Green Bay Packers vs. Atlanta Falcons: 2016 Week 8 Recap

Game story

In Week 8 of the 2016 NFL season on 2016-10-30, the Atlanta Falcons took care of business against the Green Bay Packers, pulling away with a 33–32 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 26 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

A. Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) paced the passing game, with +15.58 total EPA, and +7.6% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, M. Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +15.85 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+18.0% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Atlanta Falcons changed the game: (:36) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 12-M.Sanu for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 M. Ryan · Atlanta Falcons · Passing · +15.85 total EPA · 42 snaps · +0.38 EPA/play
2. 2 A. Rodgers · Green Bay Packers · Passing · +15.58 total EPA · 48 snaps · +0.32 EPA/play
3. 3 J. Nelson · Green Bay Packers · Receiving · +6.13 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.68 EPA/play
4. 4 M. Sanu · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +5.89 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.59 EPA/play
5. 5 T. Gabriel · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +5.19 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.73 EPA/play
6. 6 T. Davis · Green Bay Packers · Receiving · +3.74 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.93 EPA/play
7. 7 J. Janis · Green Bay Packers · Receiving · +3.54 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.89 EPA/play
8. 8 G. Allison · Green Bay Packers · Receiving · +3.22 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.80 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Green Bay Packers — J. Nelson (A. Rodgers pass) (Q1 51:14)
• Atlanta Falcons — T. Gabriel (M. Ryan pass) (Q1 49:36)
• Green Bay Packers — G. Allison (A. Rodgers pass) (Q2 41:58)
• Green Bay Packers — T. Davis (A. Rodgers pass) (Q2 34:31)
• Atlanta Falcons — D. Freeman (M. Ryan pass) (Q2 30:32)
• Atlanta Falcons — D. Freeman (Q3 18:35)
• Green Bay Packers — J. Janis (A. Rodgers pass) (Q4 4:04)
• Atlanta Falcons — M. Sanu (M. Ryan pass) (Q4 0:36)

Field goals

• Atlanta Falcons — M. Bryant (Q1 54:46)
• Atlanta Falcons — M. Bryant (Q2 38:55)
• Green Bay Packers — M. Crosby (Q2 30:04)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Atlanta Falcons won the period 10–7. Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the GB 18 (Q1 54:46) — (9:46) 3-M.Bryant 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.; Green Bay Packers found the end zone from the ATL 5 (Q1 51:14) — (6:14) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 87-J.Nelson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Green Bay Packers added 1 points from the ATL 15 (Q1 51:08) — 2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the GB 47 (Q1 49:36) — (4:36) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 18-T.Gabriel for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the GB 15 (Q1 49:28) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher..

The second quarter: Green Bay Packers won the period 17–9. Green Bay Packers found the end zone from the ATL 4 (Q2 41:58) — (11:58) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 81-G.Allison for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Green Bay Packers added 1 points from the ATL 15 (Q2 41:53) — 2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.; Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the GB 22 (Q2 38:55) — (8:55) 3-M.Bryant 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.; Green Bay Packers found the end zone from the ATL 9 (Q2 34:31) — (4:31) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 11-T.Davis for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Green Bay Packers added 1 points from the ATL 15 (Q2 34:22) — 2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the GB 5 (Q2 30:32) — (:32) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 24-D.Freeman for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Green Bay Packers connected on a field goal from the ATL 11 (Q2 30:04) — (:04) 2-M.Crosby 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum..

The third quarter: Atlanta Falcons won the period 7–0. Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the GB 1 (Q3 18:35) — (3:35) 24-D.Freeman right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the GB 15 (Q3 18:31) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher..

