Denver Broncos vs. San Francisco 49ers: 2018 Week 14 Recap

Game story

In Week 14 of the 2018 NFL season on 2018-12-09, the San Francisco 49ers took care of business against the Denver Broncos, pulling away with a 20–14 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 17 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

C. Keenum (Denver Broncos) paced the passing game, with -2.33 total EPA, and -2.8% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, G. Kittle (San Francisco 49ers) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +14.16 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+17.2% win probability) landed in the second quarter when San Francisco 49ers changed the game: (10:00) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short right to 85-G.Kittle for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 30. 70-YAC

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 G. Kittle · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +14.16 total EPA · 9 snaps · +1.57 EPA/play
2. 2 N. Mullens · San Francisco 49ers · Passing · +10.93 total EPA · 42 snaps · +0.26 EPA/play
3. 3 T. Patrick · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +5.96 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.60 EPA/play
4. 4 D. Hamilton · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +4.02 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.45 EPA/play
5. 5 D. Pettis · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +2.85 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.41 EPA/play
6. 6 A. Janovich · Denver Broncos · Rushing · +1.83 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.83 EPA/play
7. 7 T. Patrick · Denver Broncos · Rushing · +1.30 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.30 EPA/play
8. 8 M. Goodwin · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +1.14 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.57 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• San Francisco 49ers — G. Kittle (N. Mullens pass) (Q2 40:00)
• San Francisco 49ers — D. Pettis (N. Mullens pass) (Q2 30:12)
• Denver Broncos — P. Lindsay (Q3 21:07)
• Denver Broncos — D. Hamilton (C. Keenum pass) (Q4 3:57)

Field goals

• San Francisco 49ers — R. Gould (Q1 55:28)
• San Francisco 49ers — R. Gould (Q2 43:04)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: San Francisco 49ers won the period 3–0. San Francisco 49ers connected on a field goal from the DEN 22 (Q1 55:28) — (10:28) 9-R.Gould 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion..

The second quarter: San Francisco 49ers won the period 17–0. San Francisco 49ers connected on a field goal from the DEN 12 (Q2 43:04) — (13:04) 9-R.Gould 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion.; San Francisco 49ers found the end zone from the DEN 85 (Q2 40:00) — (10:00) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short right to 85-G.Kittle for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 30. 70-YAC; San Francisco 49ers added 1 points from the DEN 15 (Q2 39:47) — 9-R.Gould extra point is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion.; San Francisco 49ers found the end zone from the DEN 1 (Q2 30:12); San Francisco 49ers added 1 points from the DEN 15 (Q2 30:08) — 9-R.Gould extra point is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion..

The third quarter: Denver Broncos won the period 7–0. Denver Broncos found the end zone from the SF 3 (Q3 21:07) — (6:07) (Shotgun) 30-P.Lindsay up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Denver Broncos added 1 points from the SF 15 (Q3 21:05) — 8-B.McManus extra point is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman..

The fourth quarter: Denver Broncos won the period 7–0. Denver Broncos found the end zone from the SF 1 (Q4 3:57) — (3:57) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short right to 17-D.Hamilton for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 2. 2-YAC; Denver Broncos added 1 points from the SF 15 (Q4 3:53) — 8-B.McManus extra point is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• San Francisco 49ers (Q2 40:00) — (10:00) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short right to 85-G.Kittle for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 30. 70-YAC [WPA +17.2% · EPA +6.70]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q1 57:43) — (12:43) 4-N.Mullens pass deep right to 85-G.Kittle to DEN 22 for 31 yards (26-D.Stewart). Caught at DEN 36. 14-YAC [WPA +8.0% · EPA +1.93]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q2 43:37) — (13:37) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens sacked at DEN 12 for -8 yards (55-B.Chubb). [WPA -7.5% · EPA -2.20]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q1 45:28) — (:28) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle to DEN 12 for 52 yards (31-J.Simmons). Caught at SF 43. 45-YAC [WPA +7.4% · EPA +3.51]
• Denver Broncos (Q4 3:57) — (3:57) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short right to 17-D.Hamilton for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 2. 2-YAC [WPA +7.1% · EPA +2.48]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• San Francisco 49ers (Q2 40:00) — (10:00) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short right to 85-G.Kittle for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 30. 70-YAC [WPA +17.2% · EPA +6.70]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q4 11:23) — (11:23) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short middle intended for 81-T.Taylor INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Stewart at DEN 41. 26-D.Stewart to DEN 41 for no gain (81-T.Taylor). [WPA -3.1% · EPA -3.65]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q1 45:28) — (:28) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle to DEN 12 for 52 yards (31-J.Simmons). Caught at SF 43. 45-YAC [WPA +7.4% · EPA +3.51]
• Denver Broncos (Q3 21:32) — (6:32) 4-C.Keenum pass deep right to 81-T.Patrick ran ob at SF 3 for 19 yards. Caught at SF 5. 2-YAC [WPA +2.2% · EPA +3.49]

Quarterback report card

C.Keenum led all passers in efficiency for Denver Broncos, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• C.Keenum (Denver Broncos) · 50 dropbacks · 48.0% completion · -2.8% CPOE · -0.05 EPA/play · -2.33 total EPA
• N.Mullens (San Francisco 49ers) · 42 dropbacks · 47.6% completion · -4.0% CPOE · +0.26 EPA/play · +10.93 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

San Francisco 49ers held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.01 vs -0.06), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Denver Broncos: 12 drives, -5.65 total EPA, 2 scoring drives
• San Francisco 49ers: 11 drives, +0.69 total EPA, 4 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• San Francisco 49ers leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• G. Kittle (San Francisco 49ers) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• N. Mullens (SF) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. San Francisco 49ers FG (+3) — Q1 55:28 · DEN 22 · Score 0-3
   (10:28) 9-R.Gould 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion.
2. San Francisco 49ers FG (+3) — Q2 43:04 · DEN 12 · Score 0-6
   (13:04) 9-R.Gould 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion.
3. San Francisco 49ers TD (+6) — Q2 40:00 · DEN 85 · Score 0-12
   (10:00) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short right to 85-G.Kittle for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 30. 70-YAC
4. San Francisco 49ers XP (+1) — Q2 39:47 · DEN 15 · Score 0-13
   9-R.Gould extra point is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion.
5. San Francisco 49ers TD (+6) — Q2 30:12 · DEN 1 · Score 0-19
   (:12) 4-N.Mullens pass short right to 18-D.Pettis for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DEN-41-I.Yiadom was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
6. San Francisco 49ers XP (+1) — Q2 30:08 · DEN 15 · Score 0-20
   9-R.Gould extra point is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion.
7. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q3 21:07 · SF 3 · Score 6-20
   (6:07) (Shotgun) 30-P.Lindsay up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8. Denver Broncos XP (+1) — Q3 21:05 · SF 15 · Score 7-20
   8-B.McManus extra point is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman.
9. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q4 3:57 · SF 1 · Score 13-20
   (3:57) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short right to 17-D.Hamilton for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 2. 2-YAC
10. Denver Broncos XP (+1) — Q4 3:53 · SF 15 · Score 14-20
    8-B.McManus extra point is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman.