Denver Broncos vs. Indianapolis Colts: 2003 Week 18 Recap

Game story

In Week 18 of the 2003 NFL season on 2004-01-04, the Indianapolis Colts took care of business against the Denver Broncos, pulling away with a 41–10 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q1 with 17 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

J. Plummer (Denver Broncos) paced the passing game, with -8.00 total EPA.

On the individual side, P. Manning (Indianapolis Colts) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +29.83 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+14.6% win probability) landed in the opening quarter when Indianapolis Colts changed the game: (:36) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass to 88-M.Harrison for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 P. Manning · Indianapolis Colts · Passing · +29.83 total EPA · 26 snaps · +1.15 EPA/play
2. 2 B. Stokley · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +12.80 total EPA · 4 snaps · +3.20 EPA/play
3. 3 M. Harrison · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +12.25 total EPA · 7 snaps · +1.75 EPA/play
4. 4 R. Smith · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +6.54 total EPA · 5 snaps · +1.31 EPA/play
5. 5 J. Plummer · Denver Broncos · Rushing · +5.43 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.81 EPA/play
6. 6 R. Wayne · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +4.80 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.96 EPA/play
7. 7 E. James · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +1.95 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.39 EPA/play
8. 8 A. Lelie · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +1.49 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.49 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Indianapolis Colts — B. Stokley (P. Manning pass) (Q1 57:02)
• Indianapolis Colts — M. Harrison (P. Manning pass) (Q1 45:36)
• Indianapolis Colts — M. Harrison (P. Manning pass) (Q2 37:33)
• Indianapolis Colts — B. Stokley (P. Manning pass) (Q2 32:01)
• Indianapolis Colts — R. Wayne (P. Manning pass) (Q3 20:24)
• Denver Broncos — R. Smith (J. Plummer pass) (Q4 7:11)

Field goals

• Denver Broncos — J. Elam (Q1 48:48)
• Indianapolis Colts — M. Vanderjagt (Q2 30:03)
• Indianapolis Colts — M. Vanderjagt (Q3 15:59)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 14–3. Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the DEN 31 (Q1 57:02) — (12:02) 18-P.Manning pass to 83-B.Stokley for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the DEN 2 (Q1 56:55) — 13-M.Vanderjagt extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.; Denver Broncos connected on a field goal from the IND 30 (Q1 48:48) — (3:48) 1-J.Elam 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-83-M.Leach, Holder-4-M.Knorr.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the DEN 46 (Q1 45:36) — (:36) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass to 88-M.Harrison for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the DEN 2 (Q1 45:24) — 13-M.Vanderjagt extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith..

The second quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 17–0. Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the DEN 23 (Q2 37:33) — (7:33) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass to 88-M.Harrison for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the DEN 2 (Q2 37:28) — 13-M.Vanderjagt extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.; Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the DEN 87 (Q2 32:01) — (2:01) 18-P.Manning pass to 83-B.Stokley for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the DEN 2 (Q2 31:51) — 13-M.Vanderjagt extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.; Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the DEN 9 (Q2 30:03) — (:03) 13-M.Vanderjagt 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith..

The third quarter: Indianapolis Colts won the period 10–0. Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the DEN 7 (Q3 20:24) — (5:24) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass to 87-R.Wayne for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the DEN 2 (Q3 20:19) — 13-M.Vanderjagt extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.; Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the DEN 3 (Q3 15:59) — (:59) 13-M.Vanderjagt 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith..

