Denver Broncos vs. Indianapolis Colts: 2015 Week 9 Recap

Game story

In Week 9 of the 2015 NFL season on 2015-11-08, the Indianapolis Colts took care of business against the Denver Broncos, pulling away with a 27–24 final that came down to the wire.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 17 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

A. Luck (Indianapolis Colts) paced the passing game, with +14.95 total EPA, and -3.3% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, A. Luck (Indianapolis Colts) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +14.95 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-16.8% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Denver Broncos changed the game: (6:06) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep right intended for 88-D.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 20-D.Butler [54-D.Parry] at DEN 49. 20-D.Butler to DEN 49 for no gain (88-D.Thomas).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 A. Luck · Indianapolis Colts · Passing · +14.95 total EPA · 44 snaps · +0.34 EPA/play
2. 2 T. Hilton · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +7.60 total EPA · 6 snaps · +1.27 EPA/play
3. 3 E. Sanders · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +5.95 total EPA · 11 snaps · +0.54 EPA/play
4. 4 G. Whalen · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +5.02 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.84 EPA/play
5. 5 P. Manning · Denver Broncos · Passing · +4.93 total EPA · 38 snaps · +0.13 EPA/play
6. 6 J. Doyle · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +3.54 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.77 EPA/play
7. 7 A. Bradshaw · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +2.13 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.07 EPA/play
8. 8 O. Daniels · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +1.63 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.18 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Indianapolis Colts — F. Gore (Q1 51:52)
• Indianapolis Colts — J. Doyle (A. Luck pass) (Q2 37:18)
• Denver Broncos — O. Bolden (Q2 30:15)
• Denver Broncos — E. Sanders (P. Manning pass) (Q3 26:37)
• Indianapolis Colts — A. Bradshaw (A. Luck pass) (Q4 14:09)
• Denver Broncos — O. Daniels (P. Manning pass) (Q4 8:58)

Field goals

• Indianapolis Colts — A. Vinatieri (Q2 42:17)
• Denver Broncos — B. McManus (Q3 20:01)
• Indianapolis Colts — A. Vinatieri (Q4 6:18)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 7–0. Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the DEN 7 (Q1 51:52) — (6:52) (Run formation) 23-F.Gore up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the DEN 15 (Q1 51:48) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee..

The second quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 10–7. Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the DEN 25 (Q2 42:17) — (12:17) 4-A.Vinatieri 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the DEN 3 (Q2 37:18) — (7:18) (Run formation) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 84-J.Doyle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the DEN 15 (Q2 37:12) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.; Denver Broncos found the end zone from the DEN 69 (Q2 30:15) — (:15) 1-P.McAfee punts 52 yards to DEN 17, Center-45-M.Overton. 31-O.Bolden for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Denver Broncos added 1 points from the IND 15 (Q2 30:00) — 8-B.McManus extra point is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt..

The third quarter: Denver Broncos won the period 10–0. Denver Broncos found the end zone from the IND 64 (Q3 26:37) — (11:37) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep middle to 10-E.Sanders for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Denver Broncos added 1 points from the IND 15 (Q3 26:27) — 8-B.McManus extra point is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.; Denver Broncos connected on a field goal from the IND 11 (Q3 20:01) — (5:01) 8-B.McManus 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt..

