Green Bay Packers vs. Carolina Panthers: 2023 Week 16 Recap

Game story

In Week 16 of the 2023 NFL season on 2023-12-24, the Green Bay Packers took care of business against the Carolina Panthers, pulling away with a 33–30 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 27 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

B. Young (Carolina Panthers) paced the passing game, with +14.59 total EPA, and +9.5% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, J. Love (Green Bay Packers) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +14.82 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-30.6% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Carolina Panthers changed the game: (:01) (No Huddle) 9-B.Young spiked the ball to stop the clock.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 J. Love · Green Bay Packers · Passing · +14.82 total EPA · 33 snaps · +0.45 EPA/play
2. 2 B. Young · Carolina Panthers · Passing · +14.59 total EPA · 40 snaps · +0.36 EPA/play
3. 3 D. Chark · Carolina Panthers · Receiving · +10.57 total EPA · 8 snaps · +1.32 EPA/play
4. 4 R. Doubs · Green Bay Packers · Receiving · +7.65 total EPA · 5 snaps · +1.53 EPA/play
5. 5 A. Thielen · Carolina Panthers · Receiving · +5.70 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.71 EPA/play
6. 6 A. Jones · Green Bay Packers · Rushing · +4.84 total EPA · 21 snaps · +0.23 EPA/play
7. 7 D. Wicks · Green Bay Packers · Receiving · +4.06 total EPA · 2 snaps · +2.03 EPA/play
8. 8 T. Kraft · Green Bay Packers · Receiving · +3.73 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.62 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Green Bay Packers — A. Dillon (Q1 52:34)
• Green Bay Packers — J. Love (Q2 45:00)
• Carolina Panthers — I. Smith-Marsette (Q2 40:38)
• Green Bay Packers — D. Wicks (J. Love pass) (Q2 30:57)
• Carolina Panthers — C. Hubbard (Q3 20:14)
• Green Bay Packers — R. Doubs (J. Love pass) (Q4 15:00)
• Carolina Panthers — D. Chark (B. Young pass) (Q4 7:18)
• Carolina Panthers — D. Chark (B. Young pass) (Q4 4:12)

Field goals

• Carolina Panthers — E. Pineiro (Q1 50:29)
• Green Bay Packers — A. Carlson (Q2 37:56)
• Green Bay Packers — A. Carlson (Q4 0:22)
• Green Bay Packers — A. Carlson (Q4 0:19)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Green Bay Packers won the period 7–3. Green Bay Packers found the end zone from the CAR 1 (Q1 52:34) — (7:34) 70-R.Newman reported in as eligible. 28-A.Dillon up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Green Bay Packers added 1 points from the CAR 15 (Q1 52:30) — 17-A.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.; Carolina Panthers connected on a field goal from the GB 34 (Q1 50:29).

The second quarter: Green Bay Packers won the period 16–7. Green Bay Packers found the end zone from the CAR 1 (Q2 45:00) — (15:00) 10-J.Love up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the GB 20 (Q2 40:38) — (10:38) 11-I.Smith-Marsette right end for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Carolina Panthers added 1 points from the GB 15 (Q2 40:29) — 4-E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.; Green Bay Packers connected on a field goal from the CAR 35 (Q2 37:56) — (7:56) 17-A.Carlson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.; Green Bay Packers found the end zone from the CAR 21 (Q2 30:57) — (:57) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 13-D.Wicks for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Green Bay Packers added 1 points from the CAR 15 (Q2 30:49) — 17-A.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan..

The third quarter: Carolina Panthers won the period 6–0. Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the GB 4 (Q3 20:14) — (5:14) 30-C.Hubbard left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN..

