Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons: 2016 Week 4 Recap

Game story

In Week 4 of the 2016 NFL season on 2016-10-02, the Atlanta Falcons took care of business against the Carolina Panthers, pulling away with a 48–33 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 40 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

M. Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) paced the passing game, with +24.60 total EPA, and +11.9% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, M. Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +24.60 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-9.6% win probability) landed in the second quarter when Atlanta Falcons changed the game: (11:37) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left intended for 24-D.Freeman INTERCEPTED by 20-K.Coleman (58-T.Davis) at ATL 8. 20-K.Coleman for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 M. Ryan · Atlanta Falcons · Passing · +24.60 total EPA · 42 snaps · +0.59 EPA/play
2. 2 J. Jones · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +20.20 total EPA · 15 snaps · +1.35 EPA/play
3. 3 T. Gabriel · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +5.84 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.95 EPA/play
4. 4 D. Anderson · Carolina Panthers · Passing · +5.21 total EPA · 28 snaps · +0.19 EPA/play
5. 5 C. Brown · Carolina Panthers · Receiving · +3.98 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.57 EPA/play
6. 6 F. Whittaker · Carolina Panthers · Receiving · +3.94 total EPA · 9 snaps · +0.44 EPA/play
7. 7 D. Funchess · Carolina Panthers · Receiving · +3.67 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.22 EPA/play
8. 8 A. Robinson · Atlanta Falcons · Receiving · +3.52 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.17 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Atlanta Falcons — J. Tamme (M. Ryan pass) (Q1 52:20)
• Atlanta Falcons — D. Freeman (Q1 45:23)
• Carolina Panthers — K. Coleman (Q2 41:37)
• Atlanta Falcons — A. Hooper (M. Ryan pass) (Q3 24:23)
• Atlanta Falcons — A. Robinson (M. Ryan pass) (Q3 20:05)
• Carolina Panthers — K. Benjamin (C. Newton pass) (Q4 11:47)
• Carolina Panthers — G. Olsen (D. Anderson pass) (Q4 4:05)
• Atlanta Falcons — J. Jones (M. Ryan pass) (Q4 3:58)
• Carolina Panthers — C. Brown (D. Anderson pass) (Q4 2:00)
• Atlanta Falcons — R. Alford (Q4 1:25)

Field goals

• Atlanta Falcons — M. Bryant (Q2 36:01)
• Carolina Panthers — G. Gano (Q2 33:12)
• Atlanta Falcons — M. Bryant (Q4 13:24)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Atlanta Falcons won the period 14–0. Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the CAR 4 (Q1 52:20) — (7:20) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 83-J.Tamme for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the CAR 15 (Q1 52:14) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the CAR 13 (Q1 45:23) — (:23) 24-D.Freeman right guard for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the CAR 15 (Q1 45:17) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher..

The second quarter: Carolina Panthers won the period 10–3. Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the CAR 94 (Q2 41:37); Carolina Panthers added 1 points from the ATL 15 (Q2 41:31) — 9-G.Gano extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee.; Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the CAR 10 (Q2 36:01) — (6:01) 3-M.Bryant 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.; Carolina Panthers connected on a field goal from the ATL 36 (Q2 33:12) — (3:12) 9-G.Gano 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee..

The third quarter: Atlanta Falcons won the period 14–0. Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the CAR 42 (Q3 24:23) — (9:23) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 81-A.Hooper for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the CAR 15 (Q3 24:13) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the CAR 35 (Q3 20:05); Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the CAR 15 (Q3 19:57) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher..