The fourth quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 10–7. Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the DEN 8 (Q4 14:09) — (14:09) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 44-A.Bradshaw for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the DEN 15 (Q4 14:05) — 4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.; Denver Broncos found the end zone from the IND 1 (Q4 8:58) — (8:58) 53-J.Ferentz reported in as eligible. 18-P.Manning pass short middle to 81-O.Daniels for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Denver Broncos added 1 points from the IND 15 (Q4 8:54) — 8-B.McManus extra point is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.; Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the DEN 37 (Q4 6:18) — (6:18) 4-A.Vinatieri 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Denver Broncos (Q4 6:06) — (6:06) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep right intended for 88-D.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 20-D.Butler [54-D.Parry] at DEN 49. 20-D.Butler to DEN 49 for no gain (88-D.Thomas). [WPA -16.8% · EPA -4.45]
• Denver Broncos (Q3 26:37) — (11:37) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep middle to 10-E.Sanders for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +16.5% · EPA +7.24]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q3 15:59) — (:59) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep left to 17-G.Whalen to DEN 13 for 38 yards (43-T.Ward). [WPA +14.7% · EPA +3.49]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 14:09) — (14:09) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 44-A.Bradshaw for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +13.9% · EPA +2.58]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q1 53:50) — (8:50) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep left to 13-T.Hilton to DEN 35 for 28 yards (43-T.Ward) [58-V.Miller]. DEN-25-C.Harris was injured during the play. PENALTY on DEN-43-T.Ward, Unnecessary Roughness, [WPA +12.1% · EPA +3.84]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Denver Broncos (Q3 26:37) — (11:37) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep middle to 10-E.Sanders for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +16.5% · EPA +7.24]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q2 30:15) — (:15) 1-P.McAfee punts 52 yards to DEN 17, Center-45-M.Overton. 31-O.Bolden for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -4.9% · EPA -6.96]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 0:25) — (:25) 12-A.Luck kneels to DEN 2 for -1 yards. [EPA -5.65]
• Denver Broncos (Q4 6:06) — (6:06) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep right intended for 88-D.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 20-D.Butler [54-D.Parry] at DEN 49. 20-D.Butler to DEN 49 for no gain (88-D.Thomas). [WPA -16.8% · EPA -4.45]

Quarterback report card

A.Luck led all passers in efficiency for Indianapolis Colts, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• A.Luck (Indianapolis Colts) · 44 dropbacks · 47.7% completion · -3.3% CPOE · +0.34 EPA/play · +14.95 total EPA
• P.Manning (Denver Broncos) · 38 dropbacks · 55.3% completion · -0.6% CPOE · +0.13 EPA/play · +4.93 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Denver Broncos +0.01, Indianapolis Colts +0.03) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Denver Broncos: 11 drives, +0.76 total EPA, 3 scoring drives
• Indianapolis Colts: 11 drives, +3.33 total EPA, 6 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Indianapolis Colts leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• A. Luck (Indianapolis Colts) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• A. Luck (IND) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q1 51:52 · DEN 7 · Score 0-6
   (6:52) (Run formation) 23-F.Gore up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q1 51:48 · DEN 15 · Score 0-7
   4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
3. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q2 42:17 · DEN 25 · Score 0-10
   (12:17) 4-A.Vinatieri 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
4. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q2 37:18 · DEN 3 · Score 0-16
   (7:18) (Run formation) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 84-J.Doyle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q2 37:12 · DEN 15 · Score 0-17
   4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
6. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q2 30:15 · DEN 69 · Score 6-17
   (:15) 1-P.McAfee punts 52 yards to DEN 17, Center-45-M.Overton. 31-O.Bolden for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7. Denver Broncos XP (+1) — Q2 30:00 · IND 15 · Score 7-17
   8-B.McManus extra point is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
8. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q3 26:37 · IND 64 · Score 13-17
   (11:37) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep middle to 10-E.Sanders for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9. Denver Broncos XP (+1) — Q3 26:27 · IND 15 · Score 14-17
   8-B.McManus extra point is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
10. Denver Broncos FG (+3) — Q3 20:01 · IND 11 · Score 17-17
    (5:01) 8-B.McManus 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
11. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q4 14:09 · DEN 8 · Score 17-23
    (14:09) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 44-A.Bradshaw for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q4 14:05 · DEN 15 · Score 17-24
    4-A.Vinatieri extra point is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
13. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q4 8:58 · IND 1 · Score 23-24
    (8:58) 53-J.Ferentz reported in as eligible. 18-P.Manning pass short middle to 81-O.Daniels for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
14. Denver Broncos XP (+1) — Q4 8:54 · IND 15 · Score 24-24
    8-B.McManus extra point is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
15. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q4 6:18 · DEN 37 · Score 24-27
    (6:18) 4-A.Vinatieri 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.