Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills: 2012 Week 13 Recap

Game story

In Week 13 of the 2012 NFL season on 2012-12-02, the Buffalo Bills took care of business against the Jacksonville Jaguars, pulling away with a 34–18 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 20 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

C. Henne (Jacksonville Jaguars) paced the passing game, with -13.00 total EPA, and -11.0% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, C. Shorts (Jacksonville Jaguars) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +4.17 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-56.6% win probability) landed in the second quarter when Jacksonville Jaguars changed the game: End of half - 2.27 pm

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 C. Shorts · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +4.17 total EPA · 12 snaps · +0.35 EPA/play
2. 2 T. Graham · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +3.93 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.96 EPA/play
3. 3 M. Lewis · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +2.90 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.41 EPA/play
4. 4 C. Henne · Jacksonville Jaguars · Rushing · +2.57 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.86 EPA/play
5. 5 B. Smith · Buffalo Bills · Rushing · +1.91 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.96 EPA/play
6. 6 C. Spiller · Buffalo Bills · Rushing · +1.50 total EPA · 15 snaps · +0.10 EPA/play
7. 7 R. Fitzpatrick · Buffalo Bills · Passing · +1.17 total EPA · 20 snaps · +0.06 EPA/play
8. 8 B. Smith · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +0.51 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.25 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Buffalo Bills — R. Fitzpatrick (Q1 54:14)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — C. Henne (Q2 33:52)
• Buffalo Bills — S. Chandler (R. Fitzpatrick pass) (Q2 32:00)
• Buffalo Bills — R. Fitzpatrick (Q3 26:11)
• Buffalo Bills — C. Spiller (Q4 13:38)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — C. Shorts (C. Henne pass) (Q4 10:51)

Field goals

• Jacksonville Jaguars — J. Scobee (Q2 41:51)
• Buffalo Bills — R. Lindell (Q2 30:34)
• Buffalo Bills — R. Lindell (Q3 17:19)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 7–0. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the JAX 1 (Q1 54:14) — (9:14) 14-R.Fitzpatrick up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the JAX 2 (Q1 54:10) — 9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-S.Powell..

The second quarter: The quarter finished even at 10–10. Jacksonville Jaguars connected on a field goal from the BUF 18 (Q2 41:51) — (11:51) 10-J.Scobee 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Cain, Holder-19-B.Anger.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the BUF 1 (Q2 33:52) — (3:52) 7-C.Henne right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Bootleg.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q2 33:47) — 10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Cain, Holder-19-B.Anger.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the JAX 11 (Q2 32:00) — (2:00) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 84-S.Chandler for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 6 yds. into end zone.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the JAX 2 (Q2 31:56); Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the JAX 11 (Q2 30:34) — (:34) 9-R.Lindell 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-S.Powell..

The third quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 10–0. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the JAX 13 (Q3 26:11) — (11:11) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 13-St.Johnson for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 2 yds. into end zone, near sideline.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the JAX 2 (Q3 26:06) — 9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-S.Powell.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the JAX 32 (Q3 17:19) — (2:19) 9-R.Lindell 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-S.Powell..