The fourth quarter: Denver Broncos won the period 7–0. Denver Broncos found the end zone from the IND 7 (Q4 7:11) — (7:11) 16-J.Plummer pass to 80-R.Smith for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Denver Broncos added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q4 7:04) — 1-J.Elam extra point is GOOD, Center-83-M.Leach, Holder-4-M.Knorr..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Indianapolis Colts (Q1 45:36) — (:36) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass to 88-M.Harrison for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +14.6% · EPA +5.29]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q1 57:02) — (12:02) 18-P.Manning pass to 83-B.Stokley for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +6.6% · EPA +2.99]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q1 57:35) — (12:35) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass to 32-E.James ran ob at DEN 31 for 13 yards (35-L.Walls). [WPA +6.6% · EPA +1.32]
• Denver Broncos (Q1 51:57) — (6:57) 16-J.Plummer up the middle to IND 39 for 1 yard (50-D.Thornton, 79-R.Brock). [WPA +5.9% · EPA +2.28]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q1 47:06) — (2:06) 18-P.Manning pass to 88-M.Harrison to DEN 48 for 12 yards (28-K.Kennedy). [WPA +5.5% · EPA +1.72]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Indianapolis Colts (Q2 32:01) — (2:01) 18-P.Manning pass to 83-B.Stokley for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +4.9% · EPA +6.54]
• Denver Broncos (Q3 19:46) — (4:46) 16-J.Plummer sacked at DEN 20 for -8 yards (93-D.Freeney). FUMBLES (93-D.Freeney), touched at DEN 28, RECOVERED by IND-94-R.Morris at DEN 20. 94-R.Morris to DEN 20 for no gain (85-A.Lelie). IND [WPA -0.1% · EPA -5.29]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q1 45:36) — (:36) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass to 88-M.Harrison for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +14.6% · EPA +5.29]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q4 13:30) — (13:30) 32-E.James up the middle to DEN 38 for no gain (68-M.Fatafehi). FUMBLES (68-M.Fatafehi), RECOVERED by DEN-98-R.Hayward at DEN 38. 98-R.Hayward to DEN 38 for no gain (71-R.Diem). [WPA +0.0% · EPA -4.65]

Quarterback report card

J.Plummer led all passers in efficiency for Denver Broncos, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• J.Plummer (Denver Broncos) · 35 dropbacks · 65.7% completion · -0.23 EPA/play · -8.00 total EPA
• P.Manning (Indianapolis Colts) · 26 dropbacks · 84.6% completion · +1.15 EPA/play · +29.83 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Indianapolis Colts held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.37 vs -0.07), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Denver Broncos: 9 drives, -5.93 total EPA, 2 scoring drives
• Indianapolis Colts: 9 drives, +23.86 total EPA, 7 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Indianapolis Colts leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• P. Manning (Indianapolis Colts) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q1 57:02 · DEN 31 · Score 0-6
   (12:02) 18-P.Manning pass to 83-B.Stokley for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q1 56:55 · DEN 2 · Score 0-7
   13-M.Vanderjagt extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
3. Denver Broncos FG (+3) — Q1 48:48 · IND 30 · Score 3-7
   (3:48) 1-J.Elam 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-83-M.Leach, Holder-4-M.Knorr.
4. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q1 45:36 · DEN 46 · Score 3-13
   (:36) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass to 88-M.Harrison for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q1 45:24 · DEN 2 · Score 3-14
   13-M.Vanderjagt extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
6. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q2 37:33 · DEN 23 · Score 3-20
   (7:33) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass to 88-M.Harrison for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q2 37:28 · DEN 2 · Score 3-21
   13-M.Vanderjagt extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
8. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q2 32:01 · DEN 87 · Score 3-27
   (2:01) 18-P.Manning pass to 83-B.Stokley for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q2 31:51 · DEN 2 · Score 3-28
   13-M.Vanderjagt extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
10. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q2 30:03 · DEN 9 · Score 3-31
    (:03) 13-M.Vanderjagt 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
11. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q3 20:24 · DEN 7 · Score 3-37
    (5:24) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass to 87-R.Wayne for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q3 20:19 · DEN 2 · Score 3-38
    13-M.Vanderjagt extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
13. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q3 15:59 · DEN 3 · Score 3-41
    (:59) 13-M.Vanderjagt 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
14. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q4 7:11 · IND 7 · Score 9-41
    (7:11) 16-J.Plummer pass to 80-R.Smith for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15. Denver Broncos XP (+1) — Q4 7:04 · IND 2 · Score 10-41
    1-J.Elam extra point is GOOD, Center-83-M.Leach, Holder-4-M.Knorr.