Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots: 2006 Week 9 Recap

Game story

In Week 9 of the 2006 NFL season on 2006-11-05, the Indianapolis Colts took care of business against the New England Patriots, pulling away with a 27–20 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 24 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

P. Manning (Indianapolis Colts) paced the passing game, with +16.47 total EPA, and +4.6% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, M. Harrison (Indianapolis Colts) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +17.78 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+16.6% win probability) landed in the opening quarter when Indianapolis Colts changed the game: (9:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep left to 88-M.Harrison to NE 29 for 44 yards (37-R.Harrison) [59-R.Colvin]. NE-37-R.Harrison was injured during the play.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 M. Harrison · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +17.78 total EPA · 8 snaps · +2.22 EPA/play
2. 2 P. Manning · Indianapolis Colts · Passing · +16.47 total EPA · 42 snaps · +0.39 EPA/play
3. 3 R. Wayne · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +7.22 total EPA · 6 snaps · +1.20 EPA/play
4. 4 D. Clark · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +5.08 total EPA · 2 snaps · +2.54 EPA/play
5. 5 B. Utecht · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +4.71 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.18 EPA/play
6. 6 B. Watson · New England Patriots · Receiving · +4.68 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.17 EPA/play
7. 7 D. Gabriel · New England Patriots · Receiving · +4.57 total EPA · 2 snaps · +2.28 EPA/play
8. 8 T. Brady · New England Patriots · Rushing · +2.15 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.08 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Indianapolis Colts — M. Harrison (P. Manning pass) (Q1 49:33)
• New England Patriots — C. Dillon (Q2 44:28)
• Indianapolis Colts — J. Addai (Q2 39:59)
• New England Patriots — C. Dillon (Q2 34:19)
• Indianapolis Colts — M. Harrison (P. Manning pass) (Q3 22:00)

Field goals

• Indianapolis Colts — A. Vinatieri (Q2 31:50)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q3 20:27)
• Indianapolis Colts — A. Vinatieri (Q4 10:21)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q4 6:03)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 7–0. Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the NE 5 (Q1 49:33); Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q1 49:30) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith..

The second quarter: New England Patriots won the period 14–10. New England Patriots found the end zone from the IND 1 (Q2 44:28) — (14:28) NE-50 Vrabel eligible. 28-C.Dillon right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q2 44:25) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-8-J.Miller.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the NE 2 (Q2 39:59) — (9:59) (No Huddle) 29-J.Addai right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q2 39:56) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the IND 4 (Q2 34:19) — (4:19) 28-C.Dillon left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q2 34:14) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-8-J.Miller.; Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the NE 5 (Q2 31:50) — (1:50) 4-A.Vinatieri 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith..

The third quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 7–3. Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the NE 4 (Q3 22:00); Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q3 21:56) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the IND 31 (Q3 20:27) — (5:27) 3-S.Gostkowski 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-8-J.Miller..

The fourth quarter: The quarter finished even at 3–3. Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the NE 13 (Q4 10:21) — (10:21) 4-A.Vinatieri 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the IND 8 (Q4 6:03) — (6:03) 3-S.Gostkowski 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-8-J.Miller..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Indianapolis Colts (Q1 54:05) — (9:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep left to 88-M.Harrison to NE 29 for 44 yards (37-R.Harrison) [59-R.Colvin]. NE-37-R.Harrison was injured during the play. [WPA +16.6% · EPA +4.75]
• New England Patriots (Q1 54:30) — (9:30) 12-T.Brady pass deep left intended for 85-D.Gabriel INTERCEPTED by 41-A.Bethea at IND -6. 41-A.Bethea to IND 32 for 38 yards (72-M.Light). [WPA -13.9% · EPA -4.75]
• New England Patriots (Q4 1:23) — (1:23) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle intended for 33-K.Faulk INTERCEPTED by 59-C.June at IND 32. 59-C.June to IND 35 for 3 yards (33-K.Faulk). [WPA -13.8% · EPA -2.37]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q2 34:14) — 3-S.Gostkowski kicks 69 yards from NE 30 to IND 1. 10-T.Wilkins to NE 29 for 70 yards (99-M.Wright). [WPA +13.7% · EPA +3.21]
• New England Patriots (Q3 27:21) — (12:21) 28-C.Dillon up the middle to NE 31 for 4 yards (79-R.Brock, 54-F.Keiaho). FUMBLES (79-R.Brock), RECOVERED by IND-79-R.Brock at NE 31. 79-R.Brock for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play Challenged by NE [WPA -11.3% · EPA -5.07]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 13:31) — (13:31) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep right intended for 44-D.Clark INTERCEPTED by 30-C.Scott at NE 14. 30-C.Scott to NE 46 for 32 yards (44-D.Clark). [WPA -9.9% · EPA -5.08]
• New England Patriots (Q3 27:21) — (12:21) 28-C.Dillon up the middle to NE 31 for 4 yards (79-R.Brock, 54-F.Keiaho). FUMBLES (79-R.Brock), RECOVERED by IND-79-R.Brock at NE 31. 79-R.Brock for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Play Challenged by NE [WPA -11.3% · EPA -5.07]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q1 54:05) — (9:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep left to 88-M.Harrison to NE 29 for 44 yards (37-R.Harrison) [59-R.Colvin]. NE-37-R.Harrison was injured during the play. [WPA +16.6% · EPA +4.75]
• New England Patriots (Q1 54:30) — (9:30) 12-T.Brady pass deep left intended for 85-D.Gabriel INTERCEPTED by 41-A.Bethea at IND -6. 41-A.Bethea to IND 32 for 38 yards (72-M.Light). [WPA -13.9% · EPA -4.75]

Quarterback report card

P.Manning led all passers in efficiency for Indianapolis Colts, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• P.Manning (Indianapolis Colts) · 42 dropbacks · 47.6% completion · +4.6% CPOE · +0.39 EPA/play · +16.47 total EPA
• T.Brady (New England Patriots) · 39 dropbacks · 51.3% completion · -4.0% CPOE · -0.17 EPA/play · -6.74 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Indianapolis Colts generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.11 vs -0.01), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Indianapolis Colts: 12 drives, +9.09 total EPA, 5 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 11 drives, -1.12 total EPA, 4 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Indianapolis Colts leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• M. Harrison (Indianapolis Colts) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• P. Manning (IND) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• T. Brady (NE) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q1 49:33 · NE 5 · Score 6-0
   (4:33) (No Huddle) 18-P.Manning pass short middle to 88-M.Harrison for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 114th career TD for Harrison, new Colts career record (Lenny Moore)
2. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q1 49:30 · NE 2 · Score 7-0
   4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
3. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 44:28 · IND 1 · Score 7-6
   (14:28) NE-50 Vrabel eligible. 28-C.Dillon right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
4. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 44:25 · IND 2 · Score 7-7
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-8-J.Miller.
5. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q2 39:59 · NE 2 · Score 13-7
   (9:59) (No Huddle) 29-J.Addai right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q2 39:56 · NE 2 · Score 14-7
   4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
7. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 34:19 · IND 4 · Score 14-13
   (4:19) 28-C.Dillon left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 34:14 · IND 2 · Score 14-14
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-8-J.Miller.
9. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q2 31:50 · NE 5 · Score 17-14
   (1:50) 4-A.Vinatieri 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
10. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q3 22:00 · NE 4 · Score 23-14
    (7:00) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 88-M.Harrison for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on IND-88-M.Harrison, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between
11. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q3 21:56 · NE 2 · Score 24-14
    4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
12. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q3 20:27 · IND 31 · Score 24-17
    (5:27) 3-S.Gostkowski 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-8-J.Miller.
13. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q4 10:21 · NE 13 · Score 27-17
    (10:21) 4-A.Vinatieri 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
14. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q4 6:03 · IND 8 · Score 27-20
    (6:03) 3-S.Gostkowski 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-8-J.Miller.