Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Green Bay Packers: 2004 Week 15 Recap

Game story

In Week 15 of the 2004 NFL season on 2004-12-19, the Jacksonville Jaguars took care of business against the Green Bay Packers, pulling away with a 28–25 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 17 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

B. Favre (Green Bay Packers) paced the passing game, with +11.76 total EPA.

On the individual side, J. Walker (Green Bay Packers) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +13.65 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-25.0% win probability) landed in the third quarter when Green Bay Packers changed the game: (5:34) 4-B.Favre pass intended for 88-B.Franks INTERCEPTED by 27-R.Mathis at JAX -6. Touchback (88-B.Franks).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 J. Walker · Green Bay Packers · Receiving · +13.65 total EPA · 11 snaps · +1.24 EPA/play
2. 2 B. Favre · Green Bay Packers · Passing · +11.76 total EPA · 49 snaps · +0.24 EPA/play
3. 3 J. Smith · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +10.17 total EPA · 4 snaps · +2.54 EPA/play
4. 4 D. Driver · Green Bay Packers · Receiving · +7.69 total EPA · 5 snaps · +1.54 EPA/play
5. 5 F. Taylor · Jacksonville Jaguars · Rushing · +6.37 total EPA · 25 snaps · +0.25 EPA/play
6. 6 R. Ferguson · Green Bay Packers · Receiving · +4.74 total EPA · 2 snaps · +2.37 EPA/play
7. 7 A. Chatman · Green Bay Packers · Receiving · +3.91 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.98 EPA/play
8. 8 G. Jones · Jacksonville Jaguars · Rushing · +1.41 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.16 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Jacksonville Jaguars — J. Smith (B. Leftwich pass) (Q1 58:02)
• Green Bay Packers — D. Sharper (Q2 34:49)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — J. Smith (B. Leftwich pass) (Q2 32:34)
• Green Bay Packers — D. Driver (B. Favre pass) (Q3 26:52)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — F. Taylor (Q3 25:22)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — G. Jones (Q4 9:53)
• Green Bay Packers — A. Chatman (B. Favre pass) (Q4 1:11)

Field goals

• Green Bay Packers — R. Longwell (Q2 43:39)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Jacksonville Jaguars won the period 7–0. Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the GB 31 (Q1 58:02) — (13:02) 7-B.Leftwich pass to 82-J.Smith for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on GB-31-A.Harris, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the GB 2 (Q1 57:56) — 10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-2-C.Hanson..

The second quarter: Green Bay Packers won the period 10–7. Green Bay Packers connected on a field goal from the JAX 17 (Q2 43:39) — (13:39) 8-R.Longwell 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-R.Davis, Holder-9-B.Barker.; Green Bay Packers found the end zone from the GB 76 (Q2 34:49); Green Bay Packers added 1 points from the JAX 2 (Q2 34:44) — 8-R.Longwell extra point is GOOD, Center-60-R.Davis, Holder-9-B.Barker.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the GB 16 (Q2 32:34) — (2:34) 7-B.Leftwich pass to 82-J.Smith for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the GB 2 (Q2 32:28) — 10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-2-C.Hanson..

The third quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. Green Bay Packers found the end zone from the JAX 32 (Q3 26:52) — (11:52) 4-B.Favre pass to 80-D.Driver for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Green Bay Packers added 1 points from the JAX 2 (Q3 26:44) — 8-R.Longwell extra point is GOOD, Center-60-R.Davis, Holder-9-B.Barker.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the GB 37 (Q3 25:22) — (10:22) 28-F.Taylor up the middle for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the GB 2 (Q3 25:15) — 10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-2-C.Hanson..

