Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: 2024 Week 5 Recap

Game story

In Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season on 2024-10-06, the Jacksonville Jaguars took care of business against the Indianapolis Colts, pulling away with a 37–34 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 44 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

J. Flacco (Indianapolis Colts) paced the passing game, with +13.31 total EPA, and +8.5% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, J. Flacco (Indianapolis Colts) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +13.31 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+29.3% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Indianapolis Colts changed the game: (2:50) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep right to 14-A.Pierce for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 J. Flacco · Indianapolis Colts · Passing · +13.31 total EPA · 50 snaps · +0.27 EPA/play
2. 2 T. Lawrence · Jacksonville Jaguars · Passing · +11.89 total EPA · 35 snaps · +0.34 EPA/play
3. 3 A. Pierce · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +10.43 total EPA · 3 snaps · +3.48 EPA/play
4. 4 C. Kirk · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +6.38 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.60 EPA/play
5. 5 M. Alie-Cox · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +4.02 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.00 EPA/play
6. 6 T. Lawrence · Jacksonville Jaguars · Rushing · +2.59 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.30 EPA/play
7. 7 B. Strange · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +2.56 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.64 EPA/play
8. 8 A. Mitchell · Indianapolis Colts · Passing · +2.45 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.45 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Indianapolis Colts — M. Pittman (J. Flacco pass) (Q1 53:54)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — B. Thomas (T. Lawrence pass) (Q2 37:12)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — T. Bigsby (Q3 22:21)
• Indianapolis Colts — M. Alie-Cox (J. Flacco pass) (Q4 15:00)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — B. Strange (T. Lawrence pass) (Q4 10:05)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — T. Bigsby (Q4 5:21)
• Indianapolis Colts — T. Sermon (Q4 4:32)
• Indianapolis Colts — A. Pierce (J. Flacco pass) (Q4 2:50)

Field goals

• Jacksonville Jaguars — C. Little (Q2 38:59)
• Indianapolis Colts — M. Gay (Q2 31:47)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — C. Little (Q2 30:06)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — C. Little (Q2 30:04)
• Indianapolis Colts — M. Gay (Q4 6:04)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — C. Little (Q4 0:21)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — C. Little (Q4 0:17)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 7–0. Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the JAX 1 (Q1 53:54) — (8:54) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short left to 11-M.Pittman for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the JAX 15 (Q1 53:49) — 7-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez..

The second quarter: Jacksonville Jaguars won the period 16–3. Jacksonville Jaguars connected on a field goal from the IND 5 (Q2 38:59) — (8:59) 39-C.Little 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the IND 85 (Q2 37:12) — (7:12) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 7-B.Thomas for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the IND 15 (Q2 37:02) — 39-C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.; Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the JAX 12 (Q2 31:47) — (1:47) 7-M.Gay 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.; Jacksonville Jaguars connected on a field goal from the IND 12 (Q2 30:06) — (:06) 39-C.Little 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.; Jacksonville Jaguars connected on a field goal from the JAX 35 (Q2 30:04) — 39-C.Little kicks 65 yards from JAX 35 to end zone, Touchback to the IND 30..

The third quarter: Jacksonville Jaguars won the period 7–0. Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the IND 19 (Q3 22:21) — (7:21) 4-T.Bigsby up the middle to IND 1 for 18 yards (97-L.Latu). FUMBLES (97-L.Latu), and recovers at IND -3. TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the IND 15 (Q3 22:13) — 39-C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke..

