Green Bay Packers vs. New York Jets: 2018 Week 16 Recap

Game story

In Week 16 of the 2018 NFL season on 2018-12-23, the Green Bay Packers took care of business against the New York Jets, pulling away with a 44–38 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 31 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

A. Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) paced the passing game, with +25.05 total EPA, and +4.0% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, A. Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +25.05 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+38.7% win probability) landed in overtime when Green Bay Packers changed the game: (7:54) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling [46-N.Hewitt]. PENALTY on NYJ-22-T.Johnson, Defensive Pass Interference, 33 yards, enforced at GB 40 - No Play.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 A. Rodgers · Green Bay Packers · Passing · +25.05 total EPA · 71 snaps · +0.35 EPA/play
2. 2 S. Darnold · New York Jets · Passing · +18.43 total EPA · 39 snaps · +0.47 EPA/play
3. 3 R. Anderson · New York Jets · Receiving · +9.69 total EPA · 13 snaps · +0.75 EPA/play
4. 4 E.St. Brown · Green Bay Packers · Receiving · +8.80 total EPA · 5 snaps · +1.76 EPA/play
5. 5 C. Herndon · New York Jets · Receiving · +7.57 total EPA · 7 snaps · +1.08 EPA/play
6. 6 J. Kumerow · Green Bay Packers · Receiving · +6.63 total EPA · 3 snaps · +2.21 EPA/play
7. 7 E. McGuire · New York Jets · Receiving · +4.12 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.82 EPA/play
8. 8 J. Kearse · New York Jets · Receiving · +4.06 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.02 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• New York Jets — E. McGuire (Q1 47:20)
• New York Jets — R. Anderson (S. Darnold pass) (Q2 39:09)
• Green Bay Packers — J. Kumerow (A. Rodgers pass) (Q2 35:14)
• New York Jets — A. Roberts (Q2 35:06)
• Green Bay Packers — J. Williams (Q2 31:39)
• New York Jets — C. Herndon (S. Darnold pass) (Q3 19:25)
• New York Jets — E. McGuire (S. Darnold pass) (Q3 17:58)
• Green Bay Packers — A. Rodgers (Q4 6:37)
• Green Bay Packers — A. Rodgers (Q4 1:16)
• Green Bay Packers — D. Adams (A. Rodgers pass) (OT 6:28)

Field goals

• Green Bay Packers — M. Crosby (Q2 30:06)
• Green Bay Packers — M. Crosby (Q3 23:20)
• Green Bay Packers — M. Crosby (Q4 11:49)
• New York Jets — J. Myers (Q4 0:21)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: New York Jets won the period 7–0. New York Jets found the end zone from the GB 4 (Q1 47:20) — (2:20) 25-E.McGuire left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New York Jets added 1 points from the GB 15 (Q1 47:15).

The second quarter: Green Bay Packers won the period 17–14. New York Jets found the end zone from the GB 33 (Q2 39:09) — (9:09) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 11-R.Anderson for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New York Jets added 1 points from the GB 15 (Q2 39:02) — 2-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.; Green Bay Packers found the end zone from the NYJ 49 (Q2 35:14) — (5:14) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 16-J.Kumerow for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Green Bay Packers added 1 points from the NYJ 15 (Q2 35:06) — 2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.; New York Jets found the end zone from the GB 35 (Q2 35:06) — 2-M.Crosby kicks 64 yards from GB 35 to NYJ 1. 19-A.Roberts for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New York Jets added 1 points from the GB 20 (Q2 34:54) — 2-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.; Green Bay Packers found the end zone from the NYJ 7 (Q2 31:39) — (1:39) 30-J.Williams left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Green Bay Packers added 1 points from the NYJ 15 (Q2 31:33) — 2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.; Green Bay Packers connected on a field goal from the NYJ 24 (Q2 30:06) — (:06) 2-M.Crosby 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott..

The third quarter: New York Jets won the period 14–3. Green Bay Packers connected on a field goal from the NYJ 11 (Q3 23:20) — (8:20) 2-M.Crosby 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.; New York Jets found the end zone from the GB 5 (Q3 19:25) — (4:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 89-C.Herndon for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New York Jets added 1 points from the GB 15 (Q3 19:21) — 2-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.; New York Jets found the end zone from the GB 20 (Q3 17:58) — (2:58) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 25-E.McGuire for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New York Jets added 1 points from the GB 15 (Q3 17:50) — 2-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards..

The fourth quarter: Green Bay Packers won the period 18–3. Green Bay Packers connected on a field goal from the NYJ 20 (Q4 11:49) — (11:49) 2-M.Crosby 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.; Green Bay Packers found the end zone from the NYJ 1 (Q4 6:37) — (6:37) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers scrambles right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Green Bay Packers added 1 points from the NYJ 15 (Q4 6:32) — 2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.; Green Bay Packers found the end zone from the NYJ 1 (Q4 1:16) — (1:16) 12-A.Rodgers up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Green Bay Packers registered a safety from the NYJ 1 (Q4 1:12) — TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 12-A.Rodgers rushes right guard. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.; New York Jets connected on a field goal from the GB 15 (Q4 0:21) — (:21) 2-J.Myers 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards..

