Game story
In Week 16 of the 2019 NFL season on 2019-12-21, the Houston Texans took care of business against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, pulling away with a 23–20 final that came down to the wire.
The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 21 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.
J. Winston (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) paced the passing game, with -4.82 total EPA, and -4.6% completion percentage over expected.
On the individual side, D. Carter (Houston Texans) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +2.82 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.
The momentum swing (-29.2% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Tampa Bay Buccaneers changed the game: (1:31) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left intended for 44-D.Ogunbowale INTERCEPTED by 37-J.Addae at TB 41. 37-J.Addae to TB 37 for 4 yards (80-O.Howard).
Line score
Final score and points by quarter.
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | — | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans | 10 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 23 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20 |
Stars of the game
Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.
- 1 D. Carter · Houston Texans · Receiving · +2.82 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.41 EPA/play
- 2 D. Fells · Houston Texans · Receiving · +2.70 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.90 EPA/play
- 3 C. McElroy · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +2.62 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.62 EPA/play
- 4 D. Watson · Houston Texans · Rushing · +1.87 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.93 EPA/play
- 5 C. Hyde · Houston Texans · Receiving · +1.05 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.05 EPA/play
- 6 O. Howard · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +0.59 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.08 EPA/play
- 7 R. Jones · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +0.53 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.13 EPA/play
- 8 B. Perriman · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +0.31 total EPA · 12 snaps · +0.03 EPA/play
Player of the game
FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.
D. Carter — HOU · Receiving
D. Carter posted the highest total EPA (+2.82) in the game, making the biggest overall impact on Houston Texans's efficiency. Across 2 counted snaps, they averaged +1.41 EPA per play.
The signature play (-7.25 EPA) came from Tampa Bay Buccaneers: (14:19) 3-J.Winston pass short left intended for 17-J.Watson INTERCEPTED by 21-B.Roby [98-D.Reader] at TB 27. 21-B.Roby for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Who scored touchdowns and field goals
Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.
Touchdowns
- Houston Texans — B. Roby
- Houston Texans — C. Hyde
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers — R. Jones
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers — J. Watson (J. Winston pass)
Field goals
- Houston Texans — K. Fairbairn
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers — M. Gay
- Houston Texans — K. Fairbairn
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers — M. Gay
- Houston Texans — K. Fairbairn
How it unfolded, quarter by quarter
A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.
The opening quarter: Houston Texans won the period 10–3. Houston Texans found the end zone from the HOU 83 (Q1 59:19); Houston Texans added 1 points from the TB 15 (Q1 59:12) — 7-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.; Houston Texans connected on a field goal from the TB 14 (Q1 56:34) — (11:34) 7-K.Fairbairn 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers connected on a field goal from the HOU 32 (Q1 46:01) — (1:01) 9-M.Gay 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion..
The second quarter: Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the period 14–7. Houston Texans found the end zone from the TB 1 (Q2 39:25) — (9:25) (Shotgun) 23-C.Hyde up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Houston Texans added 1 points from the TB 15 (Q2 39:22) — 7-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the HOU 4 (Q2 32:00) — (2:00) (Shotgun) 27-R.Jones up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers added 1 points from the HOU 15 (Q2 31:57) — 9-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the HOU 8 (Q2 30:20) — (:20) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 17-J.Watson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers added 1 points from the HOU 15 (Q2 30:13) — 9-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion..
The third quarter: The quarter finished even at 3–3. Houston Texans connected on a field goal from the TB 7 (Q3 24:33) — (9:33) 7-K.Fairbairn 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers connected on a field goal from the HOU 23 (Q3 16:18) — (1:18) 9-M.Gay 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion..
The fourth quarter: Houston Texans won the period 3–0. Houston Texans connected on a field goal from the TB 19 (Q4 7:16) — (7:16) 7-K.Fairbairn 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger..
Turning points
Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q4 1:31) — (1:31) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left intended for 44-D.Ogunbowale INTERCEPTED by 37-J.Addae at TB 41. 37-J.Addae to TB 37 for 4 yards (80-O.Howard).
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q1 59:19) — (14:19) 3-J.Winston pass short left intended for 17-J.Watson INTERCEPTED by 21-B.Roby [98-D.Reader] at TB 27. 21-B.Roby for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q2 30:20) — (:20) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 17-J.Watson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q4 3:38) — (3:38) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass incomplete short right to 84-C.Brate.
- Houston Texans (Q4 9:31) — (9:31) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 14-D.Carter to TB 31 for 39 yards (54-L.David).
Impact plays
Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q1 59:19) — (14:19) 3-J.Winston pass short left intended for 17-J.Watson INTERCEPTED by 21-B.Roby [98-D.Reader] at TB 27. 21-B.Roby for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Houston Texans (Q2 44:23) — (14:23) (Shotgun) 25-D.Johnson left tackle to HOU 41 for 1 yard (54-L.David). FUMBLES (54-L.David), RECOVERED by TB-45-D.White at HOU 38. 45-D.White to HOU 31 for 7 yards (4-D.Watson).
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q2 42:24) — (12:24) 25-P.Barber up the middle to TB 37 for 7 yards (50-T.Adams). FUMBLES (50-T.Adams), RECOVERED by HOU-20-J.Reid at TB 42. 20-J.Reid to TB 42 for no gain (25-P.Barber).
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q2 44:15) — (14:15) 71-E.Watford reported in as eligible. 3-J.Winston pass deep right intended for 19-B.Perriman INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Joseph at HOU 14. 24-J.Joseph to HOU 14 for no gain (19-B.Perriman).
