Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: 2021 Week 15 Recap

Game story

In Week 15 of the 2021 NFL season on 2021-12-19, the Houston Texans took care of business against the Jacksonville Jaguars, pulling away with a 30–16 final that built a comfortable lead.

The highest-scoring period was Q1 with 17 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

T. Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars) paced the passing game, with -6.37 total EPA, and -7.8% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, B. Cooks (Houston Texans) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +7.78 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+16.5% win probability) landed in the opening quarter when Houston Texans changed the game: 15-M.Wright kicks 63 yards from JAX 35 to HOU 2. 24-T.Smith for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX-2-R.Jenkins was injured during the play. He is Out.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 B. Cooks · Houston Texans · Receiving · +7.78 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.78 EPA/play
2. 2 D. Mills · Houston Texans · Passing · +3.50 total EPA · 31 snaps · +0.11 EPA/play
3. 3 P. Dorsett · Houston Texans · Receiving · +1.89 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.63 EPA/play
4. 4 L. Treadwell · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +1.86 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.21 EPA/play
5. 5 L. Shenault · Jacksonville Jaguars · Rushing · +1.32 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.32 EPA/play
6. 6 J. O'Shaughnessy · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +1.11 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.28 EPA/play
7. 7 D. Johnson · Houston Texans · Receiving · +1.10 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.10 EPA/play
8. 8 L. Shenault · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +1.08 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.15 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Houston Texans — B. Cooks (D. Mills pass) (Q1 51:46)
• Houston Texans — T. Smith (Q1 46:42)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — J. Robinson (Q2 42:13)
• Houston Texans — B. Cooks (D. Mills pass) (Q4 2:32)

Field goals

• Jacksonville Jaguars — M. Wright (Q1 46:47)
• Houston Texans — K. Fairbairn (Q2 33:11)
• Houston Texans — K. Fairbairn (Q2 30:03)
• Houston Texans — K. Fairbairn (Q3 25:44)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — M. Wright (Q3 19:52)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — M. Wright (Q4 11:22)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Houston Texans won the period 14–3. Houston Texans found the end zone from the JAX 22 (Q1 51:46) — (6:46) 10-D.Mills pass short middle to 13-B.Cooks for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Houston Texans added 1 points from the JAX 15 (Q1 51:39) — 7-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.; Jacksonville Jaguars connected on a field goal from the HOU 4 (Q1 46:47) — (1:47) 15-M.Wright 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.; Houston Texans found the end zone from the JAX 35 (Q1 46:42); Houston Texans added 1 points from the JAX 15 (Q1 46:26) — 7-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston..

The second quarter: Jacksonville Jaguars won the period 7–6. Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the HOU 1 (Q2 42:13) — (12:13) 25-J.Robinson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the HOU 15 (Q2 42:09) — 15-M.Wright extra point is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.; Houston Texans connected on a field goal from the JAX 34 (Q2 33:11) — (3:11) 7-K.Fairbairn 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.; Houston Texans connected on a field goal from the JAX 33 (Q2 30:03) — (:03) 7-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston..

The third quarter: The quarter finished even at 3–3. Houston Texans connected on a field goal from the JAX 7 (Q3 25:44) — (10:44) 7-K.Fairbairn 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.; Jacksonville Jaguars connected on a field goal from the HOU 20 (Q3 19:52) — (4:52) 15-M.Wright 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke..

