Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills: 2011 Week 16 Recap

Game story

In Week 16 of the 2011 NFL season on 2011-12-24, the Buffalo Bills took care of business against the Denver Broncos, pulling away with a 40–14 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 17 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

T. Tebow (Denver Broncos) paced the passing game, with -19.78 total EPA, and -7.6% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, St. Johnson (Buffalo Bills) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +3.92 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-21.3% win probability) landed in the second quarter when Denver Broncos changed the game: (4:23) 4-B.Colquitt punts 50 yards to BUF 20, Center-66-L.Paxton. 21-L.McKelvin for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Key block: D.Nelson. L.McKelvin has 118 PR yds. in game, 2nd highest in Bills history. The Repl

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 St. Johnson · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +3.92 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.56 EPA/play
2. 2 C. Spiller · Buffalo Bills · Rushing · +3.27 total EPA · 17 snaps · +0.19 EPA/play
3. 3 D. Rosario · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +3.10 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.55 EPA/play
4. 4 T. Tebow · Denver Broncos · Rushing · +2.44 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.41 EPA/play
5. 5 D. Fells · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +1.86 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.93 EPA/play
6. 6 J. Johnson · Denver Broncos · Receiving · +1.69 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.85 EPA/play
7. 7 K. Brock · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +1.22 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.22 EPA/play
8. 8 C. Spiller · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +1.11 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.37 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Denver Broncos — T. Tebow (Q1 52:18)
• Buffalo Bills — L. McKelvin (Q2 34:23)
• Buffalo Bills — C. Spiller (Q2 30:23)
• Denver Broncos — D. Fells (T. Tebow pass) (Q3 26:46)
• Buffalo Bills — J. Byrd (Q4 8:14)
• Buffalo Bills — T. Tebow (Q4 7:55)

Field goals

• Buffalo Bills — D. Rayner (Q2 36:10)
• Buffalo Bills — D. Rayner (Q3 21:23)
• Buffalo Bills — D. Rayner (Q3 17:35)
• Buffalo Bills — D. Rayner (Q4 13:30)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Denver Broncos won the period 7–0. Denver Broncos found the end zone from the BUF 1 (Q1 52:18) — (7:18) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Denver Broncos added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q1 52:13).

The second quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 17–0. Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the DEN 10 (Q2 36:10) — (6:10) 3-D.Rayner 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the BUF 70 (Q2 34:23); Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the DEN 2 (Q2 34:05) — 3-D.Rayner extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the DEN 4 (Q2 30:23) — (:23) (Shotgun) 28-C.Spiller right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the DEN 2 (Q2 30:19) — 3-D.Rayner extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman..

The third quarter: Denver Broncos won the period 7–6. Denver Broncos found the end zone from the BUF 17 (Q3 26:46) — (11:46) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow pass deep middle to 86-D.Fells for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 4 yds. into end zone.; Denver Broncos added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q3 26:42) — 5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the DEN 7 (Q3 21:23) — (6:23) 3-D.Rayner 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the DEN 7 (Q3 17:35) — (2:35) 3-D.Rayner 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman..

The fourth quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 17–0. Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the DEN 11 (Q4 13:30) — (13:30) 3-D.Rayner 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the BUF 90 (Q4 8:14) — (8:14) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow pass deep left intended for 87-E.Decker INTERCEPTED by 31-J.Byrd at DEN 37. 31-J.Byrd for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the DEN 2 (Q4 8:03) — 3-D.Rayner extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the BUF 75 (Q4 7:55); Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the DEN 2 (Q4 7:45) — 3-D.Rayner extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Denver Broncos (Q2 34:23) — (4:23) 4-B.Colquitt punts 50 yards to BUF 20, Center-66-L.Paxton. 21-L.McKelvin for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Key block: D.Nelson. L.McKelvin has 118 PR yds. in game, 2nd highest in Bills history. The Repl [WPA -21.3% · EPA -6.34]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 38:14) — (8:14) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 13-St.Johnson pushed ob at DEN 12 for 55 yards (24-C.Bailey). Caught at BUF 44, slanting from left. [WPA +12.2% · EPA +4.45]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 50:08) — (5:08) 3-D.Rayner 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman. [WPA -7.9% · EPA -2.79]
• Denver Broncos (Q1 57:20) — (12:20) (Shotgun) 23-W.McGahee up the middle to BUF 49 for 24 yards (31-J.Byrd). [WPA +7.0% · EPA +2.18]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 36:17) — (6:17) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass incomplete short left to 86-D.Nelson. Pass tipped in back of end zone, receiver crossing from middle. [WPA -6.6% · EPA -1.44]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Denver Broncos (Q4 7:55) — (7:55) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow sacked at DEN 16 for -9 yards (90-C.Kelsay). FUMBLES (90-C.Kelsay) [90-C.Kelsay], RECOVERED by BUF-91-Sp.Johnson at DEN 17. 91-Sp.Johnson for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -0.7% · EPA -7.76]
• Denver Broncos (Q4 8:14) — (8:14) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow pass deep left intended for 87-E.Decker INTERCEPTED by 31-J.Byrd at DEN 37. 31-J.Byrd for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -2.5% · EPA -6.66]
• Denver Broncos (Q2 34:23) — (4:23) 4-B.Colquitt punts 50 yards to BUF 20, Center-66-L.Paxton. 21-L.McKelvin for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Key block: D.Nelson. L.McKelvin has 118 PR yds. in game, 2nd highest in Bills history. The Repl [WPA -21.3% · EPA -6.34]
• Denver Broncos (Q4 3:45) — (3:45) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow pass deep right intended for 19-E.Royal INTERCEPTED by 23-A.Williams at BUF 0. Touchback. Coverage in rear corner of end zone. [WPA -0.0% · EPA -4.84]

