Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: 2003 Week 10 Recap

Game story

In Week 10 of the 2003 NFL season on 2003-11-09, the Jacksonville Jaguars took care of business against the Indianapolis Colts, pulling away with a 28–23 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 17 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

P. Manning (Indianapolis Colts) paced the passing game, with +17.48 total EPA.

On the individual side, P. Manning (Indianapolis Colts) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +17.48 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-39.7% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Jacksonville Jaguars changed the game: (2:15) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Royals pass intended for 80-K.Brady INTERCEPTED by 50-D.Thornton at IND 18. 50-D.Thornton to IND 20 for 2 yards (80-K.Brady). Mishandled snap by JJ3 (Royals).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 P. Manning · Indianapolis Colts · Passing · +17.48 total EPA · 48 snaps · +0.36 EPA/play
2. 2 B. Leftwich · Jacksonville Jaguars · Passing · +10.21 total EPA · 24 snaps · +0.43 EPA/play
3. 3 J. Smith · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +9.09 total EPA · 4 snaps · +2.27 EPA/play
4. 4 M. Pollard · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +8.60 total EPA · 3 snaps · +2.87 EPA/play
5. 5 F. Taylor · Jacksonville Jaguars · Rushing · +8.55 total EPA · 29 snaps · +0.29 EPA/play
6. 6 T. Walters · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +7.47 total EPA · 5 snaps · +1.49 EPA/play
7. 7 M. Harrison · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +4.49 total EPA · 1 snaps · +4.49 EPA/play
8. 8 R. Wayne · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +3.55 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.59 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Indianapolis Colts — M. Harrison (P. Manning pass) (Q1 55:15)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — F. Taylor (Q1 46:24)
• Indianapolis Colts — M. Pollard (P. Manning pass) (Q2 30:33)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — B. Leftwich (Q3 23:31)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — J. Smith (B. Leftwich pass) (Q4 11:41)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — F. Taylor (Q4 1:14)

Field goals

• Indianapolis Colts — M. Vanderjagt (Q2 41:12)
• Indianapolis Colts — M. Vanderjagt (Q2 36:55)
• Indianapolis Colts — M. Vanderjagt (Q4 9:48)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the JAX 30 (Q1 55:15) — (10:15) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass to 88-M.Harrison for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the JAX 2 (Q1 55:07) — 13-M.Vanderjagt extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the IND 5 (Q1 46:24) — (1:24) 28-F.Taylor left tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q1 46:19) — 6-S.Marler extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-M.Royals..

The second quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 13–0. Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the JAX 9 (Q2 41:12) — (11:12) 13-M.Vanderjagt 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.; Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the JAX 8 (Q2 36:55) — (6:55) 13-M.Vanderjagt 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the JAX 13 (Q2 30:33) — (:33) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass to 81-M.Pollard for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the JAX 2 (Q2 30:28) — 13-M.Vanderjagt extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith..

The third quarter: Jacksonville Jaguars won the period 7–0. Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the IND 4 (Q3 23:31) — (8:31) (Shotgun) 7-B.Leftwich up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q3 23:26) — 6-S.Marler extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-M.Royals..

The fourth quarter: Jacksonville Jaguars won the period 14–3. Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the IND 43 (Q4 11:41) — (11:41) 7-B.Leftwich pass to 82-J.Smith for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q4 11:32) — 6-S.Marler extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-M.Royals.; Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the JAX 9 (Q4 9:48) — (9:48) 13-M.Vanderjagt 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the IND 32 (Q4 1:14) — (1:14) 28-F.Taylor right tackle for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q4 1:08) — 6-S.Marler extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-M.Royals..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 2:15) — (2:15) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Royals pass intended for 80-K.Brady INTERCEPTED by 50-D.Thornton at IND 18. 50-D.Thornton to IND 20 for 2 yards (80-K.Brady). Mishandled snap by JJ3 (Royals). [WPA -39.7% · EPA -3.22]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 1:43) — (1:43) 17-H.Smith punts 35 yards to JAX 42, Center-48-J.Snow. 34-D.Allen to IND 31 for 27 yards (31-C.Crosby). [WPA -30.3% · EPA -2.18]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 1:14) — (1:14) 28-F.Taylor right tackle for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +25.8% · EPA +4.77]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 11:41) — (11:41) 7-B.Leftwich pass to 82-J.Smith for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +23.3% · EPA +4.12]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 11:26) — (11:26) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass to 81-M.Pollard to JAX 9 for 70 yards (27-R.Mathis). Ball caught on IC 19. [WPA +18.5% · EPA +4.79]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 11:26) — (11:26) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass to 81-M.Pollard to JAX 9 for 70 yards (27-R.Mathis). Ball caught on IC 19. [WPA +18.5% · EPA +4.79]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 1:14) — (1:14) 28-F.Taylor right tackle for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +25.8% · EPA +4.77]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q1 55:15) — (10:15) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass to 88-M.Harrison for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +13.3% · EPA +4.49]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q4 11:41) — (11:41) 7-B.Leftwich pass to 82-J.Smith for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +23.3% · EPA +4.12]

Quarterback report card

P.Manning led all passers in efficiency for Indianapolis Colts, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• P.Manning (Indianapolis Colts) · 48 dropbacks · 58.3% completion · +0.36 EPA/play · +17.48 total EPA
• B.Leftwich (Jacksonville Jaguars) · 24 dropbacks · 50.0% completion · +0.43 EPA/play · +10.21 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Indianapolis Colts +0.15, Jacksonville Jaguars +0.18) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Indianapolis Colts: 11 drives, +13.27 total EPA, 5 scoring drives
• Jacksonville Jaguars: 11 drives, +14.86 total EPA, 4 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Jacksonville Jaguars leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• P. Manning (Indianapolis Colts) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q1 55:15 · JAX 30 · Score 6-0
   (10:15) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass to 88-M.Harrison for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q1 55:07 · JAX 2 · Score 7-0
   13-M.Vanderjagt extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q1 46:24 · IND 5 · Score 7-6
   (1:24) 28-F.Taylor left tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q1 46:19 · IND 2 · Score 7-7
   6-S.Marler extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-M.Royals.
5. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q2 41:12 · JAX 9 · Score 10-7
   (11:12) 13-M.Vanderjagt 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
6. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q2 36:55 · JAX 8 · Score 13-7
   (6:55) 13-M.Vanderjagt 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
7. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q2 30:33 · JAX 13 · Score 19-7
   (:33) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass to 81-M.Pollard for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q2 30:28 · JAX 2 · Score 20-7
   13-M.Vanderjagt extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
9. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q3 23:31 · IND 4 · Score 20-13
   (8:31) (Shotgun) 7-B.Leftwich up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q3 23:26 · IND 2 · Score 20-14
    6-S.Marler extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-M.Royals.
11. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q4 11:41 · IND 43 · Score 20-20
    (11:41) 7-B.Leftwich pass to 82-J.Smith for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q4 11:32 · IND 2 · Score 20-21
    6-S.Marler extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-M.Royals.
13. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q4 9:48 · JAX 9 · Score 23-21
    (9:48) 13-M.Vanderjagt 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
14. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q4 1:14 · IND 32 · Score 23-27
    (1:14) 28-F.Taylor right tackle for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q4 1:08 · IND 2 · Score 23-28
    6-S.Marler extra point is GOOD, Center-88-J.Zelenka, Holder-3-M.Royals.