The fourth quarter: Green Bay Packers won the period 8–7. Green Bay Packers found the end zone from the ATL 7 (Q4 4:04) — (4:04) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 83-J.Janis for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on ATL, Defensive Holding, declined.; Green Bay Packers registered a safety from the ATL 2 (Q4 3:58) — (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 12-A.Rodgers rushes right end. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the GB 11 (Q4 0:36) — (:36) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 12-M.Sanu for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the GB 15 (Q4 0:31) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Atlanta Falcons (Q4 0:36) — (:36) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 12-M.Sanu for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +18.0% · EPA +2.22]
• Green Bay Packers (Q4 0:14) — (:14) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 17-D.Adams. [WPA -15.4% · EPA -2.25]
• Green Bay Packers (Q4 4:04) — (4:04) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 83-J.Janis for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on ATL, Defensive Holding, declined. [WPA +15.3% · EPA +2.70]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q1 56:47) — (11:47) 24-D.Freeman left end pushed ob at GB 25 for 17 yards (50-B.Martinez). [WPA +14.3% · EPA +2.92]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q1 49:36) — (4:36) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 18-T.Gabriel for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +14.3% · EPA +3.72]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Green Bay Packers (Q1 52:37) — (7:37) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 87-J.Nelson pushed ob at ATL 7 for 58 yards (37-R.Allen) [97-G.Jarrett]. [WPA +14.2% · EPA +4.69]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q1 49:36) — (4:36) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 18-T.Gabriel for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +14.3% · EPA +3.72]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q2 36:02) — (6:02) 5-M.Bosher punts 49 yards to GB 30, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-T.Davis to ATL 15 for 55 yards (36-K.Ishmael). [WPA -10.5% · EPA -3.40]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q1 56:47) — (11:47) 24-D.Freeman left end pushed ob at GB 25 for 17 yards (50-B.Martinez). [WPA +14.3% · EPA +2.92]

Quarterback report card

A.Rodgers led all passers in efficiency for Green Bay Packers, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• A.Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) · 48 dropbacks · 58.3% completion · +7.6% CPOE · +0.32 EPA/play · +15.58 total EPA
• M.Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) · 42 dropbacks · 66.7% completion · +7.1% CPOE · +0.38 EPA/play · +15.85 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Green Bay Packers +0.18, Atlanta Falcons +0.19) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Atlanta Falcons: 9 drives, +14.13 total EPA, 6 scoring drives
• Green Bay Packers: 9 drives, +14.50 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Atlanta Falcons leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• M. Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• A. Rodgers (GB) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• M. Ryan (ATL) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q1 54:46 · GB 18 · Score 0-3
   (9:46) 3-M.Bryant 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
2. Green Bay Packers TD (+6) — Q1 51:14 · ATL 5 · Score 6-3
   (6:14) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 87-J.Nelson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3. Green Bay Packers XP (+1) — Q1 51:08 · ATL 15 · Score 7-3
   2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.
4. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q1 49:36 · GB 47 · Score 7-9
   (4:36) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 18-T.Gabriel for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q1 49:28 · GB 15 · Score 7-10
   3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
6. Green Bay Packers TD (+6) — Q2 41:58 · ATL 4 · Score 13-10
   (11:58) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 81-G.Allison for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7. Green Bay Packers XP (+1) — Q2 41:53 · ATL 15 · Score 14-10
   2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.
8. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q2 38:55 · GB 22 · Score 14-13
   (8:55) 3-M.Bryant 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
9. Green Bay Packers TD (+6) — Q2 34:31 · ATL 9 · Score 20-13
   (4:31) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 11-T.Davis for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10. Green Bay Packers XP (+1) — Q2 34:22 · ATL 15 · Score 21-13
    2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.
11. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q2 30:32 · GB 5 · Score 21-19
    (:32) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 24-D.Freeman for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12. Green Bay Packers FG (+3) — Q2 30:04 · ATL 11 · Score 24-19
    (:04) 2-M.Crosby 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.
13. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q3 18:35 · GB 1 · Score 24-25
    (3:35) 24-D.Freeman right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
14. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q3 18:31 · GB 15 · Score 24-26
    3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
15. Green Bay Packers TD (+6) — Q4 4:04 · ATL 7 · Score 30-26
    (4:04) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 83-J.Janis for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on ATL, Defensive Holding, declined.
16. Green Bay Packers Safety (+2) — Q4 3:58 · ATL 2 · Score 32-26
    (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 12-A.Rodgers rushes right end. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
17. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q4 0:36 · GB 11 · Score 32-32
    (:36) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 12-M.Sanu for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
18. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q4 0:31 · GB 15 · Score 32-33
    3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.