Quarterback report card

T.Tebow led all passers in efficiency for Denver Broncos, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• T.Tebow (Denver Broncos) · 40 dropbacks · 32.5% completion · -7.6% CPOE · -0.49 EPA/play · -19.78 total EPA
• R.Fitzpatrick (Buffalo Bills) · 31 dropbacks · 48.4% completion · -8.9% CPOE · +0.00 EPA/play · +0.07 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Buffalo Bills held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (-0.02 vs -0.29), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Buffalo Bills: 15 drives, -1.41 total EPA, 6 scoring drives
• Denver Broncos: 15 drives, -27.14 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Buffalo Bills leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• St. Johnson (Buffalo Bills) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• T. Tebow (DEN) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.
• R. Fitzpatrick (BUF) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q1 52:18 · BUF 1 · Score 6-0
   (7:18) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Denver Broncos XP (+1) — Q1 52:13 · BUF 2 · Score 7-0
   5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. PENALTY on BUF-21-L.McKelvin, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced between downs.
3. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q2 36:10 · DEN 10 · Score 7-3
   (6:10) 3-D.Rayner 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
4. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 34:23 · BUF 70 · Score 7-9
   (4:23) 4-B.Colquitt punts 50 yards to BUF 20, Center-66-L.Paxton. 21-L.McKelvin for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Key block: D.Nelson. L.McKelvin has 118 PR yds. in game
5. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 34:05 · DEN 2 · Score 7-10
   3-D.Rayner extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
6. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 30:23 · DEN 4 · Score 7-16
   (:23) (Shotgun) 28-C.Spiller right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 30:19 · DEN 2 · Score 7-17
   3-D.Rayner extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
8. Denver Broncos TD (+6) — Q3 26:46 · BUF 17 · Score 13-17
   (11:46) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow pass deep middle to 86-D.Fells for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 4 yds. into end zone.
9. Denver Broncos XP (+1) — Q3 26:42 · BUF 2 · Score 14-17
   5-M.Prater extra point is GOOD, Center-66-L.Paxton, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
10. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q3 21:23 · DEN 7 · Score 14-20
    (6:23) 3-D.Rayner 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
11. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q3 17:35 · DEN 7 · Score 14-23
    (2:35) 3-D.Rayner 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
12. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q4 13:30 · DEN 11 · Score 14-26
    (13:30) 3-D.Rayner 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
13. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q4 8:14 · BUF 90 · Score 14-32
    (8:14) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow pass deep left intended for 87-E.Decker INTERCEPTED by 31-J.Byrd at DEN 37. 31-J.Byrd for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q4 8:03 · DEN 2 · Score 14-33
    3-D.Rayner extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
15. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q4 7:55 · BUF 75 · Score 14-39
    (7:55) (Shotgun) 15-T.Tebow sacked at DEN 16 for -9 yards (90-C.Kelsay). FUMBLES (90-C.Kelsay) [90-C.Kelsay], RECOVERED by BUF-91-Sp.Johnson at DEN 17. 91-Sp.Jo
16. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q4 7:45 · DEN 2 · Score 14-40
    3-D.Rayner extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.