The fourth quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 24–20. Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the JAX 18 (Q4 15:00) — (15:00) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep left to 81-M.Alie-Cox for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the JAX 15 (Q4 14:54) — 7-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the IND 4 (Q4 10:05) — (10:05) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 85-B.Strange for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the IND 15 (Q4 9:59) — 39-C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.; Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the JAX 19 (Q4 6:04) — (6:04) 7-M.Gay 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the IND 65 (Q4 5:21) — (5:21) 4-T.Bigsby up the middle for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the IND 15 (Q4 5:09) — 39-C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. Penalty on IND-93-A.Gotsis, Defensive Holding, declined.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the JAX 1 (Q4 4:32) — (4:32) (Shotgun) 27-T.Sermon up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the JAX 15 (Q4 4:27) — 7-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the JAX 65 (Q4 2:50) — (2:50) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep right to 14-A.Pierce for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the JAX 15 (Q4 2:40) — 7-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.; Jacksonville Jaguars connected on a field goal from the IND 31 (Q4 0:21) — (:21) 39-C.Little 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.; Jacksonville Jaguars connected on a field goal from the JAX 35 (Q4 0:17) — 39-C.Little kicks 65 yards from JAX 35 to end zone, Touchback to the IND 30..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 2:50) — (2:50) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep right to 14-A.Pierce for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +29.3% · EPA +5.44]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q2 37:12) — (7:12) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 7-B.Thomas for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +21.7% · EPA +6.62]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 0:21) — (:21) 39-C.Little 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. [WPA +19.5% · EPA +1.07]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q2 30:15) — (:15) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco sacked at IND 36 for -10 yards (44-T.Walker). FUMBLES (44-T.Walker), touched at IND 35, RECOVERED by JAX-41-J.Hines-Allen at IND 25. 41-J.Hines-Allen to IND 12 for 13 yards [WPA -17.0% · EPA -3.47]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 13:39) — (13:39) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep middle to 13-C.Kirk to IND 23 for 61 yards (20-N.Cross; 40-J.Jones). [WPA +12.6% · EPA +5.13]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q2 37:12) — (7:12) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 7-B.Thomas for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +21.7% · EPA +6.62]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 5:21) — (5:21) 4-T.Bigsby up the middle for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +7.3% · EPA +6.04]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 2:50) — (2:50) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep right to 14-A.Pierce for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +29.3% · EPA +5.44]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 13:39) — (13:39) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep middle to 13-C.Kirk to IND 23 for 61 yards (20-N.Cross; 40-J.Jones). [WPA +12.6% · EPA +5.13]

Quarterback report card

J.Flacco led all passers in efficiency for Indianapolis Colts, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• J.Flacco (Indianapolis Colts) · 50 dropbacks · 66.0% completion · +8.5% CPOE · +0.27 EPA/play · +13.31 total EPA
• T.Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars) · 35 dropbacks · 80.0% completion · +11.4% CPOE · +0.34 EPA/play · +11.89 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Jacksonville Jaguars held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.23 vs +0.17), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Indianapolis Colts: 13 drives, +15.95 total EPA, 6 scoring drives
• Jacksonville Jaguars: 12 drives, +17.86 total EPA, 7 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Jacksonville Jaguars leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• J. Flacco (Indianapolis Colts) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• J. Flacco (IND) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• T. Lawrence (JAX) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q1 53:54 · JAX 1 · Score 6-0
   (8:54) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short left to 11-M.Pittman for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q1 53:49 · JAX 15 · Score 7-0
   7-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars FG (+3) — Q2 38:59 · IND 5 · Score 7-3
   (8:59) 39-C.Little 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q2 37:12 · IND 85 · Score 7-9
   (7:12) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 7-B.Thomas for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q2 37:02 · IND 15 · Score 7-10
   39-C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
6. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q2 31:47 · JAX 12 · Score 10-10
   (1:47) 7-M.Gay 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars FG (+3) — Q2 30:06 · IND 12 · Score 10-13
   (:06) 39-C.Little 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
8. Jacksonville Jaguars FG (+3) — Q2 30:04 · JAX 35 · Score 10-13
   39-C.Little kicks 65 yards from JAX 35 to end zone, Touchback to the IND 30.
9. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q3 22:21 · IND 19 · Score 10-19
   (7:21) 4-T.Bigsby up the middle to IND 1 for 18 yards (97-L.Latu). FUMBLES (97-L.Latu), and recovers at IND -3. TOUCHDOWN.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q3 22:13 · IND 15 · Score 10-20
    39-C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
11. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q4 15:00 · JAX 18 · Score 16-20
    (15:00) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep left to 81-M.Alie-Cox for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q4 14:54 · JAX 15 · Score 17-20
    7-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
13. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q4 10:05 · IND 4 · Score 17-26
    (10:05) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 85-B.Strange for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q4 9:59 · IND 15 · Score 17-27
    39-C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
15. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q4 6:04 · JAX 19 · Score 20-27
    (6:04) 7-M.Gay 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q4 5:21 · IND 65 · Score 20-33
    (5:21) 4-T.Bigsby up the middle for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q4 5:09 · IND 15 · Score 20-34
    39-C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. Penalty on IND-93-A.Gotsis, Defensive Holding, declined.
18. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q4 4:32 · JAX 1 · Score 26-34
    (4:32) (Shotgun) 27-T.Sermon up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
19. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q4 4:27 · JAX 15 · Score 27-34
    7-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
20. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q4 2:50 · JAX 65 · Score 33-34
    (2:50) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep right to 14-A.Pierce for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
21. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q4 2:40 · JAX 15 · Score 34-34
    7-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
22. Jacksonville Jaguars FG (+3) — Q4 0:21 · IND 31 · Score 34-37
    (:21) 39-C.Little 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
23. Jacksonville Jaguars FG (+3) — Q4 0:17 · JAX 35 · Score 34-37
    39-C.Little kicks 65 yards from JAX 35 to end zone, Touchback to the IND 30.