Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints: 2017 Week 18 Recap

Game story

In Week 18 of the 2017 NFL season on 2018-01-07, the New Orleans Saints took care of business against the Carolina Panthers, pulling away with a 31–26 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 23 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

C. Newton (Carolina Panthers) paced the passing game, with +14.03 total EPA, and +1.0% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, D. Brees (New Orleans Saints) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +16.70 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-20.1% win probability) landed in the fourth quarter when Carolina Panthers changed the game: (:41) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short right [94-C.Jordan]. PENALTY on CAR-1-C.Newton, Intentional Grounding, 13 yards, enforced at NO 21.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 D. Brees · New Orleans Saints · Passing · +16.70 total EPA · 35 snaps · +0.48 EPA/play
2. 2 C. Newton · Carolina Panthers · Passing · +14.03 total EPA · 49 snaps · +0.29 EPA/play
3. 3 M. Thomas · New Orleans Saints · Receiving · +9.07 total EPA · 9 snaps · +1.01 EPA/play
4. 4 G. Olsen · Carolina Panthers · Receiving · +8.20 total EPA · 12 snaps · +0.68 EPA/play
5. 5 T. Ginn · New Orleans Saints · Receiving · +8.04 total EPA · 6 snaps · +1.34 EPA/play
6. 6 C. McCaffrey · Carolina Panthers · Receiving · +6.39 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.80 EPA/play
7. 7 B. Coleman · New Orleans Saints · Receiving · +3.23 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.65 EPA/play
8. 8 J. Hill · New Orleans Saints · Receiving · +2.77 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.69 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• New Orleans Saints — T. Ginn (D. Brees pass) (Q1 46:58)
• New Orleans Saints — J. Hill (D. Brees pass) (Q2 39:09)
• New Orleans Saints — Z. Line (Q2 30:46)
• Carolina Panthers — G. Olsen (C. Newton pass) (Q4 12:52)
• New Orleans Saints — A. Kamara (Q4 5:12)
• Carolina Panthers — C. McCaffrey (C. Newton pass) (Q4 4:20)

Field goals

• Carolina Panthers — G. Gano (Q2 44:15)
• Carolina Panthers — G. Gano (Q2 32:51)
• Carolina Panthers — G. Gano (Q2 30:03)
• Carolina Panthers — G. Gano (Q3 26:01)
• New Orleans Saints — W. Lutz (Q3 21:09)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: New Orleans Saints won the period 7–0. New Orleans Saints found the end zone from the CAR 80 (Q1 46:58) — (1:58) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 19-T.Ginn for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 41, YAC 39; New Orleans Saints added 1 points from the CAR 15 (Q1 46:46) — 3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead..

The second quarter: New Orleans Saints won the period 14–9. Carolina Panthers connected on a field goal from the NO 9 (Q2 44:15) — (14:15) 9-G.Gano 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.; New Orleans Saints found the end zone from the CAR 9 (Q2 39:09) — (9:09) 61-J.LeRibeus reported in as eligible. 9-D.Brees pass short left to 89-J.Hill for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 9, YAC 0; New Orleans Saints added 1 points from the CAR 15 (Q2 39:04) — 3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.; Carolina Panthers connected on a field goal from the NO 21 (Q2 32:51) — (2:51) 9-G.Gano 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.; New Orleans Saints found the end zone from the CAR 1 (Q2 30:46) — (:46) 61-J.LeRibeus reported in as eligible. 42-Z.Line right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; New Orleans Saints added 1 points from the CAR 15 (Q2 30:43) — 3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.; Carolina Panthers connected on a field goal from the NO 40 (Q2 30:03) — (:03) 9-G.Gano 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy..

The third quarter: The quarter finished even at 3–3. Carolina Panthers connected on a field goal from the NO 11 (Q3 26:01) — (11:01) 9-G.Gano 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.; New Orleans Saints connected on a field goal from the CAR 39 (Q3 21:09) — (6:09) 3-W.Lutz 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead..

