Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills: 2024 Week 3 Recap

Game story

In Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season on 2024-09-23, the Buffalo Bills took care of business against the Jacksonville Jaguars, pulling away with a 47–10 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 30 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

T. Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars) paced the passing game, with -17.32 total EPA, and -5.6% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, J. Allen (Buffalo Bills) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +25.99 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+11.9% win probability) landed in the opening quarter when Buffalo Bills changed the game: (13:01) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 10-K.Shakir ran ob at JAX 32 for 12 yards (5-A.Cisco).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 J. Allen · Buffalo Bills · Passing · +25.99 total EPA · 38 snaps · +0.68 EPA/play
2. 2 K. Shakir · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +10.75 total EPA · 6 snaps · +1.79 EPA/play
3. 3 T. Etienne · Jacksonville Jaguars · Rushing · +6.12 total EPA · 11 snaps · +0.56 EPA/play
4. 4 C. Kirk · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +3.95 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.40 EPA/play
5. 5 D. Kincaid · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +3.79 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.76 EPA/play
6. 6 J. Allen · Buffalo Bills · Rushing · +3.00 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.50 EPA/play
7. 7 Ty. Johnson · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +2.84 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.95 EPA/play
8. 8 K. Coleman · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +2.81 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.81 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Buffalo Bills — J. Cook (Q1 54:39)
• Buffalo Bills — D. Kincaid (J. Allen pass) (Q1 48:34)
• Buffalo Bills — K. Coleman (J. Allen pass) (Q2 36:25)
• Buffalo Bills — K. Shakir (J. Allen pass) (Q2 32:11)
• Buffalo Bills — J. Allen (Q2 30:24)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — B. Strange (T. Lawrence pass) (Q3 26:20)
• Buffalo Bills — R. Davis (Q4 4:08)

Field goals

• Jacksonville Jaguars — C. Little (Q2 40:43)
• Buffalo Bills — T. Bass (Q3 20:06)
• Buffalo Bills — T. Bass (Q4 7:48)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 13–0. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the JAX 6 (Q1 54:39) — (9:39) 4-J.Cook left tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the JAX 6 (Q1 48:34) — (3:34) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 86-D.Kincaid for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 9 yds. into end zone, crossing from middle.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the JAX 15 (Q1 48:25) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin..

The second quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 27–3. Jacksonville Jaguars connected on a field goal from the BUF 23 (Q2 40:43) — (10:43) 39-C.Little 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the JAX 24 (Q2 36:25); Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the JAX 15 (Q2 36:19) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the JAX 27 (Q2 32:11) — (2:11) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at JAX 23, crossing from middle.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the JAX 15 (Q2 32:04) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the JAX 16 (Q2 30:24) — (:24) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 26-Ty.Johnson for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in front corner of end zone.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the JAX 15 (Q2 30:19) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin..

The third quarter: Jacksonville Jaguars won the period 7–3. Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the BUF 6 (Q3 26:20) — (11:20) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 85-B.Strange for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 8 yds. into end zone, near sideline.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q3 26:15) — 39-C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the JAX 9 (Q3 20:06) — (5:06) 2-T.Bass 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin..

The fourth quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 10–0. Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the JAX 25 (Q4 7:48) — (7:48) 2-T.Bass 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the JAX 3 (Q4 4:08) — (4:08) 22-R.Davis right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the JAX 15 (Q4 4:04) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Buffalo Bills (Q1 58:01) — (13:01) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 10-K.Shakir ran ob at JAX 32 for 12 yards (5-A.Cisco). [WPA +11.9% · EPA +3.37]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 52:11) — (7:11) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 86-D.Kincaid pushed ob at JAX 20 for 28 yards (26-A.Johnson). [WPA +5.8% · EPA +2.59]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q2 34:28) — (4:28) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right intended for 7-B.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 3-D.Hamlin at BUF 40. 3-D.Hamlin to JAX 41 for 19 yards (89-L.Farrell). Receiver overthrown (at BUF 45). [WPA -5.4% · EPA -4.87]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 55:21) — (10:21) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen up the middle to JAX 6 for 9 yards (33-D.Lloyd). [WPA +5.3% · EPA +1.56]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 48:34) — (3:34) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 86-D.Kincaid for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 9 yds. into end zone, crossing from middle. [WPA +5.1% · EPA +2.74]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 6:31) — (6:31) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones sacked at JAX 37 for -8 yards (56-J.Solomon). FUMBLES (56-J.Solomon) [56-J.Solomon], touched at JAX 28, RECOVERED by BUF-99-C.Toohill at JAX 21. [WPA +0.0% · EPA -5.83]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q2 34:28) — (4:28) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right intended for 7-B.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 3-D.Hamlin at BUF 40. 3-D.Hamlin to JAX 41 for 19 yards (89-L.Farrell). Receiver overthrown (at BUF 45). [WPA -5.4% · EPA -4.87]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 32:11) — (2:11) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at JAX 23, crossing from middle. [WPA +4.4% · EPA +4.33]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 14:13) — (14:13) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at BUF 27 for -10 yards (40-V.Miller). [WPA -0.1% · EPA -3.60]

Quarterback report card

T.Lawrence led all passers in efficiency for Jacksonville Jaguars, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• T.Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars) · 43 dropbacks · 48.8% completion · -5.6% CPOE · -0.40 EPA/play · -17.32 total EPA
• J.Allen (Buffalo Bills) · 38 dropbacks · 60.5% completion · +12.8% CPOE · +0.68 EPA/play · +25.99 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Buffalo Bills held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.35 vs -0.16), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Buffalo Bills: 10 drives, +26.64 total EPA, 8 scoring drives
• Jacksonville Jaguars: 10 drives, -14.47 total EPA, 2 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Buffalo Bills leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• J. Allen (Buffalo Bills) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• T. Lawrence (JAX) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.
• J. Allen (BUF) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q1 54:39 · JAX 6 · Score 0-6
   (9:39) 4-J.Cook left tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q1 48:34 · JAX 6 · Score 0-12
   (3:34) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 86-D.Kincaid for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 9 yds. into end zone, crossing from middle.
3. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q1 48:25 · JAX 15 · Score 0-13
   2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars FG (+3) — Q2 40:43 · BUF 23 · Score 3-13
   (10:43) 39-C.Little 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
5. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 36:25 · JAX 24 · Score 3-19
   (6:25) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 0-K.Coleman for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at JAX 5, angling to corner of end zone.
6. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 36:19 · JAX 15 · Score 3-20
   2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
7. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 32:11 · JAX 27 · Score 3-26
   (2:11) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at JAX 23, crossing from middle.
8. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 32:04 · JAX 15 · Score 3-27
   2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
9. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 30:24 · JAX 16 · Score 3-33
   (:24) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 26-Ty.Johnson for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in front corner of end zone.
10. Buffalo Bills TD (+7) — Q2 30:19 · JAX 15 · Score 3-34
    2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
11. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q3 26:20 · BUF 6 · Score 9-34
    (11:20) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 85-B.Strange for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 8 yds. into end zone, near sideline.
12. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q3 26:15 · BUF 15 · Score 10-34
    39-C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
13. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q3 20:06 · JAX 9 · Score 10-37
    (5:06) 2-T.Bass 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
14. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q4 7:48 · JAX 25 · Score 10-40
    (7:48) 2-T.Bass 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
15. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q4 4:08 · JAX 3 · Score 10-46
    (4:08) 22-R.Davis right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q4 4:04 · JAX 15 · Score 10-47
    2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.