Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs: 2013 Week 16 Recap

Game story

In Week 16 of the 2013 NFL season on 2013-12-22, the Indianapolis Colts took care of business against the Kansas City Chiefs, pulling away with a 23–7 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 13 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

A. Luck (Indianapolis Colts) paced the passing game, with +12.26 total EPA, and +9.0% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, A. Luck (Indianapolis Colts) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +12.26 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-16.8% win probability) landed in the second quarter when Kansas City Chiefs changed the game: (:06) 6-R.Succop 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 A. Luck · Indianapolis Colts · Passing · +12.26 total EPA · 43 snaps · +0.29 EPA/play
2. 2 G. Whalen · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +5.58 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.70 EPA/play
3. 3 T. Hilton · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +5.44 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.78 EPA/play
4. 4 J. Charles · Kansas City Chiefs · Rushing · +5.42 total EPA · 13 snaps · +0.42 EPA/play
5. 5 D. Brown · Indianapolis Colts · Rushing · +3.52 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.35 EPA/play
6. 6 D. Brown · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +2.59 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.86 EPA/play
7. 7 D. Rogers · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +1.82 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.30 EPA/play
8. 8 D. Avery · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +1.06 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.27 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Kansas City Chiefs — J. Charles (Q1 56:14)
• Indianapolis Colts — D. Brown (A. Luck pass) (Q2 39:35)
• Indianapolis Colts — D. Brown (Q3 28:08)

Field goals

• Indianapolis Colts — A. Vinatieri (Q2 41:45)
• Indianapolis Colts — A. Vinatieri (Q2 31:59)
• Indianapolis Colts — A. Vinatieri (Q3 17:51)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Kansas City Chiefs won the period 7–0. Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the IND 31 (Q1 56:14) — (11:14) 25-J.Charles right tackle for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q1 56:05) — 6-R.Succop extra point is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-2-D.Colquitt..

The second quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 13–0. Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the KC 28 (Q2 41:45) — (11:45) 4-A.Vinatieri 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the KC 33 (Q2 39:35) — (9:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 31-D.Brown for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the KC 2 (Q2 39:23) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.; Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the KC 27 (Q2 31:59) — (1:59) 4-A.Vinatieri 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee..

The third quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 10–0. Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the KC 51 (Q3 28:08); Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the KC 2 (Q3 27:55) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.; Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the KC 12 (Q3 17:51) — (2:51) 4-A.Vinatieri 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Kansas City Chiefs (Q2 30:06) — (:06) 6-R.Succop 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. [WPA -16.8% · EPA -2.11]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q2 39:44) — (9:44) (Shotgun) 34-K.Davis up the middle to KC 33 for 2 yards (98-R.Mathis). FUMBLES (98-R.Mathis), RECOVERED by IND-90-C.Redding at KC 33. 90-C.Redding to KC 33 for no gain (74-G.Schwartz). [WPA -12.7% · EPA -4.39]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q2 39:35) — (9:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 31-D.Brown for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +12.4% · EPA +3.93]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q2 36:19) — (6:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep left to 13-T.Hilton to KC 49 for 31 yards (29-E.Berry). [WPA +9.1% · EPA +2.92]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q3 28:08) — (13:08) (Shotgun) 31-D.Brown right guard for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Assistant challenged the runner was in bounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. [WPA +8.7% · EPA +4.86]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Indianapolis Colts (Q3 28:08) — (13:08) (Shotgun) 31-D.Brown right guard for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Assistant challenged the runner was in bounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. [WPA +8.7% · EPA +4.86]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q4 10:02) — (10:02) 11-A.Smith pass deep middle intended for 80-A.Fasano INTERCEPTED by 50-J.Freeman at IND -1. Touchback. [WPA -3.3% · EPA -4.79]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q4 3:32) — (3:32) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith sacked at IND 36 for -4 yards (50-J.Freeman). FUMBLES (50-J.Freeman) [50-J.Freeman], RECOVERED by IND-95-F.Moala at IND 35. 95-F.Moala to IND 40 for 5 yards (72-E.Fisher). [WPA -0.3% · EPA -4.46]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q2 39:44) — (9:44) (Shotgun) 34-K.Davis up the middle to KC 33 for 2 yards (98-R.Mathis). FUMBLES (98-R.Mathis), RECOVERED by IND-90-C.Redding at KC 33. 90-C.Redding to KC 33 for no gain (74-G.Schwartz). [WPA -12.7% · EPA -4.39]

Quarterback report card

A.Luck led all passers in efficiency for Indianapolis Colts, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• A.Luck (Indianapolis Colts) · 43 dropbacks · 60.5% completion · +9.0% CPOE · +0.29 EPA/play · +12.26 total EPA
• A.Smith (Kansas City Chiefs) · 39 dropbacks · 41.0% completion · -5.1% CPOE · -0.41 EPA/play · -15.96 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Indianapolis Colts generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.11 vs -0.15), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Indianapolis Colts: 12 drives, +9.72 total EPA, 5 scoring drives
• Kansas City Chiefs: 11 drives, -10.73 total EPA, 1 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Indianapolis Colts leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• A. Luck (Indianapolis Colts) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• A. Luck (IND) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• A. Smith (KC) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q1 56:14 · IND 31 · Score 0-6
   (11:14) 25-J.Charles right tackle for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Kansas City Chiefs XP (+1) — Q1 56:05 · IND 2 · Score 0-7
   6-R.Succop extra point is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
3. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q2 41:45 · KC 28 · Score 3-7
   (11:45) 4-A.Vinatieri 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
4. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q2 39:35 · KC 33 · Score 9-7
   (9:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 31-D.Brown for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q2 39:23 · KC 2 · Score 10-7
   4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
6. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q2 31:59 · KC 27 · Score 13-7
   (1:59) 4-A.Vinatieri 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
7. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q3 28:08 · KC 51 · Score 19-7
   (13:08) (Shotgun) 31-D.Brown right guard for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Assistant challenged the runner was in bounds ruling, and the play was Upheld.
8. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q3 27:55 · KC 2 · Score 20-7
   4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
9. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q3 17:51 · KC 12 · Score 23-7
   (2:51) 4-A.Vinatieri 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.