Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills: 2016 Week 12 Recap

Game story

In Week 12 of the 2016 NFL season on 2016-11-27, the Buffalo Bills took care of business against the Jacksonville Jaguars, pulling away with a 28–21 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q3 with 21 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

B. Bortles (Jacksonville Jaguars) paced the passing game, with +6.00 total EPA, and -8.5% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, T. Taylor (Buffalo Bills) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +9.62 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+17.5% win probability) landed in the third quarter when Buffalo Bills changed the game: (15:00) (Shotgun) 25-L.McCoy up the middle for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 T. Taylor · Buffalo Bills · Passing · +9.62 total EPA · 29 snaps · +0.33 EPA/play
2. 2 B. Bortles · Jacksonville Jaguars · Passing · +6.00 total EPA · 34 snaps · +0.18 EPA/play
3. 3 S. Watkins · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +4.47 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.49 EPA/play
4. 4 B. Bortles · Jacksonville Jaguars · Rushing · +3.17 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.06 EPA/play
5. 5 M. Lee · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +3.02 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.50 EPA/play
6. 6 J. Hunter · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +2.92 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.92 EPA/play
7. 7 N. Sterling · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +2.79 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.93 EPA/play
8. 8 L. McCoy · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +2.14 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.07 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Jacksonville Jaguars — C. Ivory (Q1 53:21)
• Buffalo Bills — L. McCoy (Q2 30:24)
• Buffalo Bills — L. McCoy (Q3 30:00)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — M. Lee (B. Bortles pass) (Q3 24:32)
• Buffalo Bills — T. Taylor (Q3 18:07)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — A. Hurns (B. Bortles pass) (Q4 15:00)
• Buffalo Bills — J. Hunter (T. Taylor pass) (Q4 10:52)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Jacksonville Jaguars won the period 7–0. Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the BUF 2 (Q1 53:21) — (8:21) 33-C.Ivory right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q1 53:15) — 2-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman. Kick bounced off left upright before going through..

The second quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 6–0. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the JAX 7 (Q2 30:24) — (:24) (Shotgun) 25-L.McCoy right tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN..

The third quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 14–7. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the JAX 75 (Q3 30:00) — (15:00) (Shotgun) 25-L.McCoy up the middle for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the JAX 15 (Q3 29:47) — 2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the BUF 20 (Q3 24:32) — (9:32) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep middle to 11-M.Lee for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-K.Williams]. Caught at BUF 1.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q3 24:26) — 2-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the JAX 7 (Q3 18:07) — (3:07) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor scrambles left tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the JAX 15 (Q3 18:00) — 2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt..

The fourth quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 8–7. Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the BUF 12 (Q4 15:00); Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q4 14:52) — 2-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the JAX 16 (Q4 10:52) — (10:52) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep right to 17-J.Hunter for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in front corner of end zone.; Buffalo Bills registered a safety from the JAX 2 (Q4 10:46) — TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 25-L.McCoy rushes left guard. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Buffalo Bills (Q3 30:00) — (15:00) (Shotgun) 25-L.McCoy up the middle for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +17.5% · EPA +5.54]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 10:52) — (10:52) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep right to 17-J.Hunter for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in front corner of end zone. [WPA +14.1% · EPA +2.92]
• Buffalo Bills (Q3 19:34) — (4:34) 5-T.Taylor pass deep right to 14-S.Watkins pushed ob at JAX 13 for 62 yards (20-J.Ramsey). Caught along sideline at JAX 27. [WPA +13.2% · EPA +3.73]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q1 56:07) — (11:07) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles scrambles left guard to BUF 22 for 27 yards. [WPA +11.7% · EPA +3.09]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q2 31:38) — (1:38) 3-B.Nortman punts 43 yards to BUF 30, Center-46-C.Tinker. 15-B.Tate to JAX 27 for 43 yards (25-P.Thompson). PENALTY on JAX-44-M.Jack, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at JAX 27. [WPA -10.6% · EPA -3.59]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Buffalo Bills (Q3 30:00) — (15:00) (Shotgun) 25-L.McCoy up the middle for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +17.5% · EPA +5.54]
• Buffalo Bills (Q3 19:34) — (4:34) 5-T.Taylor pass deep right to 14-S.Watkins pushed ob at JAX 13 for 62 yards (20-J.Ramsey). Caught along sideline at JAX 27. [WPA +13.2% · EPA +3.73]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q2 31:38) — (1:38) 3-B.Nortman punts 43 yards to BUF 30, Center-46-C.Tinker. 15-B.Tate to JAX 27 for 43 yards (25-P.Thompson). PENALTY on JAX-44-M.Jack, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at JAX 27. [WPA -10.6% · EPA -3.59]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q3 24:32) — (9:32) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep middle to 11-M.Lee for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-K.Williams]. Caught at BUF 1. [WPA +9.6% · EPA +3.52]

Quarterback report card

B.Bortles led all passers in efficiency for Jacksonville Jaguars, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• B.Bortles (Jacksonville Jaguars) · 34 dropbacks · 38.2% completion · -8.5% CPOE · +0.18 EPA/play · +6.00 total EPA
• T.Taylor (Buffalo Bills) · 29 dropbacks · 41.4% completion · +0.0% CPOE · +0.33 EPA/play · +9.62 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Buffalo Bills held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.09 vs +0.00), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Buffalo Bills: 11 drives, +6.21 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• Jacksonville Jaguars: 11 drives, +0.33 total EPA, 3 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Buffalo Bills leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• T. Taylor (Buffalo Bills) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• B. Bortles (JAX) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q1 53:21 · BUF 2 · Score 6-0
   (8:21) 33-C.Ivory right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q1 53:15 · BUF 15 · Score 7-0
   2-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman. Kick bounced off left upright before going through.
3. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 30:24 · JAX 7 · Score 7-6
   (:24) (Shotgun) 25-L.McCoy right tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q3 30:00 · JAX 75 · Score 7-12
   (15:00) (Shotgun) 25-L.McCoy up the middle for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q3 29:47 · JAX 15 · Score 7-13
   2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
6. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q3 24:32 · BUF 20 · Score 13-13
   (9:32) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep middle to 11-M.Lee for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-K.Williams]. Caught at BUF 1.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q3 24:26 · BUF 15 · Score 14-13
   2-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.
8. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q3 18:07 · JAX 7 · Score 14-19
   (3:07) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor scrambles left tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q3 18:00 · JAX 15 · Score 14-20
   2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q4 15:00 · BUF 12 · Score 20-20
    (15:00) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left to 88-A.Hurns for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX-88-A.Hurns was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. Swi
11. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q4 14:52 · BUF 15 · Score 21-20
    2-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.
12. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q4 10:52 · JAX 16 · Score 21-26
    (10:52) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep right to 17-J.Hunter for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in front corner of end zone.
13. Buffalo Bills Safety (+2) — Q4 10:46 · JAX 2 · Score 21-28
    TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 25-L.McCoy rushes left guard. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.