FantasyHQ · Game Recap

NFL · Week 15 · December 17, 2023 · 11 min read

Dallas Cowboys vs. Buffalo Bills: 2023 Week 15 Recap

Bills defeat Cowboys 31–10 in Week 15

James Cook III led Fantasy Impact as Bills prevailed in a 10–31 Week 15 finish.

Dallas Cowboys 10 10–4
Final 10–31
Buffalo Bills 31 8–6 Winner
Winner
Buffalo Bills
Final score
10–31
Halftime
Dallas Cowboys 3–21 Buffalo Bills
Top passer
Dak Prescott
FantasyHQ MVP
James Cook III
Game date
December 17, 2023

Top fantasy performers · Cowboys

  • CeeDee Lamb
    CeeDee Lamb 7 REC · 53 YDS +1.7 Fantasy Impact
  • Jake Ferguson
    Jake Ferguson 6 REC · 44 YDS +1.3 Fantasy Impact
  • Michael Gallup
    Michael Gallup 1 REC · 9 YDS +0.8 Fantasy Impact

Top fantasy performers · Bills

  • James Cook III
    James Cook III 25 CAR · 179 YDS · 1 TD +8.3 Fantasy Impact
  • Jonathan Allen
    Jonathan Allen 7/21 · 102 YDS · 1 TD +4.5 Fantasy Impact
  • Stefon Diggs
    Stefon Diggs 4 REC · 48 YDS +3.3 Fantasy Impact

Game story

The Buffalo Bills defeated the Dallas Cowboys 31–10 in Week 15 of the 2023 NFL season on 2023-12-17, a matchup that controlled the game from start to finish. The decisive swing (+9.2% win probability) came in the opening quarter when Buffalo Bills swung the momentum.

In Week 15 of the 2023 NFL season on 2023-12-17, the Buffalo Bills took care of business against the Dallas Cowboys, pulling away with a 31–10 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 17 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

D. Prescott (Dallas Cowboys) paced the passing game, with -6.51 total EPA, and -4.1% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, J. Cook (Buffalo Bills) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +8.34 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+9.2% win probability) landed in the opening quarter when Buffalo Bills changed the game: (:25) 8-S.Martin punts 46 yards to DAL 28, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 24 for -4 yards (25-T.Dodson). PENALTY on DAL-54-S.Williams, Roughing the Kicker, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 26 - No P

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Q1Q2Q3Q4T
Dallas Cowboys0307010
Buffalo Bills71437031

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

  1. 1 J. Cook · Buffalo Bills · Rushing · +8.34 total EPA · 25 snaps · +0.33 EPA/play
  2. 2 J. Allen · Buffalo Bills · Passing · +4.50 total EPA · 21 snaps · +0.21 EPA/play
  3. 3 S. Diggs · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +3.30 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.66 EPA/play
  4. 4 J. Cook · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +2.51 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.84 EPA/play
  5. 5 T. Johnson · Buffalo Bills · Rushing · +2.50 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.28 EPA/play
  6. 6 J. Allen · Buffalo Bills · Rushing · +1.91 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.38 EPA/play
  7. 7 C. Lamb · Dallas Cowboys · Receiving · +1.70 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.17 EPA/play
  8. 8 C. Lamb · Dallas Cowboys · Rushing · +1.61 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.61 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

J. Cook — BUF · Rushing

J. Cook posted the highest total EPA (+8.34) in the game, making the biggest overall impact on Buffalo Bills's efficiency. Across 25 counted snaps, they averaged +0.33 EPA per play.

The signature play (+3.66 EPA) came from Buffalo Bills: (:25) 8-S.Martin punts 46 yards to DAL 28, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 24 for -4 yards (25-T.Dodson). PENALTY on DAL-54-S.Williams, Roughing the Kicker, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 26 - No Play.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

  • Buffalo Bills — L. Murray (Q1 53:18)
  • Buffalo Bills — J. Cook (J. Allen pass) (Q2 42:57)
  • Buffalo Bills — J. Allen (Q2 31:39)
  • Buffalo Bills — J. Cook (Q4 12:36)
  • Dallas Cowboys — C. Lamb (Q4 2:53)

Field goals

  • Dallas Cowboys — B. Aubrey (Q2 37:16)
  • Buffalo Bills — T. Bass (Q3 17:39)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 7–0. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the DAL 2 (Q1 53:18) — (8:18) 28-L.Murray left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the DAL 15 (Q1 53:06) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin..

The second quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 14–3. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the DAL 18 (Q2 42:57) — (12:57) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 4-J.Cook for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the DAL 15 (Q2 42:52) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.; Dallas Cowboys connected on a field goal from the BUF 14 (Q2 37:16) — (7:16) 17-B.Aubrey 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the DAL 1 (Q2 31:39) — (1:39) 17-J.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the DAL 15 (Q2 31:36) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin..

The third quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 3–0. Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the DAL 5 (Q3 17:39) — (2:39) 2-T.Bass 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin..

The fourth quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the DAL 24 (Q4 12:36) — (12:36) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook right guard for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the DAL 15 (Q4 12:30) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.; Dallas Cowboys found the end zone from the BUF 3 (Q4 2:53) — (2:53) (No Huddle) 88-C.Lamb right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Dallas Cowboys added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q4 2:48) — 17-B.Aubrey extra point is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

  • Buffalo Bills (Q1 45:25) — (:25) 8-S.Martin punts 46 yards to DAL 28, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 24 for -4 yards (25-T.Dodson). PENALTY on DAL-54-S.Williams, Roughing the Kicker, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 26 - No P [WPA +9.2% · EPA +3.66]
  • Dallas Cowboys (Q1 52:25) — (7:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles right end to DAL 42 for 13 yards (20-T.Rapp). Penalty on BUF-20-T.Rapp, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on DAL-70-Z.Martin, Unnecessary Roughness, of [WPA +4.7% · EPA +1.91]
  • Buffalo Bills (Q1 56:35) — (11:35) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 14-S.Diggs to DAL 22 for 18 yards (21-S.Gilmore). [WPA +4.5% · EPA +1.19]
  • Buffalo Bills (Q1 48:15) — (3:15) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 14-S.Diggs (21-S.Gilmore). [WPA -4.2% · EPA -1.59]
  • Buffalo Bills (Q1 54:00) — (9:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 14-S.Diggs. PENALTY on DAL-90-D.Lawrence, Roughing the Passer, 3 yards, enforced at DAL 6 - No Play. [WPA +4.0% · EPA +1.64]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

  • Buffalo Bills (Q1 45:25) — (:25) 8-S.Martin punts 46 yards to DAL 28, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 24 for -4 yards (25-T.Dodson). PENALTY on DAL-54-S.Williams, Roughing the Kicker, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 26 - No P [WPA +9.2% · EPA +3.66]
  • Dallas Cowboys (Q3 26:50) — (11:50) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL 29 for -10 yards (sack split by 25-T.Dodson and 50-G.Rousseau). [WPA -3.0% · EPA -2.86]
  • Dallas Cowboys (Q4 10:47) — (10:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 3-B.Cooks INTERCEPTED by 47-C.Benford at BUF 40. 47-C.Benford to BUF 48 for 8 yards (73-Tyl.Smith). [WPA -0.0% · EPA -2.55]
  • Buffalo Bills (Q4 13:41) — (13:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 14-S.Diggs to DAL 29 for 17 yards (30-J.Thomas). [WPA +0.4% · EPA +2.46]

Quarterback report card

D.Prescott led all passers in efficiency for Dallas Cowboys, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

  • D.Prescott (Dallas Cowboys) · 41 dropbacks · 51.2% completion · -4.1% CPOE · -0.16 EPA/play · -6.51 total EPA
  • J.Allen (Buffalo Bills) · 21 dropbacks · 33.3% completion · -10.2% CPOE · +0.21 EPA/play · +4.50 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

StatDallas CowboysBuffalo Bills
Offensive EPA/play-0.066+0.227
Offensive success rate42.9%53.1%
Pass EPA/play-0.159+0.214
Rush EPA/play+0.072+0.244
Defensive EPA/play-0.227+0.066
Defensive success rate46.9%57.1%

