.8% CPOE · +0.19 EPA/play · +6.43 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Jacksonville Jaguars +0.16, Indianapolis Colts +0.19) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Indianapolis Colts: 8 drives, +12.65 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• Jacksonville Jaguars: 8 drives, +12.80 total EPA, 4 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Indianapolis Colts leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• P. Manning (Indianapolis Colts) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• P. Manning (IND) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• D. Garrard (JAX) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q1 54:34 · JAX 5 · Score 0-6
   (9:34) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 44-D.Clark for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q1 54:30 · JAX 2 · Score 0-7
   4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
3. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q1 46:37 · JAX 48 · Score 0-13
   (1:37) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep left to 87-R.Wayne for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q1 46:31 · JAX 2 · Score 0-14
   4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q2 35:25 · IND 2 · Score 6-14
   (5:25) 32-M.Jones-Drew left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q2 35:21 · IND 2 · Score 7-14
   10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-A.Podlesh.
7. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q2 30:11 · JAX 14 · Score 7-20
   (:11) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 44-D.Clark for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on JAX-29-B.Williams, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
8. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q2 30:06 · JAX 2 · Score 7-21
   4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
9. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q3 23:11 · IND 2 · Score 13-21
   (8:11) 9-D.Garrard pass short right to 89-M.Lewis for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q3 23:06 · IND 2 · Score 14-21
    10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-A.Podlesh.
11. Jacksonville Jaguars FG (+3) — Q4 11:41 · IND 29 · Score 17-21
    (11:41) 10-J.Scobee 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-A.Podlesh.
12. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q4 8:30 · JAX 1 · Score 17-27
    (8:30) 18-P.Manning pass short middle to 45-L.Lawton for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
13. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q4 8:26 · JAX 2 · Score 17-28
    4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
14. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q4 2:53 · IND 17 · Score 23-28
    (2:53) (Shotgun) 9-D.Garrard pass deep middle to 86-D.Northcutt for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15. Jacksonville Jaguars Safety (+2) — Q4 2:47 · IND 2 · Score 25-28
    TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 9-D.Garrard rushes right end. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.