Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: 2004 Week 4 Recap

Game story

In Week 4 of the 2004 NFL season on 2004-10-03, the Indianapolis Colts took care of business against the Jacksonville Jaguars, pulling away with a 24–17 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 18 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

B. Leftwich (Jacksonville Jaguars) paced the passing game, with +17.54 total EPA.

On the individual side, B. Leftwich (Jacksonville Jaguars) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +17.54 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+26.9% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Jacksonville Jaguars changed the game: (10:45) (Shotgun) 7-B.Leftwich pass to 82-J.Smith for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 B. Leftwich · Jacksonville Jaguars · Passing · +17.54 total EPA · 47 snaps · +0.37 EPA/play
2. 2 P. Manning · Indianapolis Colts · Passing · +12.20 total EPA · 30 snaps · +0.41 EPA/play
3. 3 B. Stokley · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +8.62 total EPA · 8 snaps · +1.08 EPA/play
4. 4 J. Smith · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +7.20 total EPA · 3 snaps · +2.40 EPA/play
5. 5 E. Wilford · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +4.14 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.69 EPA/play
6. 6 M. Pollard · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +3.92 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.31 EPA/play
7. 7 M. Harrison · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +3.81 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.95 EPA/play
8. 8 T. Edwards · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +3.76 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.94 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Indianapolis Colts — M. Harrison (P. Manning pass) (Q1 51:00)
• Indianapolis Colts — M. Pollard (P. Manning pass) (Q3 17:59)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — J. Smith (B. Leftwich pass) (Q4 10:45)
• Indianapolis Colts — E. James (Q4 3:42)

Field goals

• Indianapolis Colts — M. Vanderjagt (Q2 30:43)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — J. Scobee (Q2 30:05)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — J. Scobee (Q3 23:51)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — J. Scobee (Q4 12:07)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 7–0. Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the JAX 15 (Q1 51:00) — (6:00) 18-P.Manning pass to 88-M.Harrison for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the JAX 2 (Q1 50:55) — 13-M.Vanderjagt extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith..

The second quarter: The quarter finished even at 3–3. Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the JAX 28 (Q2 30:43) — (:43) 13-M.Vanderjagt 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.; Jacksonville Jaguars connected on a field goal from the IND 29 (Q2 30:05) — (:05) 10-J.Scobee 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-2-C.Hanson..

The third quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 7–3. Jacksonville Jaguars connected on a field goal from the IND 24 (Q3 23:51) — (8:51) 10-J.Scobee 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-2-C.Hanson.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the JAX 16 (Q3 17:59) — (2:59) 18-P.Manning pass to 81-M.Pollard for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the JAX 2 (Q3 17:54) — 13-M.Vanderjagt extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith..

The fourth quarter: Jacksonville Jaguars won the period 11–7. Jacksonville Jaguars connected on a field goal from the IND 4 (Q4 12:07) — (12:07) 10-J.Scobee 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-2-C.Hanson.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the IND 40 (Q4 10:45) — (10:45) (Shotgun) 7-B.Leftwich pass to 82-J.Smith for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars registered a safety from the IND 2 (Q4 10:37) — TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 7-B.Leftwich pass to 86-B.Jones is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the JAX 3 (Q4 3:42) — (3:42) 32-E.James up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the JAX 2 (Q4 3:33) — 13-M.Vanderjagt extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 10:45) — (10:45) (Shotgun) 7-B.Leftwich pass to 82-J.Smith for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +26.9% · EPA +5.78]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 11:57) — (11:57) 18-P.Manning pass incomplete to 44-D.Clark (52-D.Smith). Play Challenged by JAX and REVERSED. 18-P.Manning pass intended for 44-D.Clark INTERCEPTED by 52-D.Smith at IND 49. 52-D.Smith to IND 4 [WPA -11.8% · EPA -3.55]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 3:42) — (3:42) 32-E.James up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +11.3% · EPA +1.15]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q1 50:14) — (5:14) 28-F.Taylor right tackle to IND 42 for 1 yard (50-D.Thornton). FUMBLES (50-D.Thornton), RECOVERED by IND-59-C.June at IND 40. [WPA -11.1% · EPA -3.77]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 2:00) — (2:00) 28-F.Taylor up the middle to IND 45 for no gain (94-R.Morris). Play Challenged by Review Assistant and Upheld. [WPA -10.5% · EPA -2.02]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 10:45) — (10:45) (Shotgun) 7-B.Leftwich pass to 82-J.Smith for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +26.9% · EPA +5.78]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q1 50:14) — (5:14) 28-F.Taylor right tackle to IND 42 for 1 yard (50-D.Thornton). FUMBLES (50-D.Thornton), RECOVERED by IND-59-C.June at IND 40. [WPA -11.1% · EPA -3.77]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 11:57) — (11:57) 18-P.Manning pass incomplete to 44-D.Clark (52-D.Smith). Play Challenged by JAX and REVERSED. 18-P.Manning pass intended for 44-D.Clark INTERCEPTED by 52-D.Smith at IND 49. 52-D.Smith to IND 4 [WPA -11.8% · EPA -3.55]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q1 53:57) — (8:57) 22-L.Toefield up the middle to IND 24 for no gain (94-R.Morris; 79-R.Brock). [WPA -8.8% · EPA -3.26]

Quarterback report card

B.Leftwich led all passers in efficiency for Jacksonville Jaguars, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• B.Leftwich (Jacksonville Jaguars) · 47 dropbacks · 61.7% completion · +0.37 EPA/play · +17.54 total EPA
• P.Manning (Indianapolis Colts) · 30 dropbacks · 66.7% completion · +0.41 EPA/play · +12.20 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Indianapolis Colts generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.22 vs +0.07), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Indianapolis Colts: 9 drives, +15.45 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• Jacksonville Jaguars: 9 drives, +6.04 total EPA, 4 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Indianapolis Colts leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• B. Leftwich (Jacksonville Jaguars) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q1 51:00 · JAX 15 · Score 6-0
   (6:00) 18-P.Manning pass to 88-M.Harrison for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q1 50:55 · JAX 2 · Score 7-0
   13-M.Vanderjagt extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
3. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q2 30:43 · JAX 28 · Score 10-0
   (:43) 13-M.Vanderjagt 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars FG (+3) — Q2 30:05 · IND 29 · Score 10-3
   (:05) 10-J.Scobee 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-2-C.Hanson.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars FG (+3) — Q3 23:51 · IND 24 · Score 10-6
   (8:51) 10-J.Scobee 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-2-C.Hanson.
6. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q3 17:59 · JAX 16 · Score 16-6
   (2:59) 18-P.Manning pass to 81-M.Pollard for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q3 17:54 · JAX 2 · Score 17-6
   13-M.Vanderjagt extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
8. Jacksonville Jaguars FG (+3) — Q4 12:07 · IND 4 · Score 17-9
   (12:07) 10-J.Scobee 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-2-C.Hanson.
9. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q4 10:45 · IND 40 · Score 17-15
   (10:45) (Shotgun) 7-B.Leftwich pass to 82-J.Smith for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars Safety (+2) — Q4 10:37 · IND 2 · Score 17-17
    TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 7-B.Leftwich pass to 86-B.Jones is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
11. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q4 3:42 · JAX 3 · Score 23-17
    (3:42) 32-E.James up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q4 3:33 · JAX 2 · Score 24-17
    13-M.Vanderjagt extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.