The fourth quarter: Carolina Panthers won the period 14–13. Green Bay Packers found the end zone from the CAR 5 (Q4 15:00) — (15:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 87-R.Doubs for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Green Bay Packers added 1 points from the CAR 15 (Q4 14:57) — 17-A.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.; Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the GB 11 (Q4 7:18) — (7:18) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 17-D.Chark for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-D.Wyatt].; Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the GB 10 (Q4 4:12) — (4:12) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 17-D.Chark for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Carolina Panthers registered a safety from the GB 2 (Q4 4:05) — TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 3-R.Blackshear rushes left end. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.; Green Bay Packers connected on a field goal from the CAR 14 (Q4 0:22) — (:22) 17-A.Carlson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.; Green Bay Packers connected on a field goal from the GB 35 (Q4 0:19) — 17-A.Carlson kicks 65 yards from GB 35 to end zone, Touchback..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Carolina Panthers (Q4 0:01) — (:01) (No Huddle) 9-B.Young spiked the ball to stop the clock. [WPA -30.6% · EPA -1.35]
• Green Bay Packers (Q4 2:39) — (2:39) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 87-R.Doubs to CAR 33 for 36 yards (13-T.Hill). Carolina challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Ti [WPA +25.0% · EPA +2.52]
• Green Bay Packers (Q4 0:22) — (:22) 17-A.Carlson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. [WPA +16.9% · EPA +0.18]
• Carolina Panthers (Q4 0:13) — (:13) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep middle to 19-A.Thielen to GB 31 for 22 yards (25-K.Nixon). [WPA +13.6% · EPA +0.91]
• Carolina Panthers (Q4 4:05) — TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 3-R.Blackshear rushes left end. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. [WPA +13.4% · EPA +1.05]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Green Bay Packers (Q2 30:57) — (:57) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 13-D.Wicks for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +2.6% · EPA +3.97]
• Carolina Panthers (Q1 58:25) — (13:25) 10-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to GB 28, Center-44-J.Jansen. 25-K.Nixon to GB 48 for 20 yards (21-J.Chinn; 42-S.Franklin). CAR-90-A.Barno was injured during the play. PENALTY on GB-90-L.Van Ness, [WPA +9.6% · EPA +3.95]
• Carolina Panthers (Q4 7:30) — (7:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 17-D.Chark to GB 24 for 16 yards (23-J.Alexander). FUMBLES (23-J.Alexander), recovered by CAR-82-T.Tremble at GB 23. PENALTY on GB-95-D.Wyatt, [WPA +3.1% · EPA +3.29]
• Carolina Panthers (Q2 34:15) — (4:15) 30-C.Hubbard left guard to GB 40 for -2 yards (58-I.McDuffie, 90-L.Van Ness). [WPA -9.7% · EPA -2.87]

Quarterback report card

B.Young led all passers in efficiency for Carolina Panthers, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• B.Young (Carolina Panthers) · 40 dropbacks · 57.5% completion · +9.5% CPOE · +0.36 EPA/play · +14.59 total EPA
• J.Love (Green Bay Packers) · 33 dropbacks · 51.5% completion · -0.4% CPOE · +0.45 EPA/play · +14.82 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Green Bay Packers generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.25 vs +0.19), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Carolina Panthers: 10 drives, +15.92 total EPA, 5 scoring drives
• Green Bay Packers: 10 drives, +20.65 total EPA, 6 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Green Bay Packers leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• J. Love (Green Bay Packers) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• B. Young (CAR) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Green Bay Packers TD (+6) — Q1 52:34 · CAR 1 · Score 6-0
   (7:34) 70-R.Newman reported in as eligible. 28-A.Dillon up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Green Bay Packers XP (+1) — Q1 52:30 · CAR 15 · Score 7-0
   17-A.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
3. Carolina Panthers FG (+3) — Q1 50:29 · GB 34 · Score 7-3
   (5:29) 4-E.Pineiro 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. Penalty on GB-95-D.Wyatt, Defensive Offside, declined.
4. Green Bay Packers TD (+6) — Q2 45:00 · CAR 1 · Score 13-3
   (15:00) 10-J.Love up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
5. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q2 40:38 · GB 20 · Score 13-9
   (10:38) 11-I.Smith-Marsette right end for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Carolina Panthers XP (+1) — Q2 40:29 · GB 15 · Score 13-10
   4-E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
7. Green Bay Packers FG (+3) — Q2 37:56 · CAR 35 · Score 16-10
   (7:56) 17-A.Carlson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
8. Green Bay Packers TD (+6) — Q2 30:57 · CAR 21 · Score 22-10
   (:57) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 13-D.Wicks for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9. Green Bay Packers XP (+1) — Q2 30:49 · CAR 15 · Score 23-10
   17-A.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
10. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q3 20:14 · GB 4 · Score 23-16
    (5:14) 30-C.Hubbard left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11. Green Bay Packers TD (+6) — Q4 15:00 · CAR 5 · Score 29-16
    (15:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 87-R.Doubs for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12. Green Bay Packers XP (+1) — Q4 14:57 · CAR 15 · Score 30-16
    17-A.Carlson extra point is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
13. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q4 7:18 · GB 11 · Score 30-22
    (7:18) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 17-D.Chark for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-D.Wyatt].
14. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q4 4:12 · GB 10 · Score 30-28
    (4:12) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 17-D.Chark for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15. Carolina Panthers Safety (+2) — Q4 4:05 · GB 2 · Score 30-30
    TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 3-R.Blackshear rushes left end. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
16. Green Bay Packers FG (+3) — Q4 0:22 · CAR 14 · Score 33-30
    (:22) 17-A.Carlson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
17. Green Bay Packers FG (+3) — Q4 0:19 · GB 35 · Score 33-30
    17-A.Carlson kicks 65 yards from GB 35 to end zone, Touchback.