Denver Broncos vs. Carolina Panthers: 2012 Week 10 Recap

Game story

In Week 10 of the 2012 NFL season on 2012-11-11, the Denver Broncos took care of business against the Carolina Panthers, pulling away with a 36–14 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 19 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

C. Newton (Carolina Panthers) paced the passing game, with -14.90 total EPA, and -7.1% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, G. Olsen (Carolina Panthers) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +8.61 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-14.1% win probability) landed in the third quarter when Carolina Panthers changed the game: (10:12) 1-C.Newton pass short left intended for 11-B.LaFell INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Carter at CAR 40. 32-T.Carter for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 G. Olsen · Carolina Panthers · Receiving · +8.61 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.86 EPA/play
2. 2 D. Thomas · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +8.47 total EPA · 11 snaps · +0.77 EPA/play
3. 3 B. Stokley · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +5.41 total EPA · 5 snaps · +1.08 EPA/play
4. 4 P. Manning · Denver Broncos · Passing · +5.32 total EPA · 42 snaps · +0.13 EPA/play
5. 5 M. Tolbert · Carolina Panthers · Receiving · +1.94 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.97 EPA/play
6. 6 W. McGahee · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +1.14 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.19 EPA/play
7. 7 J. Dreessen · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +0.95 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.32 EPA/play
8. 8 D. Williams · Carolina Panthers · Receiving · +0.84 total EPA · 1 snaps · +0.84 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Carolina Panthers — G. Olsen (C. Newton pass) (Q1 51:55)
• Denver Broncos — B. Stokley (P. Manning pass) (Q1 46:39)
• Denver Broncos — T. Holliday (Q2 45:00)
• Denver Broncos — T. Carter (Q3 25:12)
• Carolina Panthers — G. Olsen (C. Newton pass) (Q4 5:14)
• Denver Broncos — R. Hillman (Q4 3:30)

Field goals

• Denver Broncos — M. Prater (Q2 40:17)
• Denver Broncos — M. Prater (Q4 14:20)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the DEN 4 (Q1 51:55) — (6:55) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 88-G.Olsen for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Carolina Panthers added 1 points from the DEN 2 (Q1 51:46) — 6-J.Medlock extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.; Denver Broncos found the end zone from the CAR 10 (Q1 46:39) — (1:39) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 14-B.Stokley for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Denver Broncos added 1 points from the CAR 2 (Q1 46:32) — 5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt..

The second quarter: Denver Broncos won the period 10–0. Denver Broncos found the end zone from the DEN 83 (Q2 45:00) — (15:00) 8-B.Nortman punts 59 yards to DEN 24, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-T.Holliday for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Denver Broncos added 1 points from the CAR 2 (Q2 44:40) — 5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.; Denver Broncos connected on a field goal from the CAR 35 (Q2 40:17) — (10:17) 5-M.Prater 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt..

The third quarter: Denver Broncos won the period 7–0. Denver Broncos found the end zone from the DEN 66 (Q3 25:12) — (10:12) 1-C.Newton pass short left intended for 11-B.LaFell INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Carter at CAR 40. 32-T.Carter for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Denver Broncos added 1 points from the CAR 2 (Q3 24:59) — 5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt..

