Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts: 2011 Week 16 Recap

Game story

In Week 16 of the 2011 NFL season on 2011-12-22, the Indianapolis Colts took care of business against the Houston Texans, pulling away with a 19–16 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q1 with 13 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

D. Orlovsky (Indianapolis Colts) paced the passing game, with +4.96 total EPA, and -0.9% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, D. Orlovsky (Indianapolis Colts) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +4.96 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+24.8% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Indianapolis Colts changed the game: (1:06) (Shotgun) 6-D.Orlovsky pass deep left to 87-R.Wayne to HOU 20 for 34 yards (25-K.Jackson).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 D. Orlovsky · Indianapolis Colts · Passing · +4.96 total EPA · 48 snaps · +0.10 EPA/play
2. 2 R. Wayne · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +3.87 total EPA · 14 snaps · +0.28 EPA/play
3. 3 J. Jones · Houston Texans · Receiving · +2.65 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.33 EPA/play
4. 4 A. Foster · Houston Texans · Rushing · +2.61 total EPA · 24 snaps · +0.11 EPA/play
5. 5 K. Walter · Houston Texans · Receiving · +2.23 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.74 EPA/play
6. 6 A. Collie · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +1.64 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.27 EPA/play
7. 7 J. Jones · Houston Texans · Rushing · +0.94 total EPA · 1 snaps · +0.94 EPA/play
8. 8 J. Addai · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +0.76 total EPA · 1 snaps · +0.76 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Houston Texans — A. Foster (Q1 59:11)
• Indianapolis Colts — R. Wayne (D. Orlovsky pass) (Q4 0:24)

Field goals

• Indianapolis Colts — A. Vinatieri (Q1 49:43)
• Houston Texans — N. Rackers (Q1 47:06)
• Indianapolis Colts — A. Vinatieri (Q2 33:41)
• Houston Texans — N. Rackers (Q3 25:30)
• Indianapolis Colts — A. Vinatieri (Q3 15:59)
• Indianapolis Colts — A. Vinatieri (Q4 6:52)
• Houston Texans — N. Rackers (Q4 2:00)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Houston Texans won the period 10–3. Houston Texans found the end zone from the IND 9 (Q1 59:11) — (14:11) (Run formation) 23-A.Foster left end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Houston Texans added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q1 59:06) — 4-N.Rackers extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-1-M.Turk.; Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the HOU 5 (Q1 49:43) — (4:43) 4-A.Vinatieri 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee.; Houston Texans connected on a field goal from the IND 26 (Q1 47:06) — (2:06) 4-N.Rackers 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-1-M.Turk..

The second quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 3–0. Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the HOU 14 (Q2 33:41) — (3:41) 4-A.Vinatieri 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee..

The third quarter: The quarter finished even at 3–3. Houston Texans connected on a field goal from the IND 17 (Q3 25:30) — (10:30) 4-N.Rackers 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-1-M.Turk.; Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the HOU 29 (Q3 15:59) — (:59) 4-A.Vinatieri 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee..