Quarterback report card
J.Winston led all passers in efficiency for Tampa Bay Buccaneers, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.
- J.Winston (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) · 54 dropbacks · 46.3% completion · -4.6% CPOE · -0.09 EPA/play · -4.82 total EPA
- D.Watson (Houston Texans) · 45 dropbacks · 42.2% completion · -6.3% CPOE · -0.10 EPA/play · -4.44 total EPA
Team stats comparison
Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.
| Stat | Houston Texans | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive EPA/play | -0.160 | -0.243 |
| Offensive success rate | 35.6% | 39.5% |
| Pass EPA/play | -0.099 | -0.089 |
| Rush EPA/play | -0.500 | -0.570 |
| Defensive EPA/play | +0.243 | +0.160 |
| Defensive success rate | 60.5% | 64.4% |
By the numbers
Despite the final score, Houston Texans generated the better offensive EPA per play (-0.16 vs -0.24), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.
- Houston Texans: 14 drives, -13.94 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 14 drives, -20.89 total EPA, 5 scoring drives
Key takeaways
What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.
- Houston Texans leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
- One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
- D. Carter (Houston Texans) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
- J. Winston (TB) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.
- D. Watson (HOU) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.
Every scoring play
Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.
- Houston Texans TD (+6) — Q1 59:19 · HOU 83 · Score 6-0
(14:19) 3-J.Winston pass short left intended for 17-J.Watson INTERCEPTED by 21-B.Roby [98-D.Reader] at TB 27. 21-B.Roby for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. - Houston Texans XP (+1) — Q1 59:12 · TB 15 · Score 7-0
7-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger. - Houston Texans FG (+3) — Q1 56:34 · TB 14 · Score 10-0
(11:34) 7-K.Fairbairn 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger. - Tampa Bay Buccaneers FG (+3) — Q1 46:01 · HOU 32 · Score 10-3
(1:01) 9-M.Gay 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. - Houston Texans TD (+6) — Q2 39:25 · TB 1 · Score 16-3
(9:25) (Shotgun) 23-C.Hyde up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. - Houston Texans XP (+1) — Q2 39:22 · TB 15 · Score 17-3
7-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger. - Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q2 32:00 · HOU 4 · Score 17-9
(2:00) (Shotgun) 27-R.Jones up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. - Tampa Bay Buccaneers XP (+1) — Q2 31:57 · HOU 15 · Score 17-10
9-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. - Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q2 30:20 · HOU 8 · Score 17-16
(:20) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 17-J.Watson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. - Tampa Bay Buccaneers XP (+1) — Q2 30:13 · HOU 15 · Score 17-17
9-M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. - Houston Texans FG (+3) — Q3 24:33 · TB 7 · Score 20-17
(9:33) 7-K.Fairbairn 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger. - Tampa Bay Buccaneers FG (+3) — Q3 16:18 · HOU 23 · Score 20-20
(1:18) 9-M.Gay 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. - Houston Texans FG (+3) — Q4 7:16 · TB 19 · Score 23-20
(7:16) 7-K.Fairbairn 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-B.Anger.
Frequently asked questions
Who won Houston Texans vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
The Houston Texans beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23-20 in Week 16, 2019 on 2019-12-21.
What was the final score of Houston Texans vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
The final score was Houston Texans 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 (HOU 23-20 TB) in Week 16, 2019 on 2019-12-21.
What was the score by quarter in Houston Texans vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
Q1: Houston Texans 10, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3; Q2: Houston Texans 7, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14; Q3: Houston Texans 3, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3; Q4: Houston Texans 3, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0; Final: Houston Texans 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20.
Who scored touchdowns and field goals in Houston Texans vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
Houston Texans touchdown — B. Roby (Q1 59:19) Houston Texans touchdown — C. Hyde (Q2 39:25) Tampa Bay Buccaneers touchdown — R. Jones (Q2 32:00) Tampa Bay Buccaneers touchdown — J. Watson (J. Winston pass) (Q2 30:20) Houston Texans field goal — K. Fairbairn (Q1 56:34, 3 pts) Tampa Bay Buccaneers field goal — M. Gay (Q1 46:01, 3 pts) Houston Texans field goal — K. Fairbairn (Q3 24:33, 3 pts) Tampa Bay Buccaneers field goal — M. Gay (Q3 16:18, 3 pts) Houston Texans field goal — K. Fairbairn (Q4 7:16, 3 pts) Extra points followed each touchdown unless noted in the play-by-play.
How did the quarterbacks play in Houston Texans vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
J. Winston (Tampa Bay Buccaneers), 46.3% completion, -4.6% CPOE, -0.09 EPA per dropback, -4.82 total passing EPA. D. Watson (Houston Texans), 42.2% completion, -6.3% CPOE, -0.10 EPA per dropback, -4.44 total passing EPA.
Who was the most impactful player in Houston Texans vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
D. Carter (Houston Texans) led the game in total EPA with +2.82 on receiving plays. across 2 snaps. The top single-play swing was (-7.25 EPA): (14:19) 3-J.Winston pass short left intended for 17-J.Watson INTERCEPTED by 21-B.Roby [98-D.Reader] at TB 27. 21-B.Roby for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.. The biggest win-probability swing was -29.2%.
Was Houston Texans vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers a close game?
Yes — the margin was 3 points. Houston Texans won 23-20 in a game that came down to the wire.
Season records after this game
Houston Texans
Entered 9-5 Now 10-5 W
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Entered 7-7 Now 7-8 L
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