The fourth quarter: Jacksonville Jaguars won the period 8–7. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the JAX 44 (Q4 13:38) — (13:38) 28-C.Spiller left tackle for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Key block: S.Chandler.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the JAX 2 (Q4 13:29) — 9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-S.Powell.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the BUF 5 (Q4 10:51); Jacksonville Jaguars registered a safety from the BUF 2 (Q4 10:47) — TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 24-M.Owens rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q2) — End of half - 2.27 pm [WPA -56.6% · EPA -1.63]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 33:47) — 10-J.Scobee kicks 61 yards from JAX 35 to BUF 4. 81-M.Easley pushed ob at JAX 41 for 55 yards (20-M.Harris). PENALTY on JAX-39-R.Murphy, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 41. [WPA +12.7% · EPA +3.22]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q2 31:56) — (1:56) (Shotgun) 7-C.Henne sacked at JAX 13 for -7 yards (94-M.Williams). FUMBLES (94-M.Williams), RECOVERED by BUF-94-M.Williams at JAX 14. 94-M.Williams to JAX 14 for no gain (78-C.Bradfield). [WPA -11.6% · EPA -4.84]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 55:39) — (10:39) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep middle to 11-T.Graham to JAX 1 for 51 yards (22-K.Rutland, 42-C.Prosinski). Caught at JAX 15, slanting from left. [WPA +11.0% · EPA +4.41]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 32:00) — (2:00) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 84-S.Chandler for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 6 yds. into end zone. [WPA +10.8% · EPA +3.29]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 11:00) — (11:00) 19-B.Anger punts 51 yards to BUF 6, Center-48-J.Cain. 26-J.Rogers MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by JAX-38-A.Blake at BUF 5. [WPA +0.3% · EPA +6.14]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q2 31:56) — (1:56) (Shotgun) 7-C.Henne sacked at JAX 13 for -7 yards (94-M.Williams). FUMBLES (94-M.Williams), RECOVERED by BUF-94-M.Williams at JAX 14. 94-M.Williams to JAX 14 for no gain (78-C.Bradfield). [WPA -11.6% · EPA -4.84]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 55:39) — (10:39) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep middle to 11-T.Graham to JAX 1 for 51 yards (22-K.Rutland, 42-C.Prosinski). Caught at JAX 15, slanting from left. [WPA +11.0% · EPA +4.41]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 13:38) — (13:38) 28-C.Spiller left tackle for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Key block: S.Chandler. [WPA +1.1% · EPA +4.26]

Quarterback report card

C.Henne led all passers in efficiency for Jacksonville Jaguars, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• C.Henne (Jacksonville Jaguars) · 52 dropbacks · 36.5% completion · -11.0% CPOE · -0.25 EPA/play · -13.00 total EPA
• R.Fitzpatrick (Buffalo Bills) · 20 dropbacks · 45.0% completion · -6.1% CPOE · +0.06 EPA/play · +1.17 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Buffalo Bills held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.08 vs -0.10), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Buffalo Bills: 13 drives, +6.95 total EPA, 6 scoring drives
• Jacksonville Jaguars: 14 drives, -8.79 total EPA, 3 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Buffalo Bills leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• C. Shorts (Jacksonville Jaguars) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• C. Henne (JAX) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.
• R. Fitzpatrick (BUF) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q1 54:14 · JAX 1 · Score 0-6
   (9:14) 14-R.Fitzpatrick up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q1 54:10 · JAX 2 · Score 0-7
   9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-S.Powell.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars FG (+3) — Q2 41:51 · BUF 18 · Score 3-7
   (11:51) 10-J.Scobee 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Cain, Holder-19-B.Anger.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q2 33:52 · BUF 1 · Score 9-7
   (3:52) 7-C.Henne right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Bootleg.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q2 33:47 · BUF 2 · Score 10-7
   10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Cain, Holder-19-B.Anger.
6. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 32:00 · JAX 11 · Score 10-13
   (2:00) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 84-S.Chandler for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 6 yds. into end zone.
7. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 31:56 · JAX 2 · Score 10-14
   9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-S.Powell. PENALTY on JAX-90-A.Branch, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced between downs.
8. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q2 30:34 · JAX 11 · Score 10-17
   (:34) 9-R.Lindell 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-S.Powell.
9. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q3 26:11 · JAX 13 · Score 10-23
   (11:11) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 13-St.Johnson for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 2 yds. into end zone, near sideline.
10. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q3 26:06 · JAX 2 · Score 10-24
    9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-S.Powell.
11. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q3 17:19 · JAX 32 · Score 10-27
    (2:19) 9-R.Lindell 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-S.Powell.
12. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q4 13:38 · JAX 44 · Score 10-33
    (13:38) 28-C.Spiller left tackle for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Key block: S.Chandler.
13. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q4 13:29 · JAX 2 · Score 10-34
    9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-S.Powell.
14. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q4 10:51 · BUF 5 · Score 16-34
    (10:51) (Shotgun) 7-C.Henne pass short middle to 84-C.Shorts for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF-33-R.Brooks was injured during the play. Caught at goal line, slanting
15. Jacksonville Jaguars Safety (+2) — Q4 10:47 · BUF 2 · Score 18-34
    TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 24-M.Owens rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.