By the numbers

Buffalo Bills held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.23 vs -0.07), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

  • Buffalo Bills: 9 drives, +18.36 total EPA, 5 scoring drives
  • Dallas Cowboys: 8 drives, -4.60 total EPA, 2 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

  • Buffalo Bills leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
  • J. Cook (Buffalo Bills) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
  • D. Prescott (DAL) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.
  • J. Allen (BUF) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

  1. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q1 53:18 · DAL 2 · Score 0-6
    (8:18) 28-L.Murray left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q1 53:06 · DAL 15 · Score 0-7
    2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
  3. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 42:57 · DAL 18 · Score 0-13
    (12:57) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 4-J.Cook for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 42:52 · DAL 15 · Score 0-14
    2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
  5. Dallas Cowboys FG (+3) — Q2 37:16 · BUF 14 · Score 3-14
    (7:16) 17-B.Aubrey 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
  6. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 31:39 · DAL 1 · Score 3-20
    (1:39) 17-J.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
  7. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 31:36 · DAL 15 · Score 3-21
    2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
  8. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q3 17:39 · DAL 5 · Score 3-24
    (2:39) 2-T.Bass 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
  9. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q4 12:36 · DAL 24 · Score 3-30
    (12:36) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook right guard for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  10. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q4 12:30 · DAL 15 · Score 3-31
    2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
  11. Dallas Cowboys TD (+6) — Q4 2:53 · BUF 3 · Score 9-31
    (2:53) (No Huddle) 88-C.Lamb right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  12. Dallas Cowboys XP (+1) — Q4 2:48 · BUF 15 · Score 10-31
    17-B.Aubrey extra point is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

Frequently asked questions

Who won Dallas Cowboys vs Buffalo Bills?

The Buffalo Bills beat the Dallas Cowboys 31-10 in Week 15, 2023 on 2023-12-17.

What was the final score of Dallas Cowboys vs Buffalo Bills?

The final score was Dallas Cowboys 10, Buffalo Bills 31 (DAL 10-31 BUF) in Week 15, 2023 on 2023-12-17.

What was the score by quarter in Dallas Cowboys vs Buffalo Bills?

Q1: Dallas Cowboys 0, Buffalo Bills 7; Q2: Dallas Cowboys 3, Buffalo Bills 14; Q3: Dallas Cowboys 0, Buffalo Bills 3; Q4: Dallas Cowboys 7, Buffalo Bills 7; Final: Dallas Cowboys 10, Buffalo Bills 31.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals in Dallas Cowboys vs Buffalo Bills?

Buffalo Bills touchdown — L. Murray (Q1 53:18) Buffalo Bills touchdown — J. Cook (J. Allen pass) (Q2 42:57) Buffalo Bills touchdown — J. Allen (Q2 31:39) Buffalo Bills touchdown — J. Cook (Q4 12:36) Dallas Cowboys touchdown — C. Lamb (Q4 2:53) Dallas Cowboys field goal — B. Aubrey (Q2 37:16, 3 pts) Buffalo Bills field goal — T. Bass (Q3 17:39, 3 pts) Extra points followed each touchdown unless noted in the play-by-play.

How did the quarterbacks play in Dallas Cowboys vs Buffalo Bills?

D. Prescott (Dallas Cowboys), 51.2% completion, -4.1% CPOE, -0.16 EPA per dropback, -6.51 total passing EPA. J. Allen (Buffalo Bills), 33.3% completion, -10.2% CPOE, +0.21 EPA per dropback, +4.50 total passing EPA.

Who was the most impactful player in Dallas Cowboys vs Buffalo Bills?

J. Cook (Buffalo Bills) led the game in total EPA with +8.34 on rushing plays. across 25 snaps. The top single-play swing was (+3.66 EPA): (:25) 8-S.Martin punts 46 yards to DAL 28, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 24 for -4 yards (25-T.Dodson). PENALTY on DAL-54-S.Williams, Roughing the Kicker, 15 yards, enfor. The biggest win-probability swing was +9.2%.

Season records after this game

Dallas Cowboys

Entered 10-3 Now 10-4 L

Buffalo Bills

Entered 7-6 Now 8-6 W