Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts: 2016 Week 14 Recap

Game story

In Week 14 of the 2016 NFL season on 2016-12-11, the Houston Texans took care of business against the Indianapolis Colts, pulling away with a 22–17 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 13 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

A. Luck (Indianapolis Colts) paced the passing game, with -6.31 total EPA, and -10.4% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, T. Hilton (Indianapolis Colts) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +5.44 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-19.9% win probability) landed in the third quarter when Indianapolis Colts changed the game: (2:36) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck sacked at HOU 10 for -7 yards (90-J.Clowney). FUMBLES (90-J.Clowney) [90-J.Clowney], RECOVERED by HOU-59-W.Mercilus at HOU 14. 59-W.Mercilus to HOU 14 for no gain (76-J.Reit

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 T. Hilton · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +5.44 total EPA · 13 snaps · +0.42 EPA/play
2. 2 F. Gore · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +3.47 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.73 EPA/play
3. 3 A. Luck · Indianapolis Colts · Rushing · +2.91 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.45 EPA/play
4. 4 R. Griffin · Houston Texans · Receiving · +1.89 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.95 EPA/play
5. 5 A. Hunt · Houston Texans · Rushing · +1.79 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.79 EPA/play
6. 6 R. Turbin · Indianapolis Colts · Rushing · +1.63 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.41 EPA/play
7. 7 C. Rogers · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +1.54 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.77 EPA/play
8. 8 L. Miller · Houston Texans · Receiving · +1.39 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.39 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Houston Texans — L. Miller (Q2 32:29)
• Indianapolis Colts — F. Gore (A. Luck pass) (Q3 25:00)
• Indianapolis Colts — T. Hilton (A. Luck pass) (Q4 9:14)

Field goals

• Indianapolis Colts — A. Vinatieri (Q1 53:35)
• Houston Texans — N. Novak (Q1 49:04)
• Houston Texans — N. Novak (Q2 30:17)
• Houston Texans — N. Novak (Q3 27:49)
• Houston Texans — N. Novak (Q4 11:58)
• Houston Texans — N. Novak (Q4 2:51)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: The quarter finished even at 3–3. Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the HOU 14 (Q1 53:35) — (8:35) 4-A.Vinatieri 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.; Houston Texans connected on a field goal from the IND 3 (Q1 49:04) — (4:04) 8-N.Novak 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler..

The second quarter: Houston Texans won the period 10–0. Houston Texans found the end zone from the IND 2 (Q2 32:29) — (2:29) (Run formation) 63-K.Lamm reported in as eligible. 26-L.Miller up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Houston Texans added 1 points from the IND 15 (Q2 32:26) — 8-N.Novak extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.; Houston Texans connected on a field goal from the IND 33 (Q2 30:17) — (:17) 8-N.Novak 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler..

The third quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 7–3. Houston Texans connected on a field goal from the IND 6 (Q3 27:49) — (12:49) 8-N.Novak 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the HOU 18 (Q3 25:00) — (10:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 23-F.Gore for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND-75-J.Mewhort was injured during the play. He is Out.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the HOU 15 (Q3 24:53) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee..

The fourth quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 7–6. Houston Texans connected on a field goal from the IND 22 (Q4 11:58); Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the HOU 35 (Q4 9:14); Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the HOU 15 (Q4 9:06) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.; Houston Texans connected on a field goal from the IND 17 (Q4 2:51) — (2:51) 8-N.Novak 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Indianapolis Colts (Q3 17:36) — (2:36) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck sacked at HOU 10 for -7 yards (90-J.Clowney). FUMBLES (90-J.Clowney) [90-J.Clowney], RECOVERED by HOU-59-W.Mercilus at HOU 14. 59-W.Mercilus to HOU 14 for no gain (76-J.Reit [WPA -19.9% · EPA -4.89]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q1 51:11) — (6:11) (Run formation) 12-A.Luck pass short left intended for 83-D.Allen INTERCEPTED by 27-Q.Demps at IND 31. 27-Q.Demps to IND 16 for 15 yards (23-F.Gore). [WPA -18.6% · EPA -5.84]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 1:24) — (1:24) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass incomplete short right to 33-R.Turbin [75-V.Wilfork]. [WPA -18.4% · EPA -0.99]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 9:14) — (9:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep right to 13-T.Hilton for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on HOU-32-R.Nelson, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. [WPA +16.6% · EPA +3.46]
• Houston Texans (Q4 8:29) — (8:29) (Run formation) 26-L.Miller right tackle to HOU 49 for 20 yards (20-D.Butler). [WPA +13.6% · EPA +1.56]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Indianapolis Colts (Q3 29:11) — (14:11) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right intended for 84-J.Doyle INTERCEPTED by 29-A.Hal [90-J.Clowney] at IND 42. 29-A.Hal to IND 18 for 24 yards (33-R.Turbin). [WPA -10.3% · EPA -6.12]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q1 51:11) — (6:11) (Run formation) 12-A.Luck pass short left intended for 83-D.Allen INTERCEPTED by 27-Q.Demps at IND 31. 27-Q.Demps to IND 16 for 15 yards (23-F.Gore). [WPA -18.6% · EPA -5.84]
• Houston Texans (Q2 41:51) — (11:51) (Run formation) 63-K.Lamm reported in as eligible. 17-B.Osweiler pass short left intended for 87-C.Fiedorowicz INTERCEPTED by 56-A.Ayers at IND 29. 56-A.Ayers to HOU 46 for 25 yards (78-O.Abou [WPA -9.8% · EPA -5.82]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q3 17:36) — (2:36) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck sacked at HOU 10 for -7 yards (90-J.Clowney). FUMBLES (90-J.Clowney) [90-J.Clowney], RECOVERED by HOU-59-W.Mercilus at HOU 14. 59-W.Mercilus to HOU 14 for no gain (76-J.Reit [WPA -19.9% · EPA -4.89]

Quarterback report card

A.Luck led all passers in efficiency for Indianapolis Colts, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• A.Luck (Indianapolis Colts) · 50 dropbacks · 48.0% completion · -10.4% CPOE · -0.13 EPA/play · -6.31 total EPA
• B.Osweiler (Houston Texans) · 28 dropbacks · 50.0% completion · +0.4% CPOE · -0.06 EPA/play · -1.74 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Houston Texans generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.01 vs -0.11), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Houston Texans: 11 drives, +0.74 total EPA, 6 scoring drives
• Indianapolis Colts: 11 drives, -8.99 total EPA, 3 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Houston Texans leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• T. Hilton (Indianapolis Colts) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• A. Luck (IND) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q1 53:35 · HOU 14 · Score 0-3
   (8:35) 4-A.Vinatieri 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
2. Houston Texans FG (+3) — Q1 49:04 · IND 3 · Score 3-3
   (4:04) 8-N.Novak 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.
3. Houston Texans TD (+6) — Q2 32:29 · IND 2 · Score 9-3
   (2:29) (Run formation) 63-K.Lamm reported in as eligible. 26-L.Miller up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Houston Texans XP (+1) — Q2 32:26 · IND 15 · Score 10-3
   8-N.Novak extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.
5. Houston Texans FG (+3) — Q2 30:17 · IND 33 · Score 13-3
   (:17) 8-N.Novak 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.
6. Houston Texans FG (+3) — Q3 27:49 · IND 6 · Score 16-3
   (12:49) 8-N.Novak 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.
7. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q3 25:00 · HOU 18 · Score 16-9
   (10:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 23-F.Gore for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND-75-J.Mewhort was injured during the play. He is Out.
8. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q3 24:53 · HOU 15 · Score 16-10
   4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
9. Houston Texans FG (+3) — Q4 11:58 · IND 22 · Score 19-10
   (11:58) 8-N.Novak 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. Penalty on IND-32-T.Green, Running Into the Kicker, declined.
10. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q4 9:14 · HOU 35 · Score 19-16
    (9:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep right to 13-T.Hilton for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on HOU-32-R.Nelson, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
11. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q4 9:06 · HOU 15 · Score 19-17
    4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
12. Houston Texans FG (+3) — Q4 2:51 · IND 17 · Score 22-17
    (2:51) 8-N.Novak 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.