The fourth quarter: Green Bay Packers won the period 8–7. Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the GB 1 (Q4 9:53) — (9:53) 33-G.Jones left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the GB 2 (Q4 9:49) — 10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-2-C.Hanson.; Green Bay Packers found the end zone from the JAX 6 (Q4 1:11) — (1:11) 4-B.Favre pass to 83-A.Chatman for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Green Bay Packers registered a safety from the JAX 2 (Q4 1:08) — TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 4-B.Favre pass to 80-D.Driver is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Green Bay Packers (Q3 20:34) — (5:34) 4-B.Favre pass intended for 88-B.Franks INTERCEPTED by 27-R.Mathis at JAX -6. Touchback (88-B.Franks). [WPA -25.0% · EPA -6.02]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q2 34:49) — (4:49) (Shotgun) 7-B.Leftwich sacked at JAX 16 for -8 yards (94-K.Gbaja-Biamila). FUMBLES (94-K.Gbaja-Biamila), recovered by JAX-67-V.Manuwai at JAX 18. 67-V.Manuwai to JAX 18 for no gain (42-D.Sharpe [WPA -22.9% · EPA -6.95]
• Green Bay Packers (Q2 31:17) — (1:17) 4-B.Favre FUMBLES (Aborted) at JAX 30, RECOVERED by JAX-52-D.Smith at JAX 31. 52-D.Smith to JAX 31 for no gain (89-R.Ferguson). [WPA -15.4% · EPA -4.24]
• Green Bay Packers (Q3 26:52) — (11:52) 4-B.Favre pass to 80-D.Driver for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +15.1% · EPA +3.73]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q3 25:22) — (10:22) 28-F.Taylor up the middle for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +14.5% · EPA +4.57]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q2 34:49) — (4:49) (Shotgun) 7-B.Leftwich sacked at JAX 16 for -8 yards (94-K.Gbaja-Biamila). FUMBLES (94-K.Gbaja-Biamila), recovered by JAX-67-V.Manuwai at JAX 18. 67-V.Manuwai to JAX 18 for no gain (42-D.Sharpe [WPA -22.9% · EPA -6.95]
• Green Bay Packers (Q3 20:34) — (5:34) 4-B.Favre pass intended for 88-B.Franks INTERCEPTED by 27-R.Mathis at JAX -6. Touchback (88-B.Franks). [WPA -25.0% · EPA -6.02]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q3 25:22) — (10:22) 28-F.Taylor up the middle for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +14.5% · EPA +4.57]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q1 58:50) — (13:50) 28-F.Taylor up the middle to GB 31 for 46 yards (42-D.Sharper). [WPA +12.6% · EPA +4.30]

Quarterback report card

B.Favre led all passers in efficiency for Green Bay Packers, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• B.Favre (Green Bay Packers) · 49 dropbacks · 61.2% completion · +0.24 EPA/play · +11.76 total EPA
• B.Leftwich (Jacksonville Jaguars) · 26 dropbacks · 34.6% completion · +0.02 EPA/play · +0.48 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Jacksonville Jaguars generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.11 vs +0.03), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Green Bay Packers: 14 drives, +2.51 total EPA, 3 scoring drives
• Jacksonville Jaguars: 13 drives, +8.95 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Jacksonville Jaguars leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• J. Walker (Green Bay Packers) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q1 58:02 · GB 31 · Score 6-0
   (13:02) 7-B.Leftwich pass to 82-J.Smith for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on GB-31-A.Harris, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q1 57:56 · GB 2 · Score 7-0
   10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-2-C.Hanson.
3. Green Bay Packers FG (+3) — Q2 43:39 · JAX 17 · Score 7-3
   (13:39) 8-R.Longwell 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-R.Davis, Holder-9-B.Barker.
4. Green Bay Packers TD (+6) — Q2 34:49 · GB 76 · Score 7-9
   (4:49) (Shotgun) 7-B.Leftwich sacked at JAX 16 for -8 yards (94-K.Gbaja-Biamila). FUMBLES (94-K.Gbaja-Biamila), recovered by JAX-67-V.Manuwai at JAX 18. 67-V.Ma
5. Green Bay Packers XP (+1) — Q2 34:44 · JAX 2 · Score 7-10
   8-R.Longwell extra point is GOOD, Center-60-R.Davis, Holder-9-B.Barker.
6. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q2 32:34 · GB 16 · Score 13-10
   (2:34) 7-B.Leftwich pass to 82-J.Smith for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q2 32:28 · GB 2 · Score 14-10
   10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-2-C.Hanson.
8. Green Bay Packers TD (+6) — Q3 26:52 · JAX 32 · Score 14-16
   (11:52) 4-B.Favre pass to 80-D.Driver for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9. Green Bay Packers XP (+1) — Q3 26:44 · JAX 2 · Score 14-17
   8-R.Longwell extra point is GOOD, Center-60-R.Davis, Holder-9-B.Barker.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q3 25:22 · GB 37 · Score 20-17
    (10:22) 28-F.Taylor up the middle for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q3 25:15 · GB 2 · Score 21-17
    10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-2-C.Hanson.
12. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q4 9:53 · GB 1 · Score 27-17
    (9:53) 33-G.Jones left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
13. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q4 9:49 · GB 2 · Score 28-17
    10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-2-C.Hanson.
14. Green Bay Packers TD (+6) — Q4 1:11 · JAX 6 · Score 28-23
    (1:11) 4-B.Favre pass to 83-A.Chatman for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15. Green Bay Packers Safety (+2) — Q4 1:08 · JAX 2 · Score 28-25
    TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 4-B.Favre pass to 80-D.Driver is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.