Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills: 2006 Week 12 Recap

Game story

In Week 12 of the 2006 NFL season on 2006-11-26, the Buffalo Bills took care of business against the Jacksonville Jaguars, pulling away with a 27–24 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 24 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

D. Garrard (Jacksonville Jaguars) paced the passing game, with +0.73 total EPA, and +12.9% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, J. Losman (Buffalo Bills) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +9.30 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+19.3% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Buffalo Bills changed the game: (:03) 9-R.Lindell 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Schneck, Holder-8-B.Moorman.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 J. Losman · Buffalo Bills · Passing · +9.30 total EPA · 31 snaps · +0.30 EPA/play
2. 2 M. Jones-Drew · Jacksonville Jaguars · Rushing · +6.51 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.81 EPA/play
3. 3 L. Evans · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +6.45 total EPA · 5 snaps · +1.29 EPA/play
4. 4 M. Jones-Drew · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +2.91 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.58 EPA/play
5. 5 B. Cieslak · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +2.38 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.79 EPA/play
6. 6 D. Garrard · Jacksonville Jaguars · Rushing · +2.21 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.21 EPA/play
7. 7 M. Jones · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +2.10 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.05 EPA/play
8. 8 W. McGahee · Buffalo Bills · Rushing · +1.74 total EPA · 13 snaps · +0.13 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Buffalo Bills — W. McGahee (Q1 48:29)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — M. Jones-Drew (Q2 40:34)
• Buffalo Bills — W. McGahee (Q2 36:43)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — M. Lewis (D. Garrard pass) (Q2 31:17)
• Buffalo Bills — R. Parrish (Q3 19:11)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — M. Jones (D. Garrard pass) (Q4 0:34)

Field goals

• Buffalo Bills — R. Lindell (Q2 43:03)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — J. Scobee (Q4 15:00)
• Buffalo Bills — R. Lindell (Q4 0:03)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 7–0. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the JAX 4 (Q1 48:29) — (3:29) 21-W.McGahee left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Key block: T.Pennington.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the JAX 2 (Q1 48:23) — 9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-54-M.Schneck, Holder-8-B.Moorman..

The second quarter: Jacksonville Jaguars won the period 14–10. Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the JAX 3 (Q2 43:03) — (13:03) 9-R.Lindell 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Schneck, Holder-8-B.Moorman.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the BUF 14 (Q2 40:34) — (10:34) 32-M.Jones-Drew right guard for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q2 40:25); Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the JAX 30 (Q2 36:43); Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the JAX 2 (Q2 36:32) — 9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-54-M.Schneck, Holder-8-B.Moorman.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the BUF 1 (Q2 31:17) — (1:17) 9-D.Garrard pass short left to 89-M.Lewis for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 8 yds. into end zone; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q2 31:11) — 10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-2-C.Hanson..

The third quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 7–0. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the BUF 70 (Q3 19:11); Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the JAX 2 (Q3 18:46) — 9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-54-M.Schneck, Holder-8-B.Moorman..

