Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2024 Week 17 Recap

Game story

In Week 17 of the 2024 NFL season on 2024-12-29, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers took care of business against the Carolina Panthers, pulling away with a 48–14 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 24 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

B. Mayfield (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) paced the passing game, with +26.54 total EPA, and +20.2% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, B. Mayfield (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +26.54 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+8.3% win probability) landed in the opening quarter when Carolina Panthers changed the game: (8:20) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 19-A.Thielen for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 B. Mayfield · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Passing · +26.54 total EPA · 37 snaps · +0.72 EPA/play
2. 2 A. Thielen · Carolina Panthers · Receiving · +9.25 total EPA · 6 snaps · +1.54 EPA/play
3. 3 M. Evans · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +7.95 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.88 EPA/play
4. 4 J. McMillan · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +5.87 total EPA · 5 snaps · +1.17 EPA/play
5. 5 B. Irving · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +5.50 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.38 EPA/play
6. 6 P. Durham · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +4.30 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.43 EPA/play
7. 7 J. Coker · Carolina Panthers · Receiving · +3.46 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.73 EPA/play
8. 8 D. Culp · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Receiving · +3.27 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.82 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — M. Evans (B. Mayfield pass) (Q1 56:38)
• Carolina Panthers — A. Thielen (B. Young pass) (Q1 53:20)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — M. Evans (B. Mayfield pass) (Q2 38:24)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — J. McMillan (B. Mayfield pass) (Q2 31:17)
• Carolina Panthers — A. Thielen (B. Young pass) (Q2 30:56)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — P. Durham (B. Mayfield pass) (Q3 20:52)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — J. Russell (Q3 20:30)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — J. McMillan (B. Mayfield pass) (Q4 13:36)

Field goals

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — C. McLaughlin (Q1 46:16)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers — C. McLaughlin (Q2 40:35)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the period 10–7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the CAR 2 (Q1 56:38) — (11:38) 77-J.Skule reported in as eligible. 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 13-M.Evans for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers added 1 points from the CAR 15 (Q1 56:35) — 4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.; Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the TB 17 (Q1 53:20) — (8:20) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 19-A.Thielen for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Carolina Panthers added 1 points from the TB 15 (Q1 53:15) — 4-E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers connected on a field goal from the CAR 5 (Q1 46:16) — (1:16) 4-C.McLaughlin 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning..

The second quarter: Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the period 17–7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers connected on a field goal from the CAR 16 (Q2 40:35) — (10:35) 4-C.McLaughlin 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the CAR 1 (Q2 38:24) — (8:24) (No Huddle) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 13-M.Evans for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers added 1 points from the CAR 15 (Q2 38:19) — 4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the CAR 10 (Q2 31:17) — (1:17) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 15-J.McMillan for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers added 1 points from the CAR 15 (Q2 31:11) — 4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.; Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the TB 40 (Q2 30:56) — (:56) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep middle to 19-A.Thielen for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Carolina Panthers added 1 points from the TB 15 (Q2 30:50) — 4-E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker..

The third quarter: Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the period 14–0. Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the CAR 5 (Q3 20:52) — (5:52) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 87-P.Durham for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers added 1 points from the CAR 15 (Q3 20:48) — 4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the TB 70 (Q3 20:30); Tampa Bay Buccaneers added 1 points from the CAR 15 (Q3 20:23) — 4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning. ** Injury Update: CAR-94-A.Robinson has returned to the game..

The fourth quarter: Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the period 7–0. Tampa Bay Buccaneers found the end zone from the CAR 16 (Q4 13:36) — (13:36) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 15-J.McMillan for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Tampa Bay Buccaneers added 1 points from the CAR 15 (Q4 13:30) — 4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning. ** Injury Update: CAR-42-S.Franklin has returned to the game..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Carolina Panthers (Q1 53:20) — (8:20) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 19-A.Thielen for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +8.3% · EPA +2.71]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q1 49:12) — (4:12) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 82-D.Culp to CAR 2 for 17 yards (25-X.Woods; 98-D.Wonnum). [WPA +8.1% · EPA +2.56]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q1 51:09) — (6:09) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 82-D.Culp pushed ob at CAR 22 for 26 yards (36-D.Richardson). Penalty on CAR-52-Dj.Johnson, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. [WPA +7.6% · EPA +1.73]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q2 38:56) — (8:56) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 7-B.Irving ran ob at CAR 1 for 42 yards (25-X.Woods). [WPA +7.5% · EPA +3.40]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q1 57:24) — (12:24) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 87-P.Durham to CAR 2 for 31 yards (36-D.Richardson; 25-X.Woods). [WPA +7.1% · EPA +2.34]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Carolina Panthers (Q3 20:30) — (5:30) 10-J.Hekker punt is BLOCKED by 9-J.Tryon, Center-44-J.Jansen, RECOVERED by TB-51-J.Russell at CAR 23. 51-J.Russell for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -1.7% · EPA -5.20]
• Carolina Panthers (Q2 30:56) — (:56) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep middle to 19-A.Thielen for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +0.1% · EPA +4.31]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q2 38:56) — (8:56) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 7-B.Irving ran ob at CAR 1 for 42 yards (25-X.Woods). [WPA +7.5% · EPA +3.40]
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Q4 0:38) — (:38) 2-K.Trask kneels to CAR 17 for -1 yards. [EPA -3.20]

Quarterback report card

B.Mayfield led all passers in efficiency for Tampa Bay Buccaneers, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• B.Mayfield (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) · 37 dropbacks · 73.0% completion · +20.2% CPOE · +0.72 EPA/play · +26.54 total EPA
• B.Young (Carolina Panthers) · 36 dropbacks · 41.7% completion · +9.9% CPOE · -0.04 EPA/play · -1.35 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.32 vs -0.13), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Carolina Panthers: 10 drives, -8.74 total EPA, 3 scoring drives
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 10 drives, +29.08 total EPA, 7 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• B. Mayfield (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• B. Mayfield (TB) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• B. Young (CAR) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q1 56:38 · CAR 2 · Score 0-6
   (11:38) 77-J.Skule reported in as eligible. 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 13-M.Evans for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers XP (+1) — Q1 56:35 · CAR 15 · Score 0-7
   4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.
3. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q1 53:20 · TB 17 · Score 6-7
   (8:20) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 19-A.Thielen for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Carolina Panthers XP (+1) — Q1 53:15 · TB 15 · Score 7-7
   4-E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers FG (+3) — Q1 46:16 · CAR 5 · Score 7-10
   (1:16) 4-C.McLaughlin 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers FG (+3) — Q2 40:35 · CAR 16 · Score 7-13
   (10:35) 4-C.McLaughlin 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q2 38:24 · CAR 1 · Score 7-19
   (8:24) (No Huddle) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 13-M.Evans for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers XP (+1) — Q2 38:19 · CAR 15 · Score 7-20
   4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q2 31:17 · CAR 10 · Score 7-26
   (1:17) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 15-J.McMillan for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers XP (+1) — Q2 31:11 · CAR 15 · Score 7-27
    4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.
11. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q2 30:56 · TB 40 · Score 13-27
    (:56) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep middle to 19-A.Thielen for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12. Carolina Panthers XP (+1) — Q2 30:50 · TB 15 · Score 14-27
    4-E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q3 20:52 · CAR 5 · Score 14-33
    (5:52) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 87-P.Durham for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers XP (+1) — Q3 20:48 · CAR 15 · Score 14-34
    4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning.
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q3 20:30 · TB 70 · Score 14-40
    (5:30) 10-J.Hekker punt is BLOCKED by 9-J.Tryon, Center-44-J.Jansen, RECOVERED by TB-51-J.Russell at CAR 23. 51-J.Russell for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers XP (+1) — Q3 20:23 · CAR 15 · Score 14-41
    4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning. ** Injury Update: CAR-94-A.Robinson has returned to the game.
17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers TD (+6) — Q4 13:36 · CAR 16 · Score 14-47
    (13:36) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 15-J.McMillan for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
18. Tampa Bay Buccaneers XP (+1) — Q4 13:30 · CAR 15 · Score 14-48
    4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-5-J.Browning. ** Injury Update: CAR-42-S.Franklin has returned to the game.