Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs: 2019 Week 15 Recap

Game story

In Week 15 of the 2019 NFL season on 2019-12-15, the Kansas City Chiefs took care of business against the Denver Broncos, pulling away with a 23–3 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 12 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

P. Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) paced the passing game, with +15.82 total EPA, and +16.5% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, P. Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +15.82 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+8.9% win probability) landed in the opening quarter when Kansas City Chiefs changed the game: (9:50) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 P. Mahomes · Kansas City Chiefs · Passing · +15.82 total EPA · 45 snaps · +0.35 EPA/play
2. 2 T. Kelce · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +6.38 total EPA · 13 snaps · +0.49 EPA/play
3. 3 S. Watkins · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +4.53 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.91 EPA/play
4. 4 B. Bell · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +3.24 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.62 EPA/play
5. 5 C. Sutton · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +2.32 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.23 EPA/play
6. 6 T. Hill · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +1.41 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.20 EPA/play
7. 7 A. Beck · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +0.75 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.25 EPA/play
8. 8 D. Robinson · Kansas City Chiefs · Receiving · +0.58 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.19 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Kansas City Chiefs — T. Hill (P. Mahomes pass) (Q1 54:50)
• Kansas City Chiefs — T. Hill (P. Mahomes pass) (Q3 24:50)

Field goals

• Kansas City Chiefs — H. Butker (Q2 43:02)
• Kansas City Chiefs — H. Butker (Q2 36:27)
• Denver Broncos — B. McManus (Q2 32:00)
• Kansas City Chiefs — H. Butker (Q2 30:02)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Kansas City Chiefs won the period 6–0. Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the DEN 41 (Q1 54:50) — (9:50) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN..

The second quarter: Kansas City Chiefs won the period 9–3. Kansas City Chiefs connected on a field goal from the DEN 5 (Q2 43:02) — (13:02) 7-H.Butker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.; Kansas City Chiefs connected on a field goal from the DEN 6 (Q2 36:27) — (6:27) 7-H.Butker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.; Denver Broncos connected on a field goal from the KC 14 (Q2 32:00) — (2:00) 8-B.McManus 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.; Kansas City Chiefs connected on a field goal from the DEN 26 (Q2 30:02) — (:02) 7-H.Butker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt..

The third quarter: Kansas City Chiefs won the period 8–0. Kansas City Chiefs found the end zone from the DEN 5 (Q3 24:50) — (9:50) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 10-T.Hill for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Kansas City Chiefs registered a safety from the DEN 2 (Q3 24:45) — TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 15-P.Mahomes pass to 14-S.Watkins is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Kansas City Chiefs (Q1 54:50) — (9:50) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +8.9% · EPA +3.43]
• Denver Broncos (Q2 33:46) — (3:46) 3-D.Lock pass deep left to 87-N.Fant to KC 9 for 43 yards (35-C.Ward). DEN-87-N.Fant was injured during the play. [WPA +7.9% · EPA +4.86]
• Denver Broncos (Q1 50:42) — (5:42) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock sacked at DEN 43 for -9 yards (97-A.Okafor). [WPA -6.4% · EPA -2.43]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q2 40:30) — (10:30) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 14-S.Watkins to DEN 44 for 29 yards (34-W.Parks). [WPA +6.0% · EPA +2.78]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q1 45:51) — (:51) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 17-M.Hardman ran ob at DEN 23 for 10 yards (36-T.Marshall) [34-W.Parks]. [WPA +4.3% · EPA +1.87]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Denver Broncos (Q3 17:23) — (2:23) 3-D.Lock pass short right intended for 87-N.Fant INTERCEPTED by 22-J.Thornhill at KC -2. Touchback (87-N.Fant). [WPA -1.6% · EPA -6.19]
• Denver Broncos (Q2 33:46) — (3:46) 3-D.Lock pass deep left to 87-N.Fant to KC 9 for 43 yards (35-C.Ward). DEN-87-N.Fant was injured during the play. [WPA +7.9% · EPA +4.86]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q4 13:37) — (13:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 10-T.Hill INTERCEPTED by 31-J.Simmons at DEN 1. 31-J.Simmons to DEN 1 for no gain (10-T.Hill). KC-10-T.Hill was injured during the play. [WPA -0.1% · EPA -3.68]
• Kansas City Chiefs (Q1 54:50) — (9:50) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +8.9% · EPA +3.43]

Quarterback report card

P.Mahomes led all passers in efficiency for Kansas City Chiefs, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• P.Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) · 45 dropbacks · 60.0% completion · +16.5% CPOE · +0.35 EPA/play · +15.82 total EPA
• D.Lock (Denver Broncos) · 44 dropbacks · 40.9% completion · -19.4% CPOE · -0.19 EPA/play · -8.45 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Kansas City Chiefs held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.12 vs -0.17), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Denver Broncos: 8 drives, -12.11 total EPA, 1 scoring drives
• Kansas City Chiefs: 9 drives, +9.58 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Kansas City Chiefs leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• P. Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• P. Mahomes (KC) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• D. Lock (DEN) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q1 54:50 · DEN 41 · Score 0-6
   (9:50) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Kansas City Chiefs FG (+3) — Q2 43:02 · DEN 5 · Score 0-9
   (13:02) 7-H.Butker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
3. Kansas City Chiefs FG (+3) — Q2 36:27 · DEN 6 · Score 0-12
   (6:27) 7-H.Butker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
4. Denver Broncos FG (+3) — Q2 32:00 · KC 14 · Score 3-12
   (2:00) 8-B.McManus 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.
5. Kansas City Chiefs FG (+3) — Q2 30:02 · DEN 26 · Score 3-15
   (:02) 7-H.Butker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
6. Kansas City Chiefs TD (+6) — Q3 24:50 · DEN 5 · Score 3-21
   (9:50) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 10-T.Hill for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7. Kansas City Chiefs Safety (+2) — Q3 24:45 · DEN 2 · Score 3-23
   TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 15-P.Mahomes pass to 14-S.Watkins is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.