Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots: 2004 Week 1 Recap

Game story

In Week 1 of the 2004 NFL season on 2004-09-09, the New England Patriots took care of business against the Indianapolis Colts, pulling away with a 27–24 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 27 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

T. Brady (New England Patriots) paced the passing game, with +17.75 total EPA.

On the individual side, T. Brady (New England Patriots) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +17.75 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-40.5% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Indianapolis Colts changed the game: (3:51) 32-E.James left guard to NE 1 for no gain (26-E.Wilson). FUMBLES (26-E.Wilson), RECOVERED by NE-75-V.Wilfork at NE 1. 75-V.Wilfork to NE 1 for no gain (44-D.Clark).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 T. Brady · New England Patriots · Passing · +17.75 total EPA · 40 snaps · +0.44 EPA/play
2. 2 P. Manning · Indianapolis Colts · Passing · +14.10 total EPA · 33 snaps · +0.43 EPA/play
3. 3 B. Stokley · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +9.59 total EPA · 4 snaps · +2.40 EPA/play
4. 4 D. Branch · New England Patriots · Receiving · +9.38 total EPA · 7 snaps · +1.34 EPA/play
5. 5 D. Patten · New England Patriots · Receiving · +8.80 total EPA · 4 snaps · +2.20 EPA/play
6. 6 M. Harrison · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +6.50 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.93 EPA/play
7. 7 D. Givens · New England Patriots · Receiving · +4.89 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.22 EPA/play
8. 8 D. Clark · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +3.92 total EPA · 1 snaps · +3.92 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Indianapolis Colts — D. Rhodes (Q2 38:06)
• New England Patriots — D. Branch (T. Brady pass) (Q2 33:07)
• Indianapolis Colts — M. Harrison (P. Manning pass) (Q2 30:45)
• New England Patriots — D. Patten (T. Brady pass) (Q3 25:53)
• New England Patriots — D. Graham (T. Brady pass) (Q3 16:27)
• Indianapolis Colts — B. Stokley (P. Manning pass) (Q4 11:09)

Field goals

• New England Patriots — A. Vinatieri (Q1 55:12)
• Indianapolis Colts — M. Vanderjagt (Q2 43:44)
• New England Patriots — A. Vinatieri (Q2 30:02)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: New England Patriots won the period 3–0. New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the IND 15 (Q1 55:12) — (10:12) 4-A.Vinatieri 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-8-Jo.Miller..

The second quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 17–10. Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the NE 14 (Q2 43:44) — (13:44) 13-M.Vanderjagt 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the NE 3 (Q2 38:06) — (8:06) (No Huddle) 33-D.Rhodes left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q2 38:02) — 13-M.Vanderjagt extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the IND 16 (Q2 33:07) — (3:07) 12-T.Brady pass to 83-D.Branch for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q2 33:04) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-8-Jo.Miller.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the NE 3 (Q2 30:45) — (:45) 18-P.Manning pass to 88-M.Harrison for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q2 30:42) — 13-M.Vanderjagt extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the IND 25 (Q2 30:02) — (:02) 4-A.Vinatieri 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-8-Jo.Miller..

The third quarter: New England Patriots won the period 14–0. New England Patriots found the end zone from the IND 25 (Q3 25:53) — (10:53) 12-T.Brady pass to 86-D.Patten for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q3 25:48) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-8-Jo.Miller.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the IND 8 (Q3 16:27) — (1:27) 12-T.Brady pass to 82-D.Graham for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q3 16:23) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-8-Jo.Miller..

