Denver Broncos vs. Indianapolis Colts: 2003 Week 16 Recap

Game story

In Week 16 of the 2003 NFL season on 2003-12-21, the Denver Broncos took care of business against the Indianapolis Colts, pulling away with a 31–17 final that built a comfortable lead.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 24 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

P. Manning (Indianapolis Colts) paced the passing game, with -6.36 total EPA.

On the individual side, J. Plummer (Denver Broncos) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +18.37 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-15.5% win probability) landed in the opening quarter when Denver Broncos changed the game: (13:08) 16-J.Plummer pass intended for 22-Q.Griffin INTERCEPTED by 58-G.Brackett at DEN 31. 58-G.Brackett for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 J. Plummer · Denver Broncos · Passing · +18.37 total EPA · 19 snaps · +0.97 EPA/play
2. 2 A. Lelie · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +10.38 total EPA · 5 snaps · +2.08 EPA/play
3. 3 R. Smith · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +5.72 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.43 EPA/play
4. 4 Q. Griffin · Denver Broncos · Rushing · +4.38 total EPA · 28 snaps · +0.16 EPA/play
5. 5 Q. Griffin · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +3.18 total EPA · 1 snaps · +3.18 EPA/play
6. 6 S. Sharpe · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +2.96 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.48 EPA/play
7. 7 M. Harrison · Indianapolis Colts · Receiving · +2.90 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.48 EPA/play
8. 8 E. McCaffrey · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +2.68 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.68 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Indianapolis Colts — G. Brackett (Q1 58:08)
• Denver Broncos — M. Anderson (Q1 54:59)
• Denver Broncos — J. Plummer (Q1 47:11)
• Indianapolis Colts — E. James (Q2 44:16)
• Denver Broncos — J. Plummer (Q2 36:22)
• Denver Broncos — R. Smith (J. Plummer pass) (Q2 31:18)

Field goals

• Indianapolis Colts — M. Vanderjagt (Q2 30:08)
• Denver Broncos — J. Elam (Q4 4:30)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Denver Broncos won the period 14–7. Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the IND 70 (Q1 58:08) — (13:08) 16-J.Plummer pass intended for 22-Q.Griffin INTERCEPTED by 58-G.Brackett at DEN 31. 58-G.Brackett for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the DEN 2 (Q1 57:59) — 13-M.Vanderjagt extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.; Denver Broncos found the end zone from the IND 2 (Q1 54:59) — (9:59) 38-M.Anderson right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Denver Broncos added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q1 54:55) — 1-J.Elam extra point is GOOD, Center-83-M.Leach, Holder-4-M.Knorr.; Denver Broncos found the end zone from the IND 6 (Q1 47:11) — (2:11) 16-J.Plummer up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Denver Broncos added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q1 47:06) — 1-J.Elam extra point is GOOD, Center-83-M.Leach, Holder-4-M.Knorr..

The second quarter: Denver Broncos won the period 14–10. Indianapolis Colts found the end zone from the DEN 16 (Q2 44:16) — (14:16) (Shotgun) 32-E.James right end for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Indianapolis Colts added 1 points from the DEN 2 (Q2 44:10) — 13-M.Vanderjagt extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.; Denver Broncos found the end zone from the IND 1 (Q2 36:22) — (6:22) 16-J.Plummer up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Denver Broncos added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q2 36:20) — 1-J.Elam extra point is GOOD, Center-83-M.Leach, Holder-4-M.Knorr.; Denver Broncos found the end zone from the IND 15 (Q2 31:18) — (1:18) 16-J.Plummer pass to 80-R.Smith for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Denver Broncos added 1 points from the IND 2 (Q2 31:11) — 1-J.Elam extra point is GOOD, Center-83-M.Leach, Holder-4-M.Knorr.; Indianapolis Colts connected on a field goal from the DEN 22 (Q2 30:08) — (:08) 13-M.Vanderjagt 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith..

