Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots: 2010 Week 11 Recap

Game story

In Week 11 of the 2010 NFL season on 2010-11-21, the New England Patriots took care of business against the Indianapolis Colts, pulling away with a 31–28 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 28 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

P. Manning (Indianapolis Colts) paced the passing game, with +18.46 total EPA, and +11.7% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, P. Manning (Indianapolis Colts) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +18.46 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-43.3% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Indianapolis Colts changed the game: (:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep right intended for 85-P.Garcon INTERCEPTED by 36-J.Sanders at NE 6. 36-J.Sanders to NE 6 for no gain (85-P.Garcon).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 P. Manning · Indianapolis Colts · Passing · +18.46 total EPA · 52 snaps · +0.36 EPA/play
2. 2 T. Brady · New England Patriots · Passing · +11.87 total EPA · 27 snaps · +0.44 EPA/play
3. 3 R. Wayne · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +8.34 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.83 EPA/play
4. 4 A. Collie · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +5.74 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.96 EPA/play
5. 5 W. Welker · New England Patriots · Receiving · +4.91 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.70 EPA/play
6. 6 D. Woodhead · New England Patriots · Rushing · +4.26 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.61 EPA/play
7. 7 A. Hernandez · New England Patriots · Receiving · +3.08 total EPA · 1 snaps · +3.08 EPA/play
8. 8 D. Woodhead · New England Patriots · Receiving · +3.05 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.76 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• New England Patriots — W. Welker (T. Brady pass) (Q1 53:07)
• New England Patriots — A. Hernandez (T. Brady pass) (Q2 43:20)
• Indianapolis Colts — G. Robinson (P. Manning pass) (Q2 37:57)
• New England Patriots — B. Green-Ellis (Q2 33:38)
• Indianapolis Colts — R. Wayne (P. Manning pass) (Q2 30:08)
• New England Patriots — D. Woodhead (Q3 16:20)
• Indianapolis Colts — B. White (P. Manning pass) (Q4 8:00)
• Indianapolis Colts — B. White (P. Manning pass) (Q4 4:51)

Field goals

• New England Patriots — S. Graham (Q4 10:27)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: New England Patriots won the period 7–0. New England Patriots found the end zone from the IND 22 (Q1 53:07) — (8:07) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 83-W.Welker for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q1 53:00) — 5-S.Graham extra point is GOOD, Center-48-M.Katula, Holder-14-Z.Mesko..

The second quarter: The quarter finished even at 14–14. New England Patriots found the end zone from the IND 8 (Q2 43:20); New England Patriots added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q2 43:15) — 5-S.Graham extra point is GOOD, Center-48-M.Katula, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the NE 1 (Q2 37:57) — (7:57) (No Huddle) 68-E.Foster reported in as eligible. 18-P.Manning pass short right to 47-G.Robinson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q2 37:53) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the IND 5 (Q2 33:38) — (3:38) 42-B.Green-Ellis left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q2 33:34) — 5-S.Graham extra point is GOOD, Center-48-M.Katula, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the NE 11 (Q2 30:08) — (:08) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short left to 87-R.Wayne for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q2 30:04) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee..

The third quarter: New England Patriots won the period 7–0. New England Patriots found the end zone from the IND 36 (Q3 16:20) — (1:20) 39-D.Woodhead right guard for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q3 16:11) — 5-S.Graham extra point is GOOD, Center-48-M.Katula, Holder-14-Z.Mesko..

