Houston Texans vs. Atlanta Falcons: 2015 Week 4 Recap

Game story

In Week 4 of the 2015 NFL season on 2015-10-04, the Atlanta Falcons took care of business against the Houston Texans, pulling away with a 48–21 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 27 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

M. Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) paced the passing game, with +12.44 total EPA, and -4.0% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, M. Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +12.44 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-8.9% win probability) landed in the opening quarter when Houston Texans changed the game: (12:08) (Shotgun) 15-R.Mallett pass short middle intended for 10-D.Hopkins INTERCEPTED by 95-J.Babineaux at ATL 47. 95-J.Babineaux to ATL 46 for -1 yards (10-D.Hopkins).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 M. Ryan · Atlanta Falcons · Passing · +12.44 total EPA · 33 snaps · +0.38 EPA/play
2. 2 L. Hankerson · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +8.16 total EPA · 8 snaps · +1.02 EPA/play
3. 3 B. Hoyer · Houston Texans · Passing · +6.43 total EPA · 31 snaps · +0.21 EPA/play
4. 4 K. Mumphery · Houston Texans · Receiving · +4.93 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.70 EPA/play
5. 5 D. Freeman · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +4.86 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.81 EPA/play
6. 6 C. Polk · Houston Texans · Rushing · +2.60 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.87 EPA/play
7. 7 D. Freeman · Atlanta Falcons · Rushing · +2.54 total EPA · 15 snaps · +0.17 EPA/play
8. 8 T. Ward · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +1.51 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.51 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Atlanta Falcons — D. Freeman (Q1 53:38)
• Atlanta Falcons — D. Freeman (Q2 44:45)
• Atlanta Falcons — A. Foster (Q2 42:34)
• Atlanta Falcons — L. Hankerson (M. Ryan pass) (Q2 33:15)
• Atlanta Falcons — D. Freeman (Q3 25:55)
• Atlanta Falcons — T. Ward (Q3 18:02)
• Houston Texans — C. Fiedorowicz (B. Hoyer pass) (Q4 14:28)
• Houston Texans — C. Polk (Q4 9:14)
• Houston Texans — C. Shorts (B. Hoyer pass) (Q4 3:08)
• Atlanta Falcons — C. Shorts (B. Hoyer pass) (Q4 0:01)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Atlanta Falcons won the period 7–0. Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the HOU 16 (Q1 53:38) — (8:38) (Shotgun) 24-D.Freeman right tackle for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the HOU 15 (Q1 53:32) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher..

The second quarter: Atlanta Falcons won the period 21–0. Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the HOU 23 (Q2 44:45) — (14:45) (Shotgun) 24-D.Freeman left guard for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the HOU 15 (Q2 44:39) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the ATL 69 (Q2 42:34); Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the HOU 15 (Q2 42:24) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the HOU 3 (Q2 33:15) — (3:15) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 85-L.Hankerson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the HOU 15 (Q2 33:11) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher..

The third quarter: Atlanta Falcons won the period 14–0. Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the HOU 6 (Q3 25:55) — (10:55) 24-D.Freeman right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the HOU 15 (Q3 25:50) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the HOU 8 (Q3 18:02) — (3:02) (Shotgun) 33-T.Ward left guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the HOU 15 (Q3 17:56) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher..

The fourth quarter: Houston Texans won the period 21–6. Houston Texans found the end zone from the ATL 5 (Q4 14:28) — (14:28) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hoyer pass short right to 87-C.Fiedorowicz for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Houston Texans added 1 points from the ATL 15 (Q4 14:22) — 8-N.Novak extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.; Houston Texans found the end zone from the ATL 1 (Q4 9:14) — (9:14) 22-C.Polk right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Houston Texans added 1 points from the ATL 15 (Q4 9:09) — 8-N.Novak extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.; Houston Texans found the end zone from the ATL 8 (Q4 3:08) — (3:08) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hoyer pass short middle to 18-C.Shorts for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Houston Texans added 1 points from the ATL 15 (Q4 3:01) — 8-N.Novak extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the ATL 17 (Q4 0:01).

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Houston Texans (Q1 57:08) — (12:08) (Shotgun) 15-R.Mallett pass short middle intended for 10-D.Hopkins INTERCEPTED by 95-J.Babineaux at ATL 47. 95-J.Babineaux to ATL 46 for -1 yards (10-D.Hopkins). [WPA -8.9% · EPA -4.44]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q1 54:29) — (9:29) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 24-D.Freeman to HOU 16 for 24 yards (24-J.Joseph). [WPA +8.3% · EPA +2.45]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q1 55:24) — (10:24) 24-D.Freeman right end to HOU 44 for 1 yard (75-V.Wilfork). [WPA +7.5% · EPA +1.89]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q1 48:34) — (3:34) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete deep left to 85-L.Hankerson. PENALTY on HOU-30-K.Johnson, Illegal Contact, 6 yards, enforced at ATL 27 - No Play. [WPA +6.9% · EPA +2.14]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q1 47:06) — (2:06) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 85-L.Hankerson pushed ob at ATL 48 for 16 yards (25-K.Jackson). [WPA +5.5% · EPA +2.39]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Houston Texans (Q4 0:01) — (:01) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hoyer pass short left to 18-C.Shorts to ATL 16 for 1 yard (53-A.Bradford). FUMBLES (53-A.Bradford), RECOVERED by ATL-54-N.Stupar at ATL 16. 54-N.Stupar for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU [WPA -0.1% · EPA -8.87]
• Houston Texans (Q2 42:34) — (12:34) (Shotgun) 23-A.Foster right end to HOU 27 for -4 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by ATL-21-D.Trufant at HOU 24. 21-D.Trufant for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -5.4% · EPA -7.78]
• Houston Texans (Q1 57:08) — (12:08) (Shotgun) 15-R.Mallett pass short middle intended for 10-D.Hopkins INTERCEPTED by 95-J.Babineaux at ATL 47. 95-J.Babineaux to ATL 46 for -1 yards (10-D.Hopkins). [WPA -8.9% · EPA -4.44]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q3 26:41) — (11:41) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 85-L.Hankerson to HOU 6 for 55 yards (21-D.Morris). [WPA +0.0% · EPA +4.21]

Quarterback report card

M.Ryan led all passers in efficiency for Atlanta Falcons, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• M.Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) · 33 dropbacks · 57.6% completion · -4.0% CPOE · +0.38 EPA/play · +12.44 total EPA
• B.Hoyer (Houston Texans) · 31 dropbacks · 54.8% completion · +3.3% CPOE · +0.21 EPA/play · +6.43 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Atlanta Falcons held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.08 vs -0.20), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Atlanta Falcons: 14 drives, +7.64 total EPA, 5 scoring drives
• Houston Texans: 13 drives, -18.91 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Atlanta Falcons leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• M. Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• M. Ryan (ATL) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.
• B. Hoyer (HOU) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q1 53:38 · HOU 16 · Score 0-6
   (8:38) (Shotgun) 24-D.Freeman right tackle for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q1 53:32 · HOU 15 · Score 0-7
   3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
3. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q2 44:45 · HOU 23 · Score 0-13
   (14:45) (Shotgun) 24-D.Freeman left guard for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q2 44:39 · HOU 15 · Score 0-14
   3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
5. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q2 42:34 · ATL 69 · Score 0-20
   (12:34) (Shotgun) 23-A.Foster right end to HOU 27 for -4 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by ATL-21-D.Trufant at HOU 24. 21-D.Trufant for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q2 42:24 · HOU 15 · Score 0-21
   3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
7. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q2 33:15 · HOU 3 · Score 0-27
   (3:15) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 85-L.Hankerson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q2 33:11 · HOU 15 · Score 0-28
   3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
9. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q3 25:55 · HOU 6 · Score 0-34
   (10:55) 24-D.Freeman right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q3 25:50 · HOU 15 · Score 0-35
    3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
11. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q3 18:02 · HOU 8 · Score 0-41
    (3:02) (Shotgun) 33-T.Ward left guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q3 17:56 · HOU 15 · Score 0-42
    3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
13. Houston Texans TD (+6) — Q4 14:28 · ATL 5 · Score 6-42
    (14:28) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hoyer pass short right to 87-C.Fiedorowicz for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14. Houston Texans XP (+1) — Q4 14:22 · ATL 15 · Score 7-42
    8-N.Novak extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.
15. Houston Texans TD (+6) — Q4 9:14 · ATL 1 · Score 13-42
    (9:14) 22-C.Polk right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
16. Houston Texans XP (+1) — Q4 9:09 · ATL 15 · Score 14-42
    8-N.Novak extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.
17. Houston Texans TD (+6) — Q4 3:08 · ATL 8 · Score 20-42
    (3:08) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hoyer pass short middle to 18-C.Shorts for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
18. Houston Texans XP (+1) — Q4 3:01 · ATL 15 · Score 21-42
    8-N.Novak extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.
19. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q4 0:01 · ATL 17 · Score 21-48
    (:01) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hoyer pass short left to 18-C.Shorts to ATL 16 for 1 yard (53-A.Bradford). FUMBLES (53-A.Bradford), RECOVERED by ATL-54-N.Stupar at ATL 16.