Indianapolis Colts vs. Buffalo Bills: 2020 Week 18 Recap

Game story

In Week 18 of the 2020 NFL season on 2021-01-09, the Buffalo Bills took care of business against the Indianapolis Colts, pulling away with a 27–24 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 24 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

P. Rivers (Indianapolis Colts) paced the passing game, with +14.81 total EPA, and -4.8% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, P. Rivers (Indianapolis Colts) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +14.81 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+18.1% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Indianapolis Colts changed the game: (:50) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 14-Z.Pascal to BUF 46 for 17 yards (21-J.Poyer). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 P. Rivers · Indianapolis Colts · Passing · +14.81 total EPA · 47 snaps · +0.32 EPA/play
2. 2 J. Allen · Buffalo Bills · Passing · +12.62 total EPA · 41 snaps · +0.31 EPA/play
3. 3 S. Diggs · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +8.92 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.99 EPA/play
4. 4 J. Doyle · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +5.59 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.56 EPA/play
5. 5 G. Davis · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +4.95 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.24 EPA/play
6. 6 T. Burton · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +4.29 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.43 EPA/play
7. 7 N. Hines · Indianapolis Colts · Rushing · +3.82 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.64 EPA/play
8. 8 Z. Pascal · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +3.73 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.75 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Buffalo Bills — D. Knox (J. Allen pass) (Q1 46:56)
• Indianapolis Colts — J. Taylor (Q2 38:10)
• Buffalo Bills — J. Allen (Q2 30:20)
• Buffalo Bills — S. Diggs (J. Allen pass) (Q4 14:17)
• Indianapolis Colts — Z. Pascal (P. Rivers pass) (Q4 11:36)
• Indianapolis Colts — J. Doyle (P. Rivers pass) (Q4 6:20)

Field goals

• Indianapolis Colts — R. Blankenship (Q1 50:33)
• Buffalo Bills — T. Bass (Q3 26:10)
• Buffalo Bills — T. Bass (Q4 8:13)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 7–3. Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the BUF 12 (Q1 50:33) — (5:33) 3-R.Blankenship 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the IND 3 (Q1 46:56) — (1:56) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-T.Lewis].; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the IND 15 (Q1 46:49) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez..

The second quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the BUF 1 (Q2 38:10) — (8:10) P.Rivers returns at QB. 28-J.Taylor up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q2 38:07) — 3-R.Blankenship extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the IND 5 (Q2 30:20) — (:20) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the IND 15 (Q2 30:14) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez..

The third quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 3–0. Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the IND 28 (Q3 26:10) — (11:10) 2-T.Bass 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez..

The fourth quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 14–10. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the IND 35 (Q4 14:17) — (14:17) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 14-S.Diggs for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the IND 15 (Q4 14:10) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the BUF 9 (Q4 11:36) — (11:36) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 14-Z.Pascal for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the IND 36 (Q4 8:13) — (8:13) 2-T.Bass 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the BUF 27 (Q4 6:20) — (6:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 84-J.Doyle for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts registered a safety from the BUF 2 (Q4 6:13) — TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 17-P.Rivers pass to 84-J.Doyle is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. Pass caught 8 yds. into end zone, over middle..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 0:50) — (:50) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 14-Z.Pascal to BUF 46 for 17 yards (21-J.Poyer). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling [WPA +18.1% · EPA +1.22]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 0:04) — (:04) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete deep right (23-M.Hyde). [WPA -12.3% · EPA -0.19]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q1 53:29) — (8:29) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 13-T.Hilton to BUF 37 for 23 yards (39-L.Wallace). Penalty on BUF-58-M.Milano, Defensive Offside, declined. [WPA +11.2% · EPA +2.80]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 0:26) — (:26) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 11-M.Pittman to BUF 45 for 1 yard (39-L.Wallace, 23-M.Hyde). FUMBLES (39-L.Wallace), ball out of bounds at BUF 47. [WPA -10.6% · EPA -0.67]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 0:55) — (:55) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short right to 13-T.Hilton (27-T.White). [WPA -10.4% · EPA -0.43]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Indianapolis Colts (Q3 18:36) — (3:36) 3-R.Blankenship 33 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. Ball hit right upright, then left upright. [WPA -6.0% · EPA -4.21]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 14:17) — (14:17) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 14-S.Diggs for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +5.9% · EPA +3.30]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 6:20) — (6:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 84-J.Doyle for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +8.3% · EPA +3.03]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 11:36) — (11:36) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 14-Z.Pascal for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +5.8% · EPA +2.91]

Quarterback report card

P.Rivers led all passers in efficiency for Indianapolis Colts, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• P.Rivers (Indianapolis Colts) · 47 dropbacks · 57.4% completion · -4.8% CPOE · +0.32 EPA/play · +14.81 total EPA
• J.Allen (Buffalo Bills) · 41 dropbacks · 63.4% completion · +12.7% CPOE · +0.31 EPA/play · +12.62 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Indianapolis Colts +0.13, Buffalo Bills +0.18) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Buffalo Bills: 10 drives, +13.19 total EPA, 5 scoring drives
• Indianapolis Colts: 10 drives, +12.21 total EPA, 4 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Buffalo Bills leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• P. Rivers (Indianapolis Colts) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• P. Rivers (IND) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.
• J. Allen (BUF) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q1 50:33 · BUF 12 · Score 3-0
   (5:33) 3-R.Blankenship 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
2. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q1 46:56 · IND 3 · Score 3-6
   (1:56) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-T.Lewis].
3. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q1 46:49 · IND 15 · Score 3-7
   2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
4. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q2 38:10 · BUF 1 · Score 9-7
   (8:10) P.Rivers returns at QB. 28-J.Taylor up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
5. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q2 38:07 · BUF 15 · Score 10-7
   3-R.Blankenship extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
6. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 30:20 · IND 5 · Score 10-13
   (:20) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 30:14 · IND 15 · Score 10-14
   2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
8. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q3 26:10 · IND 28 · Score 10-17
   (11:10) 2-T.Bass 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
9. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q4 14:17 · IND 35 · Score 10-23
   (14:17) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 14-S.Diggs for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q4 14:10 · IND 15 · Score 10-24
    2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
11. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q4 11:36 · BUF 9 · Score 16-24
    (11:36) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 14-Z.Pascal for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q4 8:13 · IND 36 · Score 16-27
    (8:13) 2-T.Bass 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
13. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q4 6:20 · BUF 27 · Score 22-27
    (6:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 84-J.Doyle for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14. Indianapolis Colts Safety (+2) — Q4 6:13 · BUF 2 · Score 24-27
    TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 17-P.Rivers pass to 84-J.Doyle is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. Pass caught 8 yds. into end zone, over middle.