Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: 2016 Week 10 Recap

Game story

In Week 10 of the 2016 NFL season on 2016-11-13, the Houston Texans took care of business against the Jacksonville Jaguars, pulling away with a 24–21 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q1 with 21 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

B. Bortles (Jacksonville Jaguars) paced the passing game, with +6.77 total EPA, and +0.5% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, A. Robinson (Jacksonville Jaguars) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +9.48 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-21.8% win probability) landed in the opening quarter when Jacksonville Jaguars changed the game: (12:07) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left intended for 88-A.Hurns INTERCEPTED by 25-K.Jackson at JAX 42. 25-K.Jackson for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 A. Robinson · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +9.48 total EPA · 14 snaps · +0.68 EPA/play
2. 2 B. Bortles · Jacksonville Jaguars · Passing · +6.77 total EPA · 55 snaps · +0.12 EPA/play
3. 3 M. Lee · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +4.51 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.75 EPA/play
4. 4 T. Yeldon · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +2.30 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.77 EPA/play
5. 5 A. Hunt · Houston Texans · Rushing · +2.28 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.28 EPA/play
6. 6 B. Koyack · Jacksonville Jaguars · Receiving · +2.16 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.72 EPA/play
7. 7 S. Anderson · Houston Texans · Receiving · +1.57 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.57 EPA/play
8. 8 L. Miller · Houston Texans · Rushing · +1.35 total EPA · 15 snaps · +0.09 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Houston Texans — K. Jackson (Q1 57:07)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — J. Thomas (B. Bortles pass) (Q1 50:20)
• Houston Texans — R. Griffin (B. Osweiler pass) (Q1 45:24)
• Houston Texans — S. Anderson (B. Osweiler pass) (Q3 19:12)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — A. Robinson (B. Bortles pass) (Q4 2:25)

Field goals

• Jacksonville Jaguars — J. Myers (Q2 35:21)
• Jacksonville Jaguars — J. Myers (Q4 15:00)
• Houston Texans — N. Novak (Q4 8:38)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Houston Texans won the period 14–7. Houston Texans found the end zone from the HOU 60 (Q1 57:07); Houston Texans added 1 points from the JAX 15 (Q1 56:57) — 8-N.Novak extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the HOU 5 (Q1 50:20) — (5:20) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 80-J.Thomas for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Jacksonville Jaguars added 1 points from the HOU 15 (Q1 50:14) — 2-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.; Houston Texans found the end zone from the JAX 1 (Q1 45:24) — (:24) 17-B.Osweiler pass short right to 84-R.Griffin for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Houston Texans added 1 points from the JAX 15 (Q1 45:19) — 8-N.Novak extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler..

The second quarter: Jacksonville Jaguars won the period 3–0. Jacksonville Jaguars connected on a field goal from the HOU 36 (Q2 35:21) — (5:21) 2-J.Myers 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman..

The third quarter: Houston Texans won the period 7–0. Houston Texans found the end zone from the JAX 7 (Q3 19:12) — (4:12) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass short right to 89-S.Anderson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Houston Texans added 1 points from the JAX 15 (Q3 19:07) — 8-N.Novak extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler..