Overtime: Green Bay Packers won the period 6–0. Green Bay Packers found the end zone from the NYJ 16 (OT 6:28) — (6:28) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 17-D.Adams for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Green Bay Packers (OT 7:54) — (7:54) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling [46-N.Hewitt]. PENALTY on NYJ-22-T.Johnson, Defensive Pass Interference, 33 yards, enforced at GB 40 - No Play. [WPA +38.7% · EPA +3.24]
• Green Bay Packers (Q4 1:55) — (1:55) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers scrambles left end to NYJ 1 for 23 yards (33-J.Adams). [WPA +19.4% · EPA +2.69]
• New York Jets (Q4 1:12) — 2-M.Crosby kicks 54 yards from GB 35 to NYJ 11. 19-A.Roberts pushed ob at GB 38 for 51 yards (54-J.Crawford). [WPA +17.3% · EPA +1.19]
• Green Bay Packers (Q4 2:25) — (2:25) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 30-J.Williams to NYJ 24 for 26 yards (51-B.Copeland). [WPA +16.5% · EPA +1.29]
• Green Bay Packers (Q4 1:16) — (1:16) 12-A.Rodgers up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +15.3% · EPA +2.43]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• New York Jets (Q2 35:06) — 2-M.Crosby kicks 64 yards from GB 35 to NYJ 1. 19-A.Roberts for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +10.7% · EPA +6.34]
• Green Bay Packers (Q3 19:21) — 2-J.Myers kicks 67 yards from NYJ 35 to GB -2. 82-J.Moore to GB 16 for 18 yards (52-A.Wint). FUMBLES (52-A.Wint), RECOVERED by NYJ-30-R.Robinson at GB 18. 30-R.Robinson to GB 18 for no gain (45-D.Vita [WPA -8.9% · EPA -5.88]
• Green Bay Packers (Q2 35:14) — (5:14) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 16-J.Kumerow for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +9.9% · EPA +5.06]
• Green Bay Packers (Q4 12:53) — (12:53) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling to NYJ 20 for 42 yards (54-A.Williamson; 21-M.Claiborne). [WPA +3.6% · EPA +4.30]

Quarterback report card

A.Rodgers led all passers in efficiency for Green Bay Packers, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• A.Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) · 71 dropbacks · 52.1% completion · +4.0% CPOE · +0.35 EPA/play · +25.05 total EPA
• S.Darnold (New York Jets) · 39 dropbacks · 61.5% completion · +10.1% CPOE · +0.47 EPA/play · +18.43 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Green Bay Packers +0.23, New York Jets +0.22) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Green Bay Packers: 13 drives, +25.74 total EPA, 8 scoring drives
• New York Jets: 13 drives, +18.45 total EPA, 6 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Green Bay Packers leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• A. Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• A. Rodgers (GB) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• S. Darnold (NYJ) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. New York Jets TD (+6) — Q1 47:20 · GB 4 · Score 0-6
   (2:20) 25-E.McGuire left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. New York Jets XP (+1) — Q1 47:15 · GB 15 · Score 0-7
   2-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. PENALTY on GB-28-T.Brown, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced between downs.
3. New York Jets TD (+6) — Q2 39:09 · GB 33 · Score 0-13
   (9:09) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 11-R.Anderson for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. New York Jets XP (+1) — Q2 39:02 · GB 15 · Score 0-14
   2-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.
5. Green Bay Packers TD (+6) — Q2 35:14 · NYJ 49 · Score 6-14
   (5:14) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 16-J.Kumerow for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Green Bay Packers XP (+1) — Q2 35:06 · NYJ 15 · Score 7-14
   2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.
7. New York Jets TD (+6) — Q2 35:06 · GB 35 · Score 7-20
   2-M.Crosby kicks 64 yards from GB 35 to NYJ 1. 19-A.Roberts for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8. New York Jets XP (+1) — Q2 34:54 · GB 20 · Score 7-21
   2-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.
9. Green Bay Packers TD (+6) — Q2 31:39 · NYJ 7 · Score 13-21
   (1:39) 30-J.Williams left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10. Green Bay Packers XP (+1) — Q2 31:33 · NYJ 15 · Score 14-21
    2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.
11. Green Bay Packers FG (+3) — Q2 30:06 · NYJ 24 · Score 17-21
    (:06) 2-M.Crosby 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.
12. Green Bay Packers FG (+3) — Q3 23:20 · NYJ 11 · Score 20-21
    (8:20) 2-M.Crosby 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.
13. New York Jets TD (+6) — Q3 19:25 · GB 5 · Score 20-27
    (4:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 89-C.Herndon for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14. New York Jets XP (+1) — Q3 19:21 · GB 15 · Score 20-28
    2-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.
15. New York Jets TD (+6) — Q3 17:58 · GB 20 · Score 20-34
    (2:58) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 25-E.McGuire for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16. New York Jets XP (+1) — Q3 17:50 · GB 15 · Score 20-35
    2-J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.
17. Green Bay Packers FG (+3) — Q4 11:49 · NYJ 20 · Score 23-35
    (11:49) 2-M.Crosby 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.
18. Green Bay Packers TD (+6) — Q4 6:37 · NYJ 1 · Score 29-35
    (6:37) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers scrambles right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
19. Green Bay Packers XP (+1) — Q4 6:32 · NYJ 15 · Score 30-35
    2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.
20. Green Bay Packers TD (+6) — Q4 1:16 · NYJ 1 · Score 36-35
    (1:16) 12-A.Rodgers up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
21. Green Bay Packers Safety (+2) — Q4 1:12 · NYJ 1 · Score 38-35
    TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 12-A.Rodgers rushes right guard. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
22. New York Jets FG (+3) — Q4 0:21 · GB 15 · Score 38-38
    (:21) 2-J.Myers 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.
23. Green Bay Packers TD (+6) — OT 6:28 · NYJ 16 · Score 44-38
    (6:28) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 17-D.Adams for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.