The fourth quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 7–0. Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the NE 7 (Q4 11:09) — (11:09) 18-P.Manning pass to 83-B.Stokley for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q4 11:05) — 13-M.Vanderjagt extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 3:51) — (3:51) 32-E.James left guard to NE 1 for no gain (26-E.Wilson). FUMBLES (26-E.Wilson), RECOVERED by NE-75-V.Wilfork at NE 1. 75-V.Wilfork to NE 1 for no gain (44-D.Clark). [WPA -40.5% · EPA -5.63]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 1:43) — (1:43) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass to 83-B.Stokley to NE 19 for 45 yards (26-E.Wilson). [WPA +28.8% · EPA +2.41]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 0:49) — (:49) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning sacked at NE 29 for -12 yards (55-W.McGinest). [WPA -26.3% · EPA -1.02]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 5:30) — (5:30) 17-H.Smith punts 30 yards to NE 26, Center-48-J.Snow. 83-D.Branch MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by IND-57-J.Nelson at NE 33. 57-J.Nelson to NE 33 for no gain (53-L.Izzo). [WPA +22.6% · EPA +3.58]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q3 20:14) — (5:14) 32-E.James up the middle to NE 18 for 4 yards (94-T.Warren). FUMBLES (94-T.Warren), RECOVERED by NE-26-E.Wilson at NE 18. 26-E.Wilson to NE 18 for no gain (56-T.Peko). Play Challenged by IND an [WPA -21.9% · EPA -4.85]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 3:51) — (3:51) 32-E.James left guard to NE 1 for no gain (26-E.Wilson). FUMBLES (26-E.Wilson), RECOVERED by NE-75-V.Wilfork at NE 1. 75-V.Wilfork to NE 1 for no gain (44-D.Clark). [WPA -40.5% · EPA -5.63]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q3 20:14) — (5:14) 32-E.James up the middle to NE 18 for 4 yards (94-T.Warren). FUMBLES (94-T.Warren), RECOVERED by NE-26-E.Wilson at NE 18. 26-E.Wilson to NE 18 for no gain (56-T.Peko). Play Challenged by IND an [WPA -21.9% · EPA -4.85]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q1 51:37) — (6:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass intended for 44-D.Clark INTERCEPTED by 54-T.Bruschi at NE 1. 54-T.Bruschi to NE 6 for 5 yards (87-R.Wayne, 63-J.Saturday). [WPA -17.1% · EPA -4.83]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q2 32:58) — (2:58) 18-P.Manning pass to 44-D.Clark to NE 18 for 64 yards (24-T.Law, 37-R.Harrison). [WPA +14.8% · EPA +3.92]

Quarterback report card

T.Brady led all passers in efficiency for New England Patriots, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• T.Brady (New England Patriots) · 40 dropbacks · 65.0% completion · +0.44 EPA/play · +17.75 total EPA
• P.Manning (Indianapolis Colts) · 33 dropbacks · 48.5% completion · +0.43 EPA/play · +14.10 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Indianapolis Colts +0.19, New England Patriots +0.24) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Indianapolis Colts: 10 drives, +17.64 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 10 drives, +17.78 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New England Patriots leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• T. Brady (New England Patriots) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q1 55:12 · IND 15 · Score 0-3
   (10:12) 4-A.Vinatieri 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-8-Jo.Miller.
2. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q2 43:44 · NE 14 · Score 3-3
   (13:44) 13-M.Vanderjagt 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
3. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q2 38:06 · NE 3 · Score 9-3
   (8:06) (No Huddle) 33-D.Rhodes left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q2 38:02 · NE 2 · Score 10-3
   13-M.Vanderjagt extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
5. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 33:07 · IND 16 · Score 10-9
   (3:07) 12-T.Brady pass to 83-D.Branch for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 33:04 · IND 2 · Score 10-10
   4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-8-Jo.Miller.
7. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q2 30:45 · NE 3 · Score 16-10
   (:45) 18-P.Manning pass to 88-M.Harrison for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q2 30:42 · NE 2 · Score 17-10
   13-M.Vanderjagt extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
9. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q2 30:02 · IND 25 · Score 17-13
   (:02) 4-A.Vinatieri 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-8-Jo.Miller.
10. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q3 25:53 · IND 25 · Score 17-19
    (10:53) 12-T.Brady pass to 86-D.Patten for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q3 25:48 · IND 2 · Score 17-20
    4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-8-Jo.Miller.
12. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q3 16:27 · IND 8 · Score 17-26
    (1:27) 12-T.Brady pass to 82-D.Graham for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q3 16:23 · IND 2 · Score 17-27
    4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-8-Jo.Miller.
14. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q4 11:09 · NE 7 · Score 23-27
    (11:09) 18-P.Manning pass to 83-B.Stokley for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q4 11:05 · NE 2 · Score 24-27
    13-M.Vanderjagt extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.