Green Bay Packers vs. Atlanta Falcons: 2010 Week 12 Recap

Game story

In Week 12 of the 2010 NFL season on 2010-11-28, the Atlanta Falcons took care of business against the Green Bay Packers, pulling away with a 20–17 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 17 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

A. Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) paced the passing game, with +20.92 total EPA, and +8.3% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, A. Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +20.92 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+21.5% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Atlanta Falcons changed the game: (:13) 3-M.Bryant 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-J.Zelenka, Holder-9-M.Koenen.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 A. Rodgers · Green Bay Packers · Passing · +20.92 total EPA · 43 snaps · +0.49 EPA/play
2. 2 J. Nelson · Green Bay Packers · Receiving · +9.15 total EPA · 5 snaps · +1.83 EPA/play
3. 3 M. Ryan · Atlanta Falcons · Passing · +7.76 total EPA · 31 snaps · +0.25 EPA/play
4. 4 T. Gonzalez · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +7.32 total EPA · 6 snaps · +1.22 EPA/play
5. 5 G. Jennings · Green Bay Packers · Receiving · +4.70 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.59 EPA/play
6. 6 B. Swain · Green Bay Packers · Receiving · +3.71 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.86 EPA/play
7. 7 R. White · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +3.47 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.50 EPA/play
8. 8 J. Jones · Green Bay Packers · Receiving · +3.19 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.40 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Atlanta Falcons — T. Gonzalez (M. Ryan pass) (Q2 30:12)
• Green Bay Packers — A. Rodgers (Q3 22:22)
• Atlanta Falcons — M. Turner (Q4 14:27)
• Green Bay Packers — J. Nelson (A. Rodgers pass) (Q4 1:06)

Field goals

• Atlanta Falcons — M. Bryant (Q1 54:36)
• Green Bay Packers — M. Crosby (Q1 45:07)
• Atlanta Falcons — M. Bryant (Q4 0:13)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: The quarter finished even at 3–3. Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the GB 20 (Q1 54:36) — (9:36) 3-M.Bryant 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-J.Zelenka, Holder-9-M.Koenen.; Green Bay Packers connected on a field goal from the ATL 4 (Q1 45:07) — (:07) 2-M.Crosby 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay..

The second quarter: Atlanta Falcons won the period 7–0. Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the GB 4 (Q2 30:12) — (:12) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 88-T.Gonzalez for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the GB 2 (Q2 30:08).

The third quarter: Green Bay Packers won the period 7–0. Green Bay Packers found the end zone from the ATL 1 (Q3 22:22) — (7:22) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Green Bay Packers added 1 points from the ATL 2 (Q3 22:17) — 2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay..

The fourth quarter: Atlanta Falcons won the period 10–7. Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the GB 1 (Q4 14:27) — (14:27) 33-M.Turner left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the GB 2 (Q4 14:24) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-82-J.Zelenka, Holder-9-M.Koenen.; Green Bay Packers found the end zone from the ATL 10 (Q4 1:06) — (1:06) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 87-J.Nelson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Green Bay Packers added 1 points from the ATL 2 (Q4 0:56) — 2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.; Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the GB 29 (Q4 0:13) — (:13) 3-M.Bryant 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-J.Zelenka, Holder-9-M.Koenen..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Atlanta Falcons (Q4 0:13) — (:13) 3-M.Bryant 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-J.Zelenka, Holder-9-M.Koenen. [WPA +21.5% · EPA +0.75]
• Green Bay Packers (Q4 1:06) — (1:06) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 87-J.Nelson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +18.6% · EPA +4.37]
• Green Bay Packers (Q2 37:40) — (7:40) 12-A.Rodgers left guard to ATL 1 for no gain (50-C.Lofton). FUMBLES (50-C.Lofton), RECOVERED by ATL-53-M.Peterson at ATL 0. Touchback. [WPA -16.5% · EPA -6.67]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q4 14:27) — (14:27) 33-M.Turner left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +15.8% · EPA +2.63]
• Green Bay Packers (Q4 2:11) — (2:11) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 89-J.Jones to ATL 3 for 18 yards (23-D.Robinson). Penalty on ATL-29-B.Williams, Defensive Offside, declined. [WPA +15.8% · EPA +3.18]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Green Bay Packers (Q2 37:40) — (7:40) 12-A.Rodgers left guard to ATL 1 for no gain (50-C.Lofton). FUMBLES (50-C.Lofton), RECOVERED by ATL-53-M.Peterson at ATL 0. Touchback. [WPA -16.5% · EPA -6.67]
• Green Bay Packers (Q4 1:06) — (1:06) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 87-J.Nelson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +18.6% · EPA +4.37]
• Green Bay Packers (Q4 9:20) — (9:20) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short middle to 80-D.Driver [29-B.Williams]. [WPA -5.9% · EPA -3.43]
• Green Bay Packers (Q4 2:11) — (2:11) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 89-J.Jones to ATL 3 for 18 yards (23-D.Robinson). Penalty on ATL-29-B.Williams, Defensive Offside, declined. [WPA +15.8% · EPA +3.18]

Quarterback report card

A.Rodgers led all passers in efficiency for Green Bay Packers, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• A.Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) · 43 dropbacks · 60.5% completion · +8.3% CPOE · +0.49 EPA/play · +20.92 total EPA
• M.Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) · 31 dropbacks · 77.4% completion · +16.8% CPOE · +0.25 EPA/play · +7.76 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Green Bay Packers +0.11, Atlanta Falcons +0.11) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Atlanta Falcons: 8 drives, +8.34 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• Green Bay Packers: 9 drives, +8.08 total EPA, 3 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Atlanta Falcons leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• A. Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• A. Rodgers (GB) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• M. Ryan (ATL) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q1 54:36 · GB 20 · Score 0-3
   (9:36) 3-M.Bryant 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-J.Zelenka, Holder-9-M.Koenen.
2. Green Bay Packers FG (+3) — Q1 45:07 · ATL 4 · Score 3-3
   (:07) 2-M.Crosby 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.
3. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q2 30:12 · GB 4 · Score 3-9
   (:12) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 88-T.Gonzalez for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q2 30:08 · GB 2 · Score 3-10
   3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-82-J.Zelenka, Holder-9-M.Koenen. PENALTY on GB-77-C.Jenkins, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
5. Green Bay Packers TD (+6) — Q3 22:22 · ATL 1 · Score 9-10
   (7:22) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Green Bay Packers XP (+1) — Q3 22:17 · ATL 2 · Score 10-10
   2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.
7. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q4 14:27 · GB 1 · Score 10-16
   (14:27) 33-M.Turner left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
8. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q4 14:24 · GB 2 · Score 10-17
   3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-82-J.Zelenka, Holder-9-M.Koenen.
9. Green Bay Packers TD (+6) — Q4 1:06 · ATL 10 · Score 16-17
   (1:06) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 87-J.Nelson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10. Green Bay Packers XP (+1) — Q4 0:56 · ATL 2 · Score 17-17
    2-M.Crosby extra point is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.
11. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q4 0:13 · GB 29 · Score 17-20
    (:13) 3-M.Bryant 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-J.Zelenka, Holder-9-M.Koenen.