The fourth quarter: Carolina Panthers won the period 14–7. Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the NO 14 (Q4 12:52) — (12:52) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 88-G.Olsen for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Carolina Panthers added 1 points from the NO 15 (Q4 12:47) — 9-G.Gano extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.; New Orleans Saints found the end zone from the CAR 2 (Q4 5:12); New Orleans Saints added 1 points from the CAR 15 (Q4 5:08) — 3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.; Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the NO 56 (Q4 4:20) — (4:20) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 22-C.McCaffrey for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 6, YAC 50; Carolina Panthers added 1 points from the NO 15 (Q4 4:09) — 9-G.Gano extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Carolina Panthers (Q4 0:41) — (:41) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short right [94-C.Jordan]. PENALTY on CAR-1-C.Newton, Intentional Grounding, 13 yards, enforced at NO 21. [WPA -20.1% · EPA -1.70]
• New Orleans Saints (Q1 46:58) — (1:58) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 19-T.Ginn for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 41, YAC 39 [WPA +18.1% · EPA +6.19]
• New Orleans Saints (Q4 2:00) — (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep right intended for 41-A.Kamara INTERCEPTED by 29-M.Adams [98-S.Lotulelei] at CAR 30. 29-M.Adams to CAR 31 for 1 yard (41-A.Kamara). FUMBLES (41-A.Kamara), ball out [WPA -13.6% · EPA -1.26]
• Carolina Panthers (Q4 0:11) — (:11) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton sacked at CAR 49 for -17 yards (48-V.Bell). [WPA -11.6% · EPA -2.09]
• Carolina Panthers (Q1 47:07) — (2:07) 9-G.Gano 25 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. [WPA -10.9% · EPA -4.33]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• New Orleans Saints (Q1 46:58) — (1:58) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 19-T.Ginn for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 41, YAC 39 [WPA +18.1% · EPA +6.19]
• Carolina Panthers (Q4 4:20) — (4:20) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 22-C.McCaffrey for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 6, YAC 50 [WPA +10.5% · EPA +5.33]
• Carolina Panthers (Q1 47:07) — (2:07) 9-G.Gano 25 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. [WPA -10.9% · EPA -4.33]
• New Orleans Saints (Q3 21:16) — (6:16) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass incomplete short left [59-L.Kuechly]. Penalty on NO-71-R.Ramczyk, Offensive Holding, declined. PENALTY on NO-9-D.Brees, Intentional Grounding, 17 yards, enforced at CAR [WPA -5.3% · EPA -3.32]

Quarterback report card

C.Newton led all passers in efficiency for Carolina Panthers, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• C.Newton (Carolina Panthers) · 49 dropbacks · 49.0% completion · +1.0% CPOE · +0.29 EPA/play · +14.03 total EPA
• D.Brees (New Orleans Saints) · 35 dropbacks · 65.7% completion · +14.5% CPOE · +0.48 EPA/play · +16.70 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Carolina Panthers +0.09, New Orleans Saints +0.14) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Carolina Panthers: 11 drives, +8.47 total EPA, 6 scoring drives
• New Orleans Saints: 11 drives, +9.99 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New Orleans Saints leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
• D. Brees (New Orleans Saints) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• D. Brees (NO) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. New Orleans Saints TD (+6) — Q1 46:58 · CAR 80 · Score 0-6
   (1:58) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 19-T.Ginn for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 41, YAC 39
2. New Orleans Saints XP (+1) — Q1 46:46 · CAR 15 · Score 0-7
   3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
3. Carolina Panthers FG (+3) — Q2 44:15 · NO 9 · Score 3-7
   (14:15) 9-G.Gano 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
4. New Orleans Saints TD (+6) — Q2 39:09 · CAR 9 · Score 3-13
   (9:09) 61-J.LeRibeus reported in as eligible. 9-D.Brees pass short left to 89-J.Hill for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 9, YAC 0
5. New Orleans Saints XP (+1) — Q2 39:04 · CAR 15 · Score 3-14
   3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
6. Carolina Panthers FG (+3) — Q2 32:51 · NO 21 · Score 6-14
   (2:51) 9-G.Gano 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
7. New Orleans Saints TD (+6) — Q2 30:46 · CAR 1 · Score 6-20
   (:46) 61-J.LeRibeus reported in as eligible. 42-Z.Line right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
8. New Orleans Saints XP (+1) — Q2 30:43 · CAR 15 · Score 6-21
   3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
9. Carolina Panthers FG (+3) — Q2 30:03 · NO 40 · Score 9-21
   (:03) 9-G.Gano 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
10. Carolina Panthers FG (+3) — Q3 26:01 · NO 11 · Score 12-21
    (11:01) 9-G.Gano 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
11. New Orleans Saints FG (+3) — Q3 21:09 · CAR 39 · Score 12-24
    (6:09) 3-W.Lutz 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
12. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q4 12:52 · NO 14 · Score 18-24
    (12:52) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 88-G.Olsen for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13. Carolina Panthers XP (+1) — Q4 12:47 · NO 15 · Score 19-24
    9-G.Gano extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
14. New Orleans Saints TD (+6) — Q4 5:12 · CAR 2 · Score 19-30
    (5:12) 61-J.LeRibeus reported in as eligible. 41-A.Kamara right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO-65-S.Kelemete was injured during the play. His return is Probab
15. New Orleans Saints XP (+1) — Q4 5:08 · CAR 15 · Score 19-31
    3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
16. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q4 4:20 · NO 56 · Score 25-31
    (4:20) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 22-C.McCaffrey for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 6, YAC 50
17. Carolina Panthers XP (+1) — Q4 4:09 · NO 15 · Score 26-31
    9-G.Gano extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.