The fourth quarter: Houston Texans won the period 7–3. Jacksonville Jaguars connected on a field goal from the HOU 17 (Q4 11:22) — (11:22) 15-M.Wright 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.; Houston Texans found the end zone from the JAX 43 (Q4 2:32) — (2:32) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short left to 13-B.Cooks for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Houston Texans added 1 points from the JAX 15 (Q4 2:22) — 7-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Houston Texans (Q1 46:42) — 15-M.Wright kicks 63 yards from JAX 35 to HOU 2. 24-T.Smith for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX-2-R.Jenkins was injured during the play. He is Out. [WPA +16.5% · EPA +5.78]
• Houston Texans (Q4 13:30) — (13:30) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short left intended for 88-J.Akins INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Campbell at HOU 25. 32-T.Campbell to HOU 22 for 3 yards (88-J.Akins). [WPA -16.5% · EPA -3.55]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q2 30:29) — (:29) (No Huddle) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle to HOU 38 for no gain (43-N.Hewitt; 92-C.Smith). [WPA -8.1% · EPA -1.63]
• Houston Texans (Q1 51:46) — (6:46) 10-D.Mills pass short middle to 13-B.Cooks for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +6.7% · EPA +2.91]
• Houston Texans (Q4 2:32) — (2:32) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short left to 13-B.Cooks for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +6.7% · EPA +6.57]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Houston Texans (Q4 2:32) — (2:32) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short left to 13-B.Cooks for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +6.7% · EPA +6.57]
• Houston Texans (Q1 46:42) — 15-M.Wright kicks 63 yards from JAX 35 to HOU 2. 24-T.Smith for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX-2-R.Jenkins was injured during the play. He is Out. [WPA +16.5% · EPA +5.78]
• Houston Texans (Q4 13:30) — (13:30) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short left intended for 88-J.Akins INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Campbell at HOU 25. 32-T.Campbell to HOU 22 for 3 yards (88-J.Akins). [WPA -16.5% · EPA -3.55]
• Houston Texans (Q3 27:14) — (12:14) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep left to 2-P.Dorsett to JAX 11 for 33 yards (26-S.Griffin). [WPA +5.8% · EPA +3.43]

Quarterback report card

T.Lawrence led all passers in efficiency for Jacksonville Jaguars, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• T.Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars) · 44 dropbacks · 50.0% completion · -7.8% CPOE · -0.14 EPA/play · -6.37 total EPA
• D.Mills (Houston Texans) · 31 dropbacks · 61.3% completion · -2.2% CPOE · +0.11 EPA/play · +3.50 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Houston Texans generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.10 vs -0.10), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Houston Texans: 11 drives, +8.04 total EPA, 6 scoring drives
• Jacksonville Jaguars: 11 drives, -8.53 total EPA, 4 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Houston Texans leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• B. Cooks (Houston Texans) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• T. Lawrence (JAX) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Houston Texans TD (+6) — Q1 51:46 · JAX 22 · Score 6-0
   (6:46) 10-D.Mills pass short middle to 13-B.Cooks for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Houston Texans XP (+1) — Q1 51:39 · JAX 15 · Score 7-0
   7-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars FG (+3) — Q1 46:47 · HOU 4 · Score 7-3
   (1:47) 15-M.Wright 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
4. Houston Texans TD (+6) — Q1 46:42 · JAX 35 · Score 13-3
   15-M.Wright kicks 63 yards from JAX 35 to HOU 2. 24-T.Smith for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX-2-R.Jenkins was injured during the play. He is Out.
5. Houston Texans XP (+1) — Q1 46:26 · JAX 15 · Score 14-3
   7-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
6. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q2 42:13 · HOU 1 · Score 14-9
   (12:13) 25-J.Robinson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q2 42:09 · HOU 15 · Score 14-10
   15-M.Wright extra point is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
8. Houston Texans FG (+3) — Q2 33:11 · JAX 34 · Score 17-10
   (3:11) 7-K.Fairbairn 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
9. Houston Texans FG (+3) — Q2 30:03 · JAX 33 · Score 20-10
   (:03) 7-K.Fairbairn 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
10. Houston Texans FG (+3) — Q3 25:44 · JAX 7 · Score 23-10
    (10:44) 7-K.Fairbairn 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
11. Jacksonville Jaguars FG (+3) — Q3 19:52 · HOU 20 · Score 23-13
    (4:52) 15-M.Wright 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
12. Jacksonville Jaguars FG (+3) — Q4 11:22 · HOU 17 · Score 23-16
    (11:22) 15-M.Wright 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
13. Houston Texans TD (+6) — Q4 2:32 · JAX 43 · Score 29-16
    (2:32) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short left to 13-B.Cooks for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14. Houston Texans XP (+1) — Q4 2:22 · JAX 15 · Score 30-16
    7-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.