The fourth quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 10–3. Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the HOU 13 (Q4 6:52) — (6:52) 4-A.Vinatieri 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee.; Houston Texans connected on a field goal from the IND 13 (Q4 2:00) — (2:00) 4-N.Rackers 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-1-M.Turk.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the HOU 1 (Q4 0:24) — (:24) (Shotgun) 6-D.Orlovsky pass short left to 87-R.Wayne for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the HOU 2 (Q4 0:19) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 1:06) — (1:06) (Shotgun) 6-D.Orlovsky pass deep left to 87-R.Wayne to HOU 20 for 34 yards (25-K.Jackson). [WPA +24.8% · EPA +2.87]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 0:24) — (:24) (Shotgun) 6-D.Orlovsky pass short left to 87-R.Wayne for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +22.5% · EPA +1.18]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 0:27) — (:27) (Shotgun) 6-D.Orlovsky pass incomplete short left to 84-J.Tamme. PENALTY on HOU-29-G.Quin, Defensive Pass Interference, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 6 - No Play. [WPA +15.3% · EPA +2.07]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 10:25) — (10:25) 6-D.Orlovsky pass deep left to 87-R.Wayne ran ob at HOU 28 for 17 yards. [WPA +12.8% · EPA +1.50]
• Houston Texans (Q4 0:07) — (:07) (Shotgun) 13-T.Yates pass incomplete deep right to 89-B.Johnson. [WPA -10.2% · EPA -0.06]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Indianapolis Colts (Q1 60:00) — (15:00) 6-D.Orlovsky sacked at IND 14 for -6 yards (56-B.Cushing). FUMBLES (56-B.Cushing) [56-B.Cushing], touched at IND 16, RECOVERED by HOU-58-B.Reed at IND 17. 58-B.Reed to IND 17 for no gain (76-J [WPA -9.1% · EPA -5.62]
• Houston Texans (Q1 57:34) — (12:34) (Run formation) 13-T.Yates sacked at HOU 36 for -7 yards (98-R.Mathis). FUMBLES (98-R.Mathis), RECOVERED by IND-98-R.Mathis at HOU 36. 98-R.Mathis to HOU 36 for no gain (73-E.Winston). [WPA -4.2% · EPA -5.32]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q1 56:13) — (11:13) (Shotgun) 6-D.Orlovsky sacked at HOU 39 for -7 yards (98-C.Barwin). [WPA -6.8% · EPA -2.90]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 1:06) — (1:06) (Shotgun) 6-D.Orlovsky pass deep left to 87-R.Wayne to HOU 20 for 34 yards (25-K.Jackson). [WPA +24.8% · EPA +2.87]

Quarterback report card

D.Orlovsky led all passers in efficiency for Indianapolis Colts, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• D.Orlovsky (Indianapolis Colts) · 48 dropbacks · 47.9% completion · -0.9% CPOE · +0.10 EPA/play · +4.96 total EPA
• T.Yates (Houston Texans) · 21 dropbacks · 61.9% completion · +11.4% CPOE · -0.26 EPA/play · -5.37 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Houston Texans -0.09, Indianapolis Colts -0.06) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Houston Texans: 13 drives, -6.31 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• Indianapolis Colts: 12 drives, -5.72 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Indianapolis Colts leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• D. Orlovsky (Indianapolis Colts) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• T. Yates (HOU) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Houston Texans TD (+6) — Q1 59:11 · IND 9 · Score 6-0
   (14:11) (Run formation) 23-A.Foster left end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Houston Texans XP (+1) — Q1 59:06 · IND 2 · Score 7-0
   4-N.Rackers extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-1-M.Turk.
3. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q1 49:43 · HOU 5 · Score 7-3
   (4:43) 4-A.Vinatieri 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
4. Houston Texans FG (+3) — Q1 47:06 · IND 26 · Score 10-3
   (2:06) 4-N.Rackers 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-1-M.Turk.
5. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q2 33:41 · HOU 14 · Score 10-6
   (3:41) 4-A.Vinatieri 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
6. Houston Texans FG (+3) — Q3 25:30 · IND 17 · Score 13-6
   (10:30) 4-N.Rackers 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-1-M.Turk.
7. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q3 15:59 · HOU 29 · Score 13-9
   (:59) 4-A.Vinatieri 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
8. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q4 6:52 · HOU 13 · Score 13-12
   (6:52) 4-A.Vinatieri 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
9. Houston Texans FG (+3) — Q4 2:00 · IND 13 · Score 16-12
   (2:00) 4-N.Rackers 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-1-M.Turk.
10. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q4 0:24 · HOU 1 · Score 16-18
    (:24) (Shotgun) 6-D.Orlovsky pass short left to 87-R.Wayne for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
11. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q4 0:19 · HOU 2 · Score 16-19
    4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee.