Detroit Lions vs. Las Vegas Raiders: 2011 Week 15 Recap

Game story

In Week 15 of the 2011 NFL season on 2011-12-18, the Detroit Lions took care of business against the Las Vegas Raiders, pulling away with a 28–27 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 24 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

M. Stafford (Detroit Lions) paced the passing game, with +12.75 total EPA, and -1.8% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, C. Johnson (Detroit Lions) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +14.75 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-38.1% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Las Vegas Raiders changed the game: (:04) (Shotgun) 11-S.Janikowski 65 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-N.Suh), Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 C. Johnson · Detroit Lions · Receiving · +14.75 total EPA · 14 snaps · +1.05 EPA/play
2. 2 M. Stafford · Detroit Lions · Passing · +12.75 total EPA · 60 snaps · +0.21 EPA/play
3. 3 D. Heyward-Bey · Las Vegas Raiders · Receiving · +8.67 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.96 EPA/play
4. 4 N. Burleson · Detroit Lions · Receiving · +5.75 total EPA · 11 snaps · +0.52 EPA/play
5. 5 C. Palmer · Las Vegas Raiders · Passing · +4.45 total EPA · 44 snaps · +0.10 EPA/play
6. 6 M. Stafford · Detroit Lions · Rushing · +2.86 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.86 EPA/play
7. 7 L. Murphy · Las Vegas Raiders · Rushing · +1.91 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.95 EPA/play
8. 8 M. Reece · Las Vegas Raiders · Rushing · +1.86 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.86 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Las Vegas Raiders — L. Murphy (Q1 51:27)
• Detroit Lions — C. Johnson (M. Stafford pass) (Q1 48:43)
• Las Vegas Raiders — D. Heyward-Bey (C. Palmer pass) (Q2 39:15)
• Detroit Lions — N. Burleson (M. Stafford pass) (Q2 31:22)
• Las Vegas Raiders — A. Curry (Q4 7:55)
• Detroit Lions — T. Young (M. Stafford pass) (Q4 5:03)
• Detroit Lions — C. Johnson (M. Stafford pass) (Q4 0:43)

Field goals

• Las Vegas Raiders — S. Janikowski (Q2 30:05)
• Las Vegas Raiders — S. Janikowski (Q4 8:17)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. Las Vegas Raiders found the end zone from the DET 12 (Q1 51:27) — (6:27) 18-L.Murphy left end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Las Vegas Raiders added 1 points from the DET 2 (Q1 51:19) — 11-S.Janikowski extra point is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-9-S.Lechler.; Detroit Lions found the end zone from the LV 51 (Q1 48:43) — (3:43) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 81-C.Johnson for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Detroit Lions added 1 points from the LV 2 (Q1 48:34) — 4-J.Hanson extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-2-B.Graham..

The second quarter: Las Vegas Raiders won the period 10–7. Las Vegas Raiders found the end zone from the DET 43 (Q2 39:15) — (9:15) 3-C.Palmer pass short middle to 85-D.Heyward-Bey for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Las Vegas Raiders added 1 points from the DET 2 (Q2 39:07) — 11-S.Janikowski extra point is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-9-S.Lechler.; Detroit Lions found the end zone from the LV 39 (Q2 31:22) — (1:22) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 13-N.Burleson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Detroit Lions added 1 points from the LV 2 (Q2 31:14) — 4-J.Hanson extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-2-B.Graham.; Las Vegas Raiders connected on a field goal from the DET 28 (Q2 30:05) — (:05) 11-S.Janikowski 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-9-S.Lechler..

The fourth quarter: Detroit Lions won the period 14–10. Las Vegas Raiders connected on a field goal from the DET 33 (Q4 8:17) — (8:17) 11-S.Janikowski 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-9-S.Lechler.; Las Vegas Raiders found the end zone from the LV 86 (Q4 7:55); Las Vegas Raiders added 1 points from the DET 2 (Q4 7:47) — 11-S.Janikowski extra point is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-9-S.Lechler.; Detroit Lions found the end zone from the LV 3 (Q4 5:03) — (5:03) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 16-T.Young for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Detroit Lions added 1 points from the LV 2 (Q4 4:59) — 4-J.Hanson extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-2-B.Graham.; Detroit Lions found the end zone from the LV 6 (Q4 0:43) — (:43) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 81-C.Johnson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Detroit Lions added 1 points from the LV 2 (Q4 0:39) — 4-J.Hanson extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-2-B.Graham..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Las Vegas Raiders (Q4 0:04) — (:04) (Shotgun) 11-S.Janikowski 65 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-N.Suh), Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-9-S.Lechler. [WPA -38.1% · EPA -0.71]
• Detroit Lions (Q4 1:33) — (1:33) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 81-C.Johnson to LV 13 for 48 yards (55-R.McClain). [WPA +23.2% · EPA +2.90]
• Las Vegas Raiders (Q1) — Lions' Captains: #9 M.Stafford; #51 D.Raiola; #92 C.Avril; #93 K.Vanden Bosch [WPA +18.2% · EPA -0.02]
• Las Vegas Raiders (Q2 39:15) — (9:15) 3-C.Palmer pass short middle to 85-D.Heyward-Bey for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +15.3% · EPA +4.52]
• Las Vegas Raiders (Q4 0:21) — (:21) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer sacked at LV 47 for -3 yards (92-C.Avril). [WPA -14.4% · EPA -0.62]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Detroit Lions (Q4 7:55) — (7:55) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at DET 5 for -9 yards (93-T.Kelly). FUMBLES (93-T.Kelly), RECOVERED by LV-51-A.Curry at DET 6. 51-A.Curry for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on LV-51-A.Curry, Unsport [WPA -10.1% · EPA -5.88]
• Detroit Lions (Q1 48:43) — (3:43) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 81-C.Johnson for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +13.1% · EPA +4.86]
• Detroit Lions (Q2 31:22) — (1:22) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 13-N.Burleson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +13.4% · EPA +4.65]
• Las Vegas Raiders (Q2 39:15) — (9:15) 3-C.Palmer pass short middle to 85-D.Heyward-Bey for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +15.3% · EPA +4.52]

Quarterback report card

M.Stafford led all passers in efficiency for Detroit Lions, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• M.Stafford (Detroit Lions) · 60 dropbacks · 48.3% completion · -1.8% CPOE · +0.21 EPA/play · +12.75 total EPA
• C.Palmer (Las Vegas Raiders) · 44 dropbacks · 72.7% completion · +17.2% CPOE · +0.10 EPA/play · +4.45 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Detroit Lions +0.10, Las Vegas Raiders +0.09) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Detroit Lions: 12 drives, +10.12 total EPA, 5 scoring drives
• Las Vegas Raiders: 14 drives, +8.29 total EPA, 4 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Detroit Lions leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• C. Johnson (Detroit Lions) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• C. Palmer (LV) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Las Vegas Raiders TD (+6) — Q1 51:27 · DET 12 · Score 0-6
   (6:27) 18-L.Murphy left end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Las Vegas Raiders XP (+1) — Q1 51:19 · DET 2 · Score 0-7
   11-S.Janikowski extra point is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-9-S.Lechler.
3. Detroit Lions TD (+6) — Q1 48:43 · LV 51 · Score 6-7
   (3:43) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 81-C.Johnson for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Detroit Lions XP (+1) — Q1 48:34 · LV 2 · Score 7-7
   4-J.Hanson extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-2-B.Graham.
5. Las Vegas Raiders TD (+6) — Q2 39:15 · DET 43 · Score 7-13
   (9:15) 3-C.Palmer pass short middle to 85-D.Heyward-Bey for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Las Vegas Raiders XP (+1) — Q2 39:07 · DET 2 · Score 7-14
   11-S.Janikowski extra point is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-9-S.Lechler.
7. Detroit Lions TD (+6) — Q2 31:22 · LV 39 · Score 13-14
   (1:22) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 13-N.Burleson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8. Detroit Lions XP (+1) — Q2 31:14 · LV 2 · Score 14-14
   4-J.Hanson extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-2-B.Graham.
9. Las Vegas Raiders FG (+3) — Q2 30:05 · DET 28 · Score 14-17
   (:05) 11-S.Janikowski 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-9-S.Lechler.
10. Las Vegas Raiders FG (+3) — Q4 8:17 · DET 33 · Score 14-20
    (8:17) 11-S.Janikowski 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-9-S.Lechler.
11. Las Vegas Raiders TD (+6) — Q4 7:55 · LV 86 · Score 14-26
    (7:55) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at DET 5 for -9 yards (93-T.Kelly). FUMBLES (93-T.Kelly), RECOVERED by LV-51-A.Curry at DET 6. 51-A.Curry for 6 yards, TOUC
12. Las Vegas Raiders XP (+1) — Q4 7:47 · DET 2 · Score 14-27
    11-S.Janikowski extra point is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-9-S.Lechler.
13. Detroit Lions TD (+6) — Q4 5:03 · LV 3 · Score 20-27
    (5:03) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 16-T.Young for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14. Detroit Lions XP (+1) — Q4 4:59 · LV 2 · Score 21-27
    4-J.Hanson extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-2-B.Graham.
15. Detroit Lions TD (+6) — Q4 0:43 · LV 6 · Score 27-27
    (:43) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 81-C.Johnson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16. Detroit Lions XP (+1) — Q4 0:39 · LV 2 · Score 28-27
    4-J.Hanson extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-2-B.Graham.