Indianapolis Colts vs. Arizona Cardinals: 2021 Week 16 Recap

Game story

In Week 16 of the 2021 NFL season on 2021-12-25, the Indianapolis Colts took care of business against the Arizona Cardinals, pulling away with a 22–16 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q1 with 13 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

K. Murray (Arizona Cardinals) paced the passing game, with -3.04 total EPA, and -1.4% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, C. Wentz (Indianapolis Colts) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +9.50 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-19.3% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Arizona Cardinals changed the game: (11:12) 5-M.Prater 41 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-R.Winslow.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 C. Wentz · Indianapolis Colts · Passing · +9.50 total EPA · 37 snaps · +0.26 EPA/play
2. 2 T. Hilton · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +4.20 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.84 EPA/play
3. 3 D. Patmon · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +3.24 total EPA · 1 snaps · +3.24 EPA/play
4. 4 K. Murray · Arizona Cardinals · Rushing · +2.54 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.64 EPA/play
5. 5 C. Edmonds · Arizona Cardinals · Receiving · +2.47 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.27 EPA/play
6. 6 M. Alie-Cox · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +2.35 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.59 EPA/play
7. 7 J. Ward · Arizona Cardinals · Rushing · +2.31 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.31 EPA/play
8. 8 A. Dulin · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +1.97 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.98 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Indianapolis Colts — T. Hilton (C. Wentz pass) (Q1 51:16)
• Arizona Cardinals — C. Edmonds (Q1 48:06)
• Arizona Cardinals — A. Wesley (K. Murray pass) (Q3 25:58)
• Indianapolis Colts — D. Patmon (C. Wentz pass) (Q4 6:45)

Field goals

• Indianapolis Colts — M. Badgley (Q2 30:05)
• Indianapolis Colts — M. Badgley (Q3 15:07)
• Arizona Cardinals — M. Prater (Q4 0:46)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 7–6. Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the ARI 1 (Q1 51:16) — (6:16) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short left to 13-T.Hilton for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the ARI 15 (Q1 51:11) — 6-M.Badgley extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.; Arizona Cardinals found the end zone from the IND 2 (Q1 48:06) — (3:06) 2-C.Edmonds up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN..

The second quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 5–0. Indianapolis Colts registered a safety from the IND 89 (Q2 34:25); Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the ARI 23 (Q2 30:05) — (:05) 6-M.Badgley 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez..

The third quarter: Arizona Cardinals won the period 7–3. Arizona Cardinals found the end zone from the IND 24 (Q3 25:58) — (10:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 85-A.Wesley for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Arizona Cardinals added 1 points from the IND 15 (Q3 25:53) — 5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-R.Winslow.; Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the ARI 19 (Q3 15:07) — (:07) 6-M.Badgley 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez..

The fourth quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 7–3. Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the ARI 14 (Q4 6:45); Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the ARI 7 (Q4 6:37) — 6-M.Badgley extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.; Arizona Cardinals connected on a field goal from the IND 10 (Q4 0:46) — (:46) 5-M.Prater 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-R.Winslow..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Arizona Cardinals (Q4 11:12) — (11:12) 5-M.Prater 41 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-R.Winslow. [WPA -19.3% · EPA -3.77]
• Arizona Cardinals (Q4 13:10) — (13:10) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 18-A.Green to IND 30 for 33 yards (27-X.Rhodes). [WPA +16.2% · EPA +3.36]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 8:51) — (8:51) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass deep right to 13-T.Hilton pushed ob at ARI 15 for 39 yards (3-B.Baker). [WPA +15.9% · EPA +3.04]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q3 19:02) — (4:02) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short left to 81-M.Alie-Cox to ARI 32 for 37 yards (3-B.Baker). [WPA +14.3% · EPA +3.52]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q2 44:14) — (14:14) 6-M.Badgley 53 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. [WPA -12.8% · EPA -3.77]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Arizona Cardinals (Q1 49:28) — (4:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray left tackle to IND 2 for 57 yards (30-G.Odum). [WPA +11.4% · EPA +3.97]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q2 44:14) — (14:14) 6-M.Badgley 53 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. [WPA -12.8% · EPA -3.77]
• Arizona Cardinals (Q4 11:12) — (11:12) 5-M.Prater 41 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-R.Winslow. [WPA -19.3% · EPA -3.77]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q3 19:02) — (4:02) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short left to 81-M.Alie-Cox to ARI 32 for 37 yards (3-B.Baker). [WPA +14.3% · EPA +3.52]

Quarterback report card

K.Murray led all passers in efficiency for Arizona Cardinals, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• K.Murray (Arizona Cardinals) · 44 dropbacks · 61.4% completion · -1.4% CPOE · -0.07 EPA/play · -3.04 total EPA
• C.Wentz (Indianapolis Colts) · 37 dropbacks · 48.6% completion · -2.8% CPOE · +0.26 EPA/play · +9.50 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Indianapolis Colts generated the better offensive EPA per play (-0.03 vs -0.12), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Arizona Cardinals: 10 drives, -9.34 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• Indianapolis Colts: 10 drives, -2.27 total EPA, 4 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Indianapolis Colts leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• C. Wentz (Indianapolis Colts) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q1 51:16 · ARI 1 · Score 6-0
   (6:16) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short left to 13-T.Hilton for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q1 51:11 · ARI 15 · Score 7-0
   6-M.Badgley extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
3. Arizona Cardinals TD (+6) — Q1 48:06 · IND 2 · Score 7-6
   (3:06) 2-C.Edmonds up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Indianapolis Colts Safety (+2) — Q2 34:25 · IND 89 · Score 9-6
   (4:25) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray to ARI 6 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at ARI -5. 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on ARI-1-K.Murray, Intention
5. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q2 30:05 · ARI 23 · Score 12-6
   (:05) 6-M.Badgley 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
6. Arizona Cardinals TD (+6) — Q3 25:58 · IND 24 · Score 12-12
   (10:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 85-A.Wesley for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7. Arizona Cardinals XP (+1) — Q3 25:53 · IND 15 · Score 12-13
   5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-R.Winslow.
8. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q3 15:07 · ARI 19 · Score 15-13
   (:07) 6-M.Badgley 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
9. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q4 6:45 · ARI 14 · Score 21-13
   (6:45) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short left to 10-D.Patmon for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on ARI-94-Z.Allen, Roughing the Passer, 8 yards, enforced between dow
10. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q4 6:37 · ARI 7 · Score 22-13
    6-M.Badgley extra point is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
11. Arizona Cardinals FG (+3) — Q4 0:46 · IND 10 · Score 22-16
    (:46) 5-M.Prater 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-R.Winslow.