The fourth quarter: Denver Broncos won the period 12–7. Denver Broncos connected on a field goal from the CAR 8 (Q4 14:20) — (14:20) 5-M.Prater 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.; Denver Broncos registered a safety from the DEN 98 (Q4 10:39) — (10:39) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton sacked in End Zone for -2 yards, SAFETY (20-M.Adams).; Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the DEN 5 (Q4 5:14) — (5:14) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 88-G.Olsen for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Carolina Panthers added 1 points from the DEN 2 (Q4 5:09) — 6-J.Medlock extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.; Denver Broncos found the end zone from the CAR 5 (Q4 3:30) — (3:30) 21-R.Hillman left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Denver Broncos added 1 points from the CAR 2 (Q4 3:23) — 5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Carolina Panthers (Q3 25:12) — (10:12) 1-C.Newton pass short left intended for 11-B.LaFell INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Carter at CAR 40. 32-T.Carter for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -14.1% · EPA -8.82]
• Carolina Panthers (Q2 45:00) — (15:00) 8-B.Nortman punts 59 yards to DEN 24, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-T.Holliday for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -12.3% · EPA -4.95]
• Denver Broncos (Q3 25:21) — (10:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-P.Manning sacked at CAR 33 for -5 yards (95-C.Johnson). FUMBLES (95-C.Johnson) [95-C.Johnson], RECOVERED by CAR-76-G.Hardy at CAR 34. 76-G.Hardy to CAR 34 for no gain ( [WPA -10.2% · EPA -5.67]
• Denver Broncos (Q2 32:00) — (2:00) 5-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. [WPA -7.8% · EPA -3.42]
• Carolina Panthers (Q1 53:48) — (8:48) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 35-M.Tolbert to DEN 23 for 26 yards (20-M.Adams; 57-K.Brooking). [WPA +7.6% · EPA +1.57]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Carolina Panthers (Q3 25:12) — (10:12) 1-C.Newton pass short left intended for 11-B.LaFell INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Carter at CAR 40. 32-T.Carter for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -14.1% · EPA -8.82]
• Denver Broncos (Q3 25:21) — (10:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-P.Manning sacked at CAR 33 for -5 yards (95-C.Johnson). FUMBLES (95-C.Johnson) [95-C.Johnson], RECOVERED by CAR-76-G.Hardy at CAR 34. 76-G.Hardy to CAR 34 for no gain ( [WPA -10.2% · EPA -5.67]
• Carolina Panthers (Q2 45:00) — (15:00) 8-B.Nortman punts 59 yards to DEN 24, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-T.Holliday for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -12.3% · EPA -4.95]
• Denver Broncos (Q4 3:36) — (3:36) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep right to 88-D.Thomas to CAR 5 for 46 yards (30-C.Godfrey). [WPA +0.1% · EPA +4.54]

Quarterback report card

C.Newton led all passers in efficiency for Carolina Panthers, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• C.Newton (Carolina Panthers) · 51 dropbacks · 41.2% completion · -7.1% CPOE · -0.29 EPA/play · -14.90 total EPA
• P.Manning (Denver Broncos) · 42 dropbacks · 64.3% completion · +8.5% CPOE · +0.13 EPA/play · +5.32 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Denver Broncos generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.02 vs -0.27), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Carolina Panthers: 15 drives, -25.03 total EPA, 5 scoring drives
• Denver Broncos: 16 drives, +1.28 total EPA, 4 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Denver Broncos leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• G. Olsen (Carolina Panthers) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• C. Newton (CAR) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.
• P. Manning (DEN) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q1 51:55 · DEN 4 · Score 0-6
   (6:55) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 88-G.Olsen for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Carolina Panthers XP (+1) — Q1 51:46 · DEN 2 · Score 0-7
   6-J.Medlock extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.
3. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q1 46:39 · CAR 10 · Score 6-7
   (1:39) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 14-B.Stokley for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Denver Broncos XP (+1) — Q1 46:32 · CAR 2 · Score 7-7
   5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
5. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q2 45:00 · DEN 83 · Score 13-7
   (15:00) 8-B.Nortman punts 59 yards to DEN 24, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-T.Holliday for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Denver Broncos XP (+1) — Q2 44:40 · CAR 2 · Score 14-7
   5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
7. Denver Broncos FG (+3) — Q2 40:17 · CAR 35 · Score 17-7
   (10:17) 5-M.Prater 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
8. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q3 25:12 · DEN 66 · Score 23-7
   (10:12) 1-C.Newton pass short left intended for 11-B.LaFell INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Carter at CAR 40. 32-T.Carter for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9. Denver Broncos XP (+1) — Q3 24:59 · CAR 2 · Score 24-7
   5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
10. Denver Broncos FG (+3) — Q4 14:20 · CAR 8 · Score 27-7
    (14:20) 5-M.Prater 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
11. Denver Broncos Safety (+2) — Q4 10:39 · DEN 98 · Score 29-7
    (10:39) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton sacked in End Zone for -2 yards, SAFETY (20-M.Adams).
12. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q4 5:14 · DEN 5 · Score 29-13
    (5:14) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 88-G.Olsen for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13. Carolina Panthers XP (+1) — Q4 5:09 · DEN 2 · Score 29-14
    6-J.Medlock extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.
14. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q4 3:30 · CAR 5 · Score 35-14
    (3:30) 21-R.Hillman left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15. Denver Broncos XP (+1) — Q4 3:23 · CAR 2 · Score 36-14
    5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.