The fourth quarter: Jacksonville Jaguars won the period 11–3. Jacksonville Jaguars connected on a field goal from the HOU 26 (Q4 15:00) — (15:00) 2-J.Myers 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.; Houston Texans connected on a field goal from the JAX 33 (Q4 8:38) — (8:38) 8-N.Novak 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.; Jacksonville Jaguars found the end zone from the HOU 14 (Q4 2:25) — (2:25) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left to 15-A.Robinson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN [51-J.Simon].; Jacksonville Jaguars registered a safety from the HOU 2 (Q4 2:17) — (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 5-B.Bortles pass to 15-A.Robinson is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q1 57:07) — (12:07) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left intended for 88-A.Hurns INTERCEPTED by 25-K.Jackson at JAX 42. 25-K.Jackson for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -21.8% · EPA -8.25]
• Houston Texans (Q1 46:49) — (1:49) 26-L.Miller right guard to JAX 1 for 45 yards (44-M.Jack). [WPA +15.0% · EPA +4.07]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q2 41:55) — (11:55) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles FUMBLES (Aborted) at JAX 48, RECOVERED by HOU-59-W.Mercilus at HOU 49. 59-W.Mercilus to JAX 49 for 2 yards (5-B.Bortles). [WPA -11.6% · EPA -5.07]
• Houston Texans (Q4 2:00) — (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass short left to 10-D.Hopkins to HOU 23 for 10 yards (20-J.Ramsey). [WPA +10.7% · EPA +1.15]
• Houston Texans (Q2 32:22) — (2:22) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins to JAX 49 for 16 yards (20-J.Ramsey). Penalty on JAX-20-J.Ramsey, Defensive Holding, declined. [WPA +9.9% · EPA +1.80]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q1 57:07) — (12:07) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left intended for 88-A.Hurns INTERCEPTED by 25-K.Jackson at JAX 42. 25-K.Jackson for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -21.8% · EPA -8.25]
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Q2 41:55) — (11:55) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles FUMBLES (Aborted) at JAX 48, RECOVERED by HOU-59-W.Mercilus at HOU 49. 59-W.Mercilus to JAX 49 for 2 yards (5-B.Bortles). [WPA -11.6% · EPA -5.07]
• Houston Texans (Q1 46:49) — (1:49) 26-L.Miller right guard to JAX 1 for 45 yards (44-M.Jack). [WPA +15.0% · EPA +4.07]
• Houston Texans (Q2 39:05) — (9:05) 8-N.Novak 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. [WPA -5.1% · EPA -3.82]

Quarterback report card

B.Bortles led all passers in efficiency for Jacksonville Jaguars, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• B.Bortles (Jacksonville Jaguars) · 55 dropbacks · 58.2% completion · +0.5% CPOE · +0.12 EPA/play · +6.77 total EPA
• B.Osweiler (Houston Texans) · 33 dropbacks · 42.4% completion · -11.2% CPOE · -0.02 EPA/play · -0.70 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Houston Texans -0.07, Jacksonville Jaguars -0.10) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Houston Texans: 11 drives, -5.59 total EPA, 3 scoring drives
• Jacksonville Jaguars: 10 drives, -8.68 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Houston Texans leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• A. Robinson (Jacksonville Jaguars) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• B. Osweiler (HOU) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Houston Texans TD (+6) — Q1 57:07 · HOU 60 · Score 6-0
   (12:07) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left intended for 88-A.Hurns INTERCEPTED by 25-K.Jackson at JAX 42. 25-K.Jackson for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Houston Texans XP (+1) — Q1 56:57 · JAX 15 · Score 7-0
   8-N.Novak extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q1 50:20 · HOU 5 · Score 7-6
   (5:20) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 80-J.Thomas for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars XP (+1) — Q1 50:14 · HOU 15 · Score 7-7
   2-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.
5. Houston Texans TD (+6) — Q1 45:24 · JAX 1 · Score 13-7
   (:24) 17-B.Osweiler pass short right to 84-R.Griffin for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Houston Texans XP (+1) — Q1 45:19 · JAX 15 · Score 14-7
   8-N.Novak extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars FG (+3) — Q2 35:21 · HOU 36 · Score 14-10
   (5:21) 2-J.Myers 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.
8. Houston Texans TD (+6) — Q3 19:12 · JAX 7 · Score 20-10
   (4:12) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass short right to 89-S.Anderson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9. Houston Texans XP (+1) — Q3 19:07 · JAX 15 · Score 21-10
   8-N.Novak extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars FG (+3) — Q4 15:00 · HOU 26 · Score 21-13
    (15:00) 2-J.Myers 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.
11. Houston Texans FG (+3) — Q4 8:38 · JAX 33 · Score 24-13
    (8:38) 8-N.Novak 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.
12. Jacksonville Jaguars TD (+6) — Q4 2:25 · HOU 14 · Score 24-19
    (2:25) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left to 15-A.Robinson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN [51-J.Simon].
13. Jacksonville Jaguars Safety (+2) — Q4 2:17 · HOU 2 · Score 24-21
    (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 5-B.Bortles pass to 15-A.Robinson is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.