The fourth quarter: Denver Broncos won the period 3–0. Denver Broncos connected on a field goal from the IND 6 (Q4 4:30) — (4:30) 1-J.Elam 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-83-M.Leach, Holder-4-M.Knorr..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Denver Broncos (Q1 58:08) — (13:08) 16-J.Plummer pass intended for 22-Q.Griffin INTERCEPTED by 58-G.Brackett at DEN 31. 58-G.Brackett for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -15.5% · EPA -6.56]
• Denver Broncos (Q1 49:47) — (4:47) 16-J.Plummer pass to 22-Q.Griffin to IND 3 for 24 yards (27-D.Macklin, 21-W.Harris). [WPA +10.3% · EPA +3.18]
• Indianapolis Colts (Q2 44:16) — (14:16) (Shotgun) 32-E.James right end for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +10.1% · EPA +2.48]
• Denver Broncos (Q1 52:10) — (7:10) 16-J.Plummer pass to 84-S.Sharpe pushed ob at IND 28 for 26 yards (30-D.Strickland). [WPA +10.0% · EPA +2.48]
• Denver Broncos (Q2 40:43) — (10:43) 16-J.Plummer pass to 85-A.Lelie to IND 30 for 19 yards (27-D.Macklin). [WPA +8.5% · EPA +2.30]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Denver Broncos (Q1 58:08) — (13:08) 16-J.Plummer pass intended for 22-Q.Griffin INTERCEPTED by 58-G.Brackett at DEN 31. 58-G.Brackett for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -15.5% · EPA -6.56]
• Denver Broncos (Q4 0:29) — (:29) 16-J.Plummer kneels to IND 6 for -1 yards. [EPA -4.55]
• Denver Broncos (Q1 57:53) — (12:53) 16-J.Plummer pass to 85-A.Lelie to IND 15 for 60 yards (30-D.Strickland, 21-W.Harris). DEN - Lelie (85) injured on play. [WPA +7.5% · EPA +4.45]
• Denver Broncos (Q3 15:14) — (:14) 38-M.Anderson left tackle to IND 1 for no gain (53-M.Washington, 92-C.Bratzke). [WPA -4.2% · EPA -4.08]

Quarterback report card

P.Manning led all passers in efficiency for Indianapolis Colts, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• P.Manning (Indianapolis Colts) · 28 dropbacks · 42.9% completion · -0.23 EPA/play · -6.36 total EPA
• J.Plummer (Denver Broncos) · 19 dropbacks · 73.7% completion · +0.97 EPA/play · +18.37 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Denver Broncos generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.15 vs -0.10), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Denver Broncos: 10 drives, +13.58 total EPA, 6 scoring drives
• Indianapolis Colts: 9 drives, -5.66 total EPA, 2 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Denver Broncos leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• J. Plummer (Denver Broncos) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q1 58:08 · IND 70 · Score 0-6
   (13:08) 16-J.Plummer pass intended for 22-Q.Griffin INTERCEPTED by 58-G.Brackett at DEN 31. 58-G.Brackett for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q1 57:59 · DEN 2 · Score 0-7
   13-M.Vanderjagt extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
3. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q1 54:59 · IND 2 · Score 6-7
   (9:59) 38-M.Anderson right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Denver Broncos XP (+1) — Q1 54:55 · IND 2 · Score 7-7
   1-J.Elam extra point is GOOD, Center-83-M.Leach, Holder-4-M.Knorr.
5. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q1 47:11 · IND 6 · Score 13-7
   (2:11) 16-J.Plummer up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Denver Broncos XP (+1) — Q1 47:06 · IND 2 · Score 14-7
   1-J.Elam extra point is GOOD, Center-83-M.Leach, Holder-4-M.Knorr.
7. Indianapolis Colts TD (+6) — Q2 44:16 · DEN 16 · Score 14-13
   (14:16) (Shotgun) 32-E.James right end for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8. Indianapolis Colts XP (+1) — Q2 44:10 · DEN 2 · Score 14-14
   13-M.Vanderjagt extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
9. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q2 36:22 · IND 1 · Score 20-14
   (6:22) 16-J.Plummer up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
10. Denver Broncos XP (+1) — Q2 36:20 · IND 2 · Score 21-14
    1-J.Elam extra point is GOOD, Center-83-M.Leach, Holder-4-M.Knorr.
11. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q2 31:18 · IND 15 · Score 27-14
    (1:18) 16-J.Plummer pass to 80-R.Smith for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12. Denver Broncos XP (+1) — Q2 31:11 · IND 2 · Score 28-14
    1-J.Elam extra point is GOOD, Center-83-M.Leach, Holder-4-M.Knorr.
13. Indianapolis Colts FG (+3) — Q2 30:08 · DEN 22 · Score 28-17
    (:08) 13-M.Vanderjagt 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-17-H.Smith.
14. Denver Broncos FG (+3) — Q4 4:30 · IND 6 · Score 31-17
    (4:30) 1-J.Elam 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-83-M.Leach, Holder-4-M.Knorr.