The fourth quarter: Jacksonville Jaguars won the period 10–3. Jacksonville Jaguars connected on a field goal from the BUF 9 (Q4 15:00) — (15:00) 10-J.Scobee 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-2-C.Hanson.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the BUF 3 (Q4 0:34) — (:34) 9-D.Garrard pass short right to 18-M.Jones for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 3 yds. into end zone, along right sideline.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q4 0:28) — 10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-2-C.Hanson.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the JAX 24 (Q4 0:03) — (:03) 9-R.Lindell 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Schneck, Holder-8-B.Moorman..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Buffalo Bills (Q4 0:03) — (:03) 9-R.Lindell 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Schneck, Holder-8-B.Moorman. [WPA +19.3% · EPA +0.64]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q3 19:11) — (4:11) 2-C.Hanson punts 52 yards to BUF 18, Center-88-J.Zelenka. 11-R.Parrish for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Key blocks: D.Whitner, K.Thomas. PENALTY on BUF, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced betw [WPA -15.5% · EPA -5.54]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 1:13) — (1:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Garrard scrambles up the middle to BUF 7 for 16 yards (93-A.Hargrove). [WPA +15.1% · EPA +2.79]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 0:17) — (:17) (Shotgun) 7-J.Losman pass to 11-R.Parrish pushed ob at JAX 24 for 30 yards (31-S.Starks). Caught along sideline at JAX 24. Play Challenged by Review Assistant and Upheld. [WPA +14.6% · EPA +1.57]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 0:34) — (:34) 9-D.Garrard pass short right to 18-M.Jones for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 3 yds. into end zone, along right sideline. [WPA +10.6% · EPA +1.82]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q3 19:11) — (4:11) 2-C.Hanson punts 52 yards to BUF 18, Center-88-J.Zelenka. 11-R.Parrish for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Key blocks: D.Whitner, K.Thomas. PENALTY on BUF, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced betw [WPA -15.5% · EPA -5.54]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q1 56:19) — (11:19) 10-J.Scobee 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-2-C.Hanson. [WPA -9.6% · EPA -3.93]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 45:00) — (15:00) 7-J.Losman pass incomplete deep left to 83-L.Evans. PENALTY on JAX-23-D.Webb, Defensive Pass Interference, 43 yards, enforced at BUF 48 - No Play. [WPA +6.7% · EPA +3.52]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 36:43) — (6:43) 21-W.McGahee right guard for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. W.McGahee switched direction, ran left after bouncing into defense at line of scrimmage. [WPA +3.3% · EPA +3.08]

Quarterback report card

D.Garrard led all passers in efficiency for Jacksonville Jaguars, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• D.Garrard (Jacksonville Jaguars) · 31 dropbacks · 51.6% completion · +12.9% CPOE · +0.02 EPA/play · +0.73 total EPA
• J.Losman (Buffalo Bills) · 31 dropbacks · 67.7% completion · +8.1% CPOE · +0.30 EPA/play · +9.30 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Jacksonville Jaguars +0.03, Buffalo Bills +0.06) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Buffalo Bills: 13 drives, +4.36 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• Jacksonville Jaguars: 11 drives, +2.81 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Buffalo Bills leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• J. Losman (Buffalo Bills) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• D. Garrard (JAX) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• J. Losman (BUF) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q1 48:29 · JAX 4 · Score 0-6
   (3:29) 21-W.McGahee left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Key block: T.Pennington.
2. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q1 48:23 · JAX 2 · Score 0-7
   9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-54-M.Schneck, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
3. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q2 43:03 · JAX 3 · Score 0-10
   (13:03) 9-R.Lindell 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Schneck, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q2 40:34 · BUF 14 · Score 6-10
   (10:34) 32-M.Jones-Drew right guard for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q2 40:25 · BUF 2 · Score 7-10
   10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-2-C.Hanson. Partially blocked at line by J.Greer before going through uprights.
6. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 36:43 · JAX 30 · Score 7-16
   (6:43) 21-W.McGahee right guard for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. W.McGahee switched direction, ran left after bouncing into defense at line of scrimmage.
7. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 36:32 · JAX 2 · Score 7-17
   9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-54-M.Schneck, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
8. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q2 31:17 · BUF 1 · Score 13-17
   (1:17) 9-D.Garrard pass short left to 89-M.Lewis for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 8 yds. into end zone
9. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q2 31:11 · BUF 2 · Score 14-17
   10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-2-C.Hanson.
10. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q3 19:11 · BUF 70 · Score 14-23
    (4:11) 2-C.Hanson punts 52 yards to BUF 18, Center-88-J.Zelenka. 11-R.Parrish for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Key blocks: D.Whitner, K.Thomas. PENALTY on BUF, Unsports
11. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q3 18:46 · JAX 2 · Score 14-24
    9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-54-M.Schneck, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
12. Jacksonville Jaguars FG (+3) — Q4 15:00 · BUF 9 · Score 17-24
    (15:00) 10-J.Scobee 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-2-C.Hanson.
13. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q4 0:34 · BUF 3 · Score 23-24
    (:34) 9-D.Garrard pass short right to 18-M.Jones for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 3 yds. into end zone, along right sideline.
14. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q4 0:28 · BUF 2 · Score 24-24
    10-J.Scobee extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-2-C.Hanson.
15. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q4 0:03 · JAX 24 · Score 24-27
    (:03) 9-R.Lindell 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Schneck, Holder-8-B.Moorman.