The fourth quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 14–3. New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the IND 7 (Q4 10:27) — (10:27) 5-S.Graham 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Katula, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the NE 5 (Q4 8:00) — (8:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short middle to 15-B.White for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q4 7:57) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the NE 18 (Q4 4:51) — (4:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep middle to 15-B.White for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q4 4:46) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 0:37) — (:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep right intended for 85-P.Garcon INTERCEPTED by 36-J.Sanders at NE 6. 36-J.Sanders to NE 6 for no gain (85-P.Garcon). [WPA -43.3% · EPA -3.43]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q1 55:15) — (10:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep left intended for 15-B.White INTERCEPTED by 31-B.Meriweather at NE 29. 31-B.Meriweather to IND 32 for 39 yards (15-B.White). [WPA -14.2% · EPA -5.21]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 0:57) — (:57) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short middle to 87-R.Wayne to NE 24 for 15 yards (31-B.Meriweather). [WPA +13.0% · EPA +1.48]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 5:08) — (5:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep right to 85-P.Garcon to NE 33 for 17 yards (25-P.Chung, 32-D.McCourty). PENALTY on NE-95-T.Banta-Cain, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at N [WPA +9.4% · EPA +3.27]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q2 30:08) — (:08) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short left to 87-R.Wayne for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +7.3% · EPA +4.03]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Indianapolis Colts (Q1 55:15) — (10:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep left intended for 15-B.White INTERCEPTED by 31-B.Meriweather at NE 29. 31-B.Meriweather to IND 32 for 39 yards (15-B.White). [WPA -14.2% · EPA -5.21]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q2 30:08) — (:08) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short left to 87-R.Wayne for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +7.3% · EPA +4.03]
• New England Patriots (Q3 16:20) — (1:20) 39-D.Woodhead right guard for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +5.9% · EPA +3.53]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 0:37) — (:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep right intended for 85-P.Garcon INTERCEPTED by 36-J.Sanders at NE 6. 36-J.Sanders to NE 6 for no gain (85-P.Garcon). [WPA -43.3% · EPA -3.43]

Quarterback report card

P.Manning led all passers in efficiency for Indianapolis Colts, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• P.Manning (Indianapolis Colts) · 52 dropbacks · 73.1% completion · +11.7% CPOE · +0.36 EPA/play · +18.46 total EPA
• T.Brady (New England Patriots) · 27 dropbacks · 70.4% completion · +12.6% CPOE · +0.44 EPA/play · +11.87 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Indianapolis Colts +0.21, New England Patriots +0.26) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Indianapolis Colts: 9 drives, +18.27 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 10 drives, +19.59 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New England Patriots leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• P. Manning (Indianapolis Colts) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• P. Manning (IND) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• T. Brady (NE) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q1 53:07 · IND 22 · Score 0-6
   (8:07) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 83-W.Welker for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q1 53:00 · IND 2 · Score 0-7
   5-S.Graham extra point is GOOD, Center-48-M.Katula, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
3. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 43:20 · IND 8 · Score 0-13
   (13:20) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 85-A.Hernandez for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 244th career TD pass, ties John Hadl for 15th place all-time.
4. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 43:15 · IND 2 · Score 0-14
   5-S.Graham extra point is GOOD, Center-48-M.Katula, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
5. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q2 37:57 · NE 1 · Score 6-14
   (7:57) (No Huddle) 68-E.Foster reported in as eligible. 18-P.Manning pass short right to 47-G.Robinson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q2 37:53 · NE 2 · Score 7-14
   4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
7. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 33:38 · IND 5 · Score 7-20
   (3:38) 42-B.Green-Ellis left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 33:34 · IND 2 · Score 7-21
   5-S.Graham extra point is GOOD, Center-48-M.Katula, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
9. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q2 30:08 · NE 11 · Score 13-21
   (:08) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short left to 87-R.Wayne for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q2 30:04 · NE 2 · Score 14-21
    4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
11. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q3 16:20 · IND 36 · Score 14-27
    (1:20) 39-D.Woodhead right guard for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q3 16:11 · IND 2 · Score 14-28
    5-S.Graham extra point is GOOD, Center-48-M.Katula, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
13. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q4 10:27 · IND 7 · Score 14-31
    (10:27) 5-S.Graham 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Katula, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
14. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q4 8:00 · NE 5 · Score 20-31
    (8:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short middle to 15-B.White for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q4 7:57 · NE 2 · Score 21-31
    4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
16. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q4 4:51 · NE 18 · Score 27-31
    (4:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep middle to 15-B.White for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
17. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q4 4:46 · NE 2 · Score 28-31
    4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee.