Indianapolis Colts vs. Buffalo Bills: 2021 Week 11 Recap

Game story

In Week 11 of the 2021 NFL season on 2021-11-21, the Indianapolis Colts took care of business against the Buffalo Bills, pulling away with a 41–15 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 17 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

J. Allen (Buffalo Bills) paced the passing game, with -1.73 total EPA, and -3.4% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, J. Taylor (Indianapolis Colts) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +12.39 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-13.0% win probability) landed in the second quarter when Buffalo Bills changed the game: 8-R.Sanchez kicks 62 yards from IND 35 to BUF 3. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 15 for 12 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by IND-38-T.Carrie at BUF 16. 38-T.Carrie to BUF 2 for 14 yards (46-J.Johnson; 9-A.Smith).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 J. Taylor · Indianapolis Colts · Rushing · +12.39 total EPA · 32 snaps · +0.39 EPA/play
2. 2 C. Wentz · Indianapolis Colts · Passing · +10.40 total EPA · 24 snaps · +0.43 EPA/play
3. 3 T. Hilton · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +4.19 total EPA · 2 snaps · +2.10 EPA/play
4. 4 S. Diggs · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +3.78 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.63 EPA/play
5. 5 M. Breida · Buffalo Bills · Rushing · +3.24 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.65 EPA/play
6. 6 D. Knox · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +2.27 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.23 EPA/play
7. 7 J. Doyle · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +1.78 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.36 EPA/play
8. 8 J. Allen · Buffalo Bills · Rushing · +1.45 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.72 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Indianapolis Colts — J. Taylor (Q1 53:59)
• Indianapolis Colts — J. Taylor (C. Wentz pass) (Q1 46:48)
• Buffalo Bills — S. Diggs (J. Allen pass) (Q2 40:48)
• Indianapolis Colts — J. Taylor (Q2 32:03)
• Indianapolis Colts — J. Taylor (Q3 20:33)
• Indianapolis Colts — J. Taylor (Q3 16:02)
• Buffalo Bills — S. Diggs (J. Allen pass) (Q4 12:48)

Field goals

• Indianapolis Colts — M. Badgley (Q2 32:16)
• Indianapolis Colts — M. Badgley (Q4 6:27)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 14–0. Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the BUF 3 (Q1 53:59) — (8:59) 28-J.Taylor left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q1 53:55) — 6-M.Badgley extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the BUF 23 (Q1 46:48) — (1:48) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short left to 28-J.Taylor for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q1 46:38) — 6-M.Badgley extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez..

The second quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 10–7. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the IND 6 (Q2 40:48) — (10:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 14-S.Diggs for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the IND 15 (Q2 40:44) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.; Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the BUF 17 (Q2 32:16) — (2:16) 6-M.Badgley 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the BUF 2 (Q2 32:03) — (2:03) 28-J.Taylor left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q2 31:59) — 6-M.Badgley extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez..

The third quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 14–0. Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the BUF 10 (Q3 20:33) — (5:33) 28-J.Taylor left tackle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q3 20:27) — 6-M.Badgley extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the BUF 1 (Q3 16:02) — (1:02) 28-J.Taylor up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q3 15:58) — 6-M.Badgley extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez..

The fourth quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 8–3. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the IND 9 (Q4 12:48) — (12:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills registered a safety from the IND 2 (Q4 12:42) — TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 17-J.Allen rushes right end. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.; Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the BUF 17 (Q4 6:27) — (6:27) 6-M.Badgley 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Buffalo Bills (Q2 32:12) — 8-R.Sanchez kicks 62 yards from IND 35 to BUF 3. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 15 for 12 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by IND-38-T.Carrie at BUF 16. 38-T.Carrie to BUF 2 for 14 yards (46-J.Johnson; 9-A.Smith). [WPA -13.0% · EPA -7.17]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 40:48) — (10:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 14-S.Diggs for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +8.5% · EPA +1.90]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 49:10) — (4:10) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right intended for 13-G.Davis INTERCEPTED by 30-G.Odum at IND 22. 30-G.Odum pushed ob at IND 43 for 21 yards (74-C.Ford). [WPA -8.4% · EPA -3.36]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q1 56:42) — (11:42) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short middle to 11-M.Pittman to BUF 22 for 18 yards (27-T.White, 23-M.Hyde). [WPA +7.6% · EPA +2.23]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q2 39:55) — (9:55) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass incomplete short left to 84-J.Doyle. PENALTY on BUF-97-M.Addison, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at IND 27 - No Play. Penalty on BUF-27-T.White, Defensive Pass [WPA +6.7% · EPA +2.09]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Buffalo Bills (Q2 32:12) — 8-R.Sanchez kicks 62 yards from IND 35 to BUF 3. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 15 for 12 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by IND-38-T.Carrie at BUF 16. 38-T.Carrie to BUF 2 for 14 yards (46-J.Johnson; 9-A.Smith). [WPA -13.0% · EPA -7.17]
• Buffalo Bills (Q3 19:40) — (4:40) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 1-E.Sanders INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Moore (27-X.Rhodes) [97-A.Muhammad] at BUF 38. 23-K.Moore pushed ob at BUF 24 for 14 yards (65-I.Boettger). [WPA -0.3% · EPA -4.30]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 4:56) — (4:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right intended for 89-T.Sweeney INTERCEPTED by 44-Z.Franklin at 50. 44-Z.Franklin to BUF 42 for 8 yards (19-I.McKenzie). [WPA +0.0% · EPA -3.99]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q3 28:36) — (13:36) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short left to 13-T.Hilton pushed ob at IND 47 for 18 yards (21-J.Poyer) [93-E.Obada]. PENALTY on BUF-21-J.Poyer, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at IND 47. [WPA +2.8% · EPA +3.42]

Quarterback report card

J.Allen led all passers in efficiency for Buffalo Bills, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• J.Allen (Buffalo Bills) · 38 dropbacks · 55.3% completion · -3.4% CPOE · -0.05 EPA/play · -1.73 total EPA
• C.Wentz (Indianapolis Colts) · 24 dropbacks · 45.8% completion · -14.3% CPOE · +0.43 EPA/play · +10.40 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Indianapolis Colts generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.25 vs -0.19), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Buffalo Bills: 10 drives, -13.52 total EPA, 2 scoring drives
• Indianapolis Colts: 9 drives, +20.54 total EPA, 7 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Indianapolis Colts leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• J. Taylor (Indianapolis Colts) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• J. Allen (BUF) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.
• C. Wentz (IND) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q1 53:59 · BUF 3 · Score 6-0
   (8:59) 28-J.Taylor left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q1 53:55 · BUF 15 · Score 7-0
   6-M.Badgley extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
3. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q1 46:48 · BUF 23 · Score 13-0
   (1:48) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short left to 28-J.Taylor for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q1 46:38 · BUF 15 · Score 14-0
   6-M.Badgley extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
5. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 40:48 · IND 6 · Score 14-6
   (10:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 14-S.Diggs for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 40:44 · IND 15 · Score 14-7
   2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.
7. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q2 32:16 · BUF 17 · Score 17-7
   (2:16) 6-M.Badgley 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
8. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q2 32:03 · BUF 2 · Score 23-7
   (2:03) 28-J.Taylor left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q2 31:59 · BUF 15 · Score 24-7
   6-M.Badgley extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
10. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q3 20:33 · BUF 10 · Score 30-7
    (5:33) 28-J.Taylor left tackle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q3 20:27 · BUF 15 · Score 31-7
    6-M.Badgley extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
12. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q3 16:02 · BUF 1 · Score 37-7
    (1:02) 28-J.Taylor up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
13. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q3 15:58 · BUF 15 · Score 38-7
    6-M.Badgley extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
14. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q4 12:48 · IND 9 · Score 38-13
    (12:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15. Buffalo Bills Safety (+2) — Q4 12:42 · IND 2 · Score 38-15
    TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 17-J.Allen rushes right end. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
16. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q4 6:27 · BUF 17 · Score 41-15
    (6:27) 6-M.Badgley 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.