Indianapolis Colts vs. Las Vegas Raiders: 2010 Week 16 Recap

Game story

In Week 16 of the 2010 NFL season on 2010-12-26, the Indianapolis Colts took care of business against the Las Vegas Raiders, pulling away with a 31–26 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q1 with 28 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

J. Campbell (Las Vegas Raiders) paced the passing game, with -10.91 total EPA, and +3.6% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, P. Manning (Indianapolis Colts) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +7.18 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+21.5% win probability) landed in the opening quarter when Las Vegas Raiders changed the game: 1-P.McAfee kicks 69 yards from IND 30 to LV 1. 12-J.Ford for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 P. Manning · Indianapolis Colts · Passing · +7.18 total EPA · 34 snaps · +0.21 EPA/play
2. 2 L. Murphy · Las Vegas Raiders · Receiving · +3.37 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.69 EPA/play
3. 3 J. Tamme · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +3.15 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.35 EPA/play
4. 4 R. Wayne · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +2.26 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.38 EPA/play
5. 5 D. Rhodes · Indianapolis Colts · Rushing · +1.63 total EPA · 17 snaps · +0.10 EPA/play
6. 6 D. Heyward-Bey · Las Vegas Raiders · Receiving · +1.56 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.26 EPA/play
7. 7 C. Schilens · Las Vegas Raiders · Receiving · +1.29 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.65 EPA/play
8. 8 J. Addai · Indianapolis Colts · Rushing · +0.51 total EPA · 12 snaps · +0.04 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Las Vegas Raiders — J. Ford (Q1 60:00)
• Indianapolis Colts — J. Addai (Q1 51:04)
• Indianapolis Colts — J. Tamme (P. Manning pass) (Q2 30:41)
• Indianapolis Colts — B. White (P. Manning pass) (Q3 18:01)
• Indianapolis Colts — P. Garcon (P. Manning pass) (Q4 7:42)
• Las Vegas Raiders — Z. Miller (J. Campbell pass) (Q4 1:54)

Field goals

• Indianapolis Colts — A. Vinatieri (Q2 44:54)
• Las Vegas Raiders — S. Janikowski (Q2 39:36)
• Las Vegas Raiders — S. Janikowski (Q2 32:00)
• Las Vegas Raiders — S. Janikowski (Q3 22:54)
• Las Vegas Raiders — S. Janikowski (Q4 13:04)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Las Vegas Raiders won the period 21–7. Las Vegas Raiders found the end zone from the IND 30 (Q1 60:00) — 1-P.McAfee kicks 69 yards from IND 30 to LV 1. 12-J.Ford for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Las Vegas Raiders added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q1 59:48) — 11-S.Janikowski extra point is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-9-S.Lechler.; Las Vegas Raiders found the end zone from the LV 80 (Q1 59:48) — (14:48) 18-P.Manning pass incomplete deep middle to 84-J.Tamme.; Las Vegas Raiders found the end zone from the IND 69 (Q1 58:17) — (13:17) 20-D.McFadden up the middle to LV 35 for 4 yards (53-K.Conner).; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the LV 6 (Q1 51:04) — (6:04) (No Huddle) 29-J.Addai right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the LV 2 (Q1 51:00) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee..

The second quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 10–6. Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the LV 12 (Q2 44:54) — (14:54) 4-A.Vinatieri 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee.; Las Vegas Raiders connected on a field goal from the IND 41 (Q2 39:36) — (9:36) 11-S.Janikowski 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-9-S.Lechler.; Las Vegas Raiders connected on a field goal from the IND 20 (Q2 32:00) — (2:00) 11-S.Janikowski 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-9-S.Lechler.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the LV 18 (Q2 30:41) — (:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep middle to 84-J.Tamme for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the LV 2 (Q2 30:36) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee..

The third quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 7–3. Las Vegas Raiders connected on a field goal from the IND 33 (Q3 22:54) — (7:54) 11-S.Janikowski 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-9-S.Lechler.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the LV 4 (Q3 18:01) — (3:01) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 15-B.White for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the LV 2 (Q3 17:55) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee..

