Indianapolis Colts vs. Buffalo Bills: 2003 Week 12 Recap

Game story

In Week 12 of the 2003 NFL season on 2003-11-23, the Indianapolis Colts took care of business against the Buffalo Bills, pulling away with a 17–14 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 21 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

P. Manning (Indianapolis Colts) paced the passing game, with +5.13 total EPA.

On the individual side, A. Moorehead (Indianapolis Colts) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +7.13 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-31.4% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Buffalo Bills changed the game: (:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-D.Bledsoe pass intended for 82-J.Reed INTERCEPTED by 50-D.Thornton at IND 47. 50-D.Thornton to IND 48 for 1 yard (82-J.Reed). Coverage over middle.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 A. Moorehead · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +7.13 total EPA · 5 snaps · +1.43 EPA/play
2. 2 P. Manning · Indianapolis Colts · Passing · +5.13 total EPA · 45 snaps · +0.11 EPA/play
3. 3 R. Wayne · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +4.58 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.15 EPA/play
4. 4 M. Harrison · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +4.35 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.73 EPA/play
5. 5 B. Moorman · Buffalo Bills · Rushing · +4.35 total EPA · 1 snaps · +4.35 EPA/play
6. 6 B. Shaw · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +3.30 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.65 EPA/play
7. 7 S. Morris · Buffalo Bills · Rushing · +2.88 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.88 EPA/play
8. 8 J. Reed · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +2.36 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.79 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Buffalo Bills — D. Bledsoe (Q2 32:10)
• Buffalo Bills — S. Morris (Q4 14:57)
• Indianapolis Colts — E. James (Q4 10:48)
• Indianapolis Colts — E. James (Q4 1:42)

Field goals

• Indianapolis Colts — M. Vanderjagt (Q2 38:45)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The second quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 7–3. Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the BUF 6 (Q2 38:45) — (8:45) 13-M.Vanderjagt 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the IND 1 (Q2 32:10) — (2:10) 11-D.Bledsoe up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Key Block: M.Pucillo; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q2 32:07) — 9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-70-T.Teague, Holder-8-B.Moorman..

The fourth quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 14–7. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the IND 7 (Q4 14:57) — (14:57) 31-S.Morris up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Draw play, key block: T.Teague.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q4 14:51) — 9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-70-T.Teague, Holder-8-B.Moorman.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the BUF 14 (Q4 10:48) — (10:48) 32-E.James left guard for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Key block: R.DeMulling.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the BUF 1 (Q4 1:42) — (1:42) 32-E.James up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts registered a safety from the BUF 2 (Q4 1:38) — TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 18-P.Manning pass to 23-J.Mungro is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Buffalo Bills (Q4 0:42) — (:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-D.Bledsoe pass intended for 82-J.Reed INTERCEPTED by 50-D.Thornton at IND 47. 50-D.Thornton to IND 48 for 1 yard (82-J.Reed). Coverage over middle. [WPA -31.4% · EPA -1.16]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q2 30:32) — (:32) (No Huddle) 32-E.James right guard to BUF 7 for 3 yards (24-T.McGee). FUMBLES (24-T.McGee), touched at BUF 5, RECOVERED by BUF-59-L.Fletcher at BUF 13. 59-L.Fletcher to BUF 16 for 3 yards (88-M. [WPA -18.5% · EPA -4.25]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 37:31) — (7:31) 8-B.Moorman FUMBLES (Aborted) at BUF 29, touched at BUF 13, and recovers at BUF 13. 8-B.Moorman ran ob at 50 for 37 yards. PENALTY on IND-25-N.Harper, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced [WPA +18.0% · EPA +4.35]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 1:42) — (1:42) 32-E.James up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +13.5% · EPA +2.95]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 1:38) — TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 18-P.Manning pass to 23-J.Mungro is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. [WPA +11.1% · EPA +1.05]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Buffalo Bills (Q2 37:31) — (7:31) 8-B.Moorman FUMBLES (Aborted) at BUF 29, touched at BUF 13, and recovers at BUF 13. 8-B.Moorman ran ob at 50 for 37 yards. PENALTY on IND-25-N.Harper, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced [WPA +18.0% · EPA +4.35]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q2 30:32) — (:32) (No Huddle) 32-E.James right guard to BUF 7 for 3 yards (24-T.McGee). FUMBLES (24-T.McGee), touched at BUF 5, RECOVERED by BUF-59-L.Fletcher at BUF 13. 59-L.Fletcher to BUF 16 for 3 yards (88-M. [WPA -18.5% · EPA -4.25]
• Buffalo Bills (Q3 15:42) — (:42) 20-T.Henry left end ran ob at IND 20 for 13 yards. Key Block: D.Moore PENALTY on IND-20-M.Doss, Unnecessary Roughness, 10 yards, enforced at IND 20. [WPA +9.6% · EPA +3.48]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 33:38) — (3:38) 11-D.Bledsoe pass to 81-B.Shaw to IND 1 for 14 yards (50-D.Thornton). Caught at IND 6, right side. [WPA +9.3% · EPA +3.18]

Quarterback report card

P.Manning led all passers in efficiency for Indianapolis Colts, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• P.Manning (Indianapolis Colts) · 45 dropbacks · 57.8% completion · +0.11 EPA/play · +5.13 total EPA
• D.Bledsoe (Buffalo Bills) · 30 dropbacks · 50.0% completion · -0.31 EPA/play · -9.42 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Indianapolis Colts +0.07, Buffalo Bills +0.02) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Buffalo Bills: 11 drives, +1.82 total EPA, 2 scoring drives
• Indianapolis Colts: 11 drives, +6.55 total EPA, 3 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Indianapolis Colts leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• A. Moorehead (Indianapolis Colts) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q2 38:45 · BUF 6 · Score 3-0
   (8:45) 13-M.Vanderjagt 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
2. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 32:10 · IND 1 · Score 3-6
   (2:10) 11-D.Bledsoe up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Key Block: M.Pucillo
3. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 32:07 · IND 2 · Score 3-7
   9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-70-T.Teague, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
4. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q4 14:57 · IND 7 · Score 3-13
   (14:57) 31-S.Morris up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Draw play, key block: T.Teague.
5. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q4 14:51 · IND 2 · Score 3-14
   9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-70-T.Teague, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
6. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q4 10:48 · BUF 14 · Score 9-14
   (10:48) 32-E.James left guard for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Key block: R.DeMulling.
7. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q4 1:42 · BUF 1 · Score 15-14
   (1:42) 32-E.James up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
8. Indianapolis Colts Safety (+2) — Q4 1:38 · BUF 2 · Score 17-14
   TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 18-P.Manning pass to 23-J.Mungro is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.