The fourth quarter: Las Vegas Raiders won the period 10–7. Las Vegas Raiders connected on a field goal from the IND 27 (Q4 13:04) — (13:04) 11-S.Janikowski 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-9-S.Lechler.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the LV 7 (Q4 7:42) — (7:42) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 85-P.Garcon for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the LV 2 (Q4 7:38) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee.; Las Vegas Raiders found the end zone from the IND 6 (Q4 1:54) — (1:54) (Shotgun) 8-J.Campbell pass short middle to 80-Z.Miller for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Las Vegas Raiders added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q4 1:51) — 11-S.Janikowski extra point is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-9-S.Lechler..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Las Vegas Raiders (Q1 60:00) — 1-P.McAfee kicks 69 yards from IND 30 to LV 1. 12-J.Ford for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +21.5% · EPA +6.19]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q2 30:45) — (:45) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass incomplete deep right to 85-P.Garcon. PENALTY on LV-37-C.Johnson, Defensive Pass Interference, 25 yards, enforced at LV 43 - No Play. [WPA +11.0% · EPA +2.72]
• Las Vegas Raiders (Q2 39:36) — (9:36) 11-S.Janikowski 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-9-S.Lechler. [WPA +10.3% · EPA +3.38]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q2 31:13) — (1:13) (Shotgun) 29-J.Addai left end to IND 49 for 3 yards (33-T.Branch). PENALTY on LV-99-L.Houston, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at IND 49. [WPA +9.8% · EPA +1.31]
• Las Vegas Raiders (Q4 13:31) — (13:31) (Shotgun) 8-J.Campbell sacked at IND 27 for -8 yards (sack split by 58-G.Brackett and 98-R.Mathis). [WPA -9.7% · EPA -1.73]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Las Vegas Raiders (Q1 60:00) — 1-P.McAfee kicks 69 yards from IND 30 to LV 1. 12-J.Ford for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +21.5% · EPA +6.19]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 0:21) — (:21) 18-P.Manning kneels to LV 6 for -1 yards. [EPA -3.95]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q3 29:24) — (14:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep middle intended for 84-J.Tamme INTERCEPTED by 24-M.Huff at LV 43. 24-M.Huff to LV 43 for no gain (84-J.Tamme). [WPA -6.7% · EPA -3.64]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 1:39) — (1:39) 18-P.Manning left end to LV 4 for 27 yards (77-M.Shaughnessy). [WPA +2.4% · EPA +3.57]

Quarterback report card

J.Campbell led all passers in efficiency for Las Vegas Raiders, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• J.Campbell (Las Vegas Raiders) · 48 dropbacks · 60.4% completion · +3.6% CPOE · -0.23 EPA/play · -10.91 total EPA
• P.Manning (Indianapolis Colts) · 34 dropbacks · 47.1% completion · -7.4% CPOE · +0.21 EPA/play · +7.18 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Indianapolis Colts generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.09 vs +0.01), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Indianapolis Colts: 14 drives, +8.77 total EPA, 5 scoring drives
• Las Vegas Raiders: 14 drives, +1.13 total EPA, 6 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Indianapolis Colts leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• P. Manning (Indianapolis Colts) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• J. Campbell (LV) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• P. Manning (IND) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Las Vegas Raiders TD (+6) — Q1 60:00 · IND 30 · Score 0-6
   1-P.McAfee kicks 69 yards from IND 30 to LV 1. 12-J.Ford for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Las Vegas Raiders XP (+1) — Q1 59:48 · IND 2 · Score 0-7
   11-S.Janikowski extra point is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-9-S.Lechler.
3. Las Vegas Raiders TD (+7) — Q1 59:48 · LV 80 · Score 0-7
   (14:48) 18-P.Manning pass incomplete deep middle to 84-J.Tamme.
4. Las Vegas Raiders TD (+7) — Q1 58:17 · IND 69 · Score 0-7
   (13:17) 20-D.McFadden up the middle to LV 35 for 4 yards (53-K.Conner).
5. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q1 51:04 · LV 6 · Score 6-7
   (6:04) (No Huddle) 29-J.Addai right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q1 51:00 · LV 2 · Score 7-7
   4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
7. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q2 44:54 · LV 12 · Score 10-7
   (14:54) 4-A.Vinatieri 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
8. Las Vegas Raiders FG (+3) — Q2 39:36 · IND 41 · Score 10-10
   (9:36) 11-S.Janikowski 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-9-S.Lechler.
9. Las Vegas Raiders FG (+3) — Q2 32:00 · IND 20 · Score 10-13
   (2:00) 11-S.Janikowski 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-9-S.Lechler.
10. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q2 30:41 · LV 18 · Score 16-13
    (:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep middle to 84-J.Tamme for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q2 30:36 · LV 2 · Score 17-13
    4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
12. Las Vegas Raiders FG (+3) — Q3 22:54 · IND 33 · Score 17-16
    (7:54) 11-S.Janikowski 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-9-S.Lechler.
13. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q3 18:01 · LV 4 · Score 23-16
    (3:01) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 15-B.White for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q3 17:55 · LV 2 · Score 24-16
    4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
15. Las Vegas Raiders FG (+3) — Q4 13:04 · IND 27 · Score 24-19
    (13:04) 11-S.Janikowski 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-9-S.Lechler.
16. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q4 7:42 · LV 7 · Score 30-19
    (7:42) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 85-P.Garcon for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
17. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q4 7:38 · LV 2 · Score 31-19
    4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
18. Las Vegas Raiders TD (+6) — Q4 1:54 · IND 6 · Score 31-25
    (1:54) (Shotgun) 8-J.Campbell pass short middle to 80-Z.Miller for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
19. Las Vegas Raiders XP (+1) — Q4 1:51 · IND 2 · Score 31-26
    11-S.Janikowski extra point is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-9-S.Lechler.