The fourth quarter: Carolina Panthers won the period 23–17. Atlanta Falcons connected on a field goal from the CAR 35 (Q4 13:24) — (13:24) 3-M.Bryant 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.; Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the ATL 6 (Q4 11:47) — (11:47) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short middle to 13-K.Benjamin for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Carolina Panthers registered a safety from the ATL 2 (Q4 11:42); Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the ATL 14 (Q4 4:05) — (4:05) (Shotgun) 3-D.Anderson pass short left to 88-G.Olsen for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Carolina Panthers registered a safety from the ATL 2 (Q4 3:58) — (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 3-D.Anderson pass to 88-G.Olsen is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the CAR 75 (Q4 3:58) — (3:58) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-J.Jones for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the CAR 15 (Q4 3:45) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.; Carolina Panthers found the end zone from the ATL 16 (Q4 2:00) — (2:00) (Shotgun) 3-D.Anderson pass short right to 10-C.Brown for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Carolina Panthers added 1 points from the ATL 15 (Q4 1:53) — 9-G.Gano extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee.; Atlanta Falcons found the end zone from the ATL 76 (Q4 1:25); Atlanta Falcons added 1 points from the CAR 15 (Q4 1:14) — 3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Atlanta Falcons (Q2 41:37) — (11:37) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left intended for 24-D.Freeman INTERCEPTED by 20-K.Coleman (58-T.Davis) at ATL 8. 20-K.Coleman for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -9.6% · EPA -6.57]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q2 38:46) — (8:46) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 11-J.Jones to CAR 15 for 53 yards (20-K.Coleman). [WPA +8.3% · EPA +4.78]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q3 24:23) — (9:23) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 81-A.Hooper for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +7.6% · EPA +3.44]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q3 27:00) — (12:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 12-M.Sanu to ATL 48 for 18 yards (20-K.Coleman). CAR-58-T.Davis was injured during the play. [WPA +5.7% · EPA +2.30]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q2 32:05) — (2:05) 2-M.Ryan sacked at ATL 26 for -7 yards (59-L.Kuechly). [WPA -5.5% · EPA -1.34]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Carolina Panthers (Q4 1:25) — (1:25) (Shotgun) 3-D.Anderson pass short right intended for 88-G.Olsen INTERCEPTED by 23-R.Alford at CAR 30. 23-R.Alford for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -4.4% · EPA -7.77]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q2 41:37) — (11:37) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left intended for 24-D.Freeman INTERCEPTED by 20-K.Coleman (58-T.Davis) at ATL 8. 20-K.Coleman for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -9.6% · EPA -6.57]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q4 3:58) — (3:58) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-J.Jones for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +3.0% · EPA +5.84]
• Atlanta Falcons (Q2 38:46) — (8:46) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 11-J.Jones to CAR 15 for 53 yards (20-K.Coleman). [WPA +8.3% · EPA +4.78]

Quarterback report card

M.Ryan led all passers in efficiency for Atlanta Falcons, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• M.Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) · 42 dropbacks · 66.7% completion · +11.9% CPOE · +0.59 EPA/play · +24.60 total EPA
• D.Anderson (Carolina Panthers) · 28 dropbacks · 60.7% completion · +10.3% CPOE · +0.19 EPA/play · +5.21 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Atlanta Falcons held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.23 vs +0.04), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Atlanta Falcons: 14 drives, +19.17 total EPA, 8 scoring drives
• Carolina Panthers: 13 drives, +4.19 total EPA, 5 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Atlanta Falcons leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• M. Ryan (Atlanta Falcons) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• M. Ryan (ATL) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• D. Anderson (CAR) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q1 52:20 · CAR 4 · Score 0-6
   (7:20) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 83-J.Tamme for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q1 52:14 · CAR 15 · Score 0-7
   3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
3. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q1 45:23 · CAR 13 · Score 0-13
   (:23) 24-D.Freeman right guard for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q1 45:17 · CAR 15 · Score 0-14
   3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
5. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q2 41:37 · CAR 94 · Score 6-14
   (11:37) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left intended for 24-D.Freeman INTERCEPTED by 20-K.Coleman (58-T.Davis) at ATL 8. 20-K.Coleman for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Carolina Panthers XP (+1) — Q2 41:31 · ATL 15 · Score 7-14
   9-G.Gano extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee.
7. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q2 36:01 · CAR 10 · Score 7-17
   (6:01) 3-M.Bryant 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
8. Carolina Panthers FG (+3) — Q2 33:12 · ATL 36 · Score 10-17
   (3:12) 9-G.Gano 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee.
9. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q3 24:23 · CAR 42 · Score 10-23
   (9:23) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 81-A.Hooper for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q3 24:13 · CAR 15 · Score 10-24
    3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
11. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q3 20:05 · CAR 35 · Score 10-30
    (5:05) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 19-A.Robinson for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Uph
12. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q3 19:57 · CAR 15 · Score 10-31
    3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
13. Atlanta Falcons FG (+3) — Q4 13:24 · CAR 35 · Score 10-34
    (13:24) 3-M.Bryant 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
14. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q4 11:47 · ATL 6 · Score 16-34
    (11:47) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short middle to 13-K.Benjamin for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15. Carolina Panthers Safety (+2) — Q4 11:42 · ATL 2 · Score 18-34
    (Run formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 1-C.Newton rushes left tackle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. PENALTY on CAR-70-T.Turner, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between
16. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q4 4:05 · ATL 14 · Score 24-34
    (4:05) (Shotgun) 3-D.Anderson pass short left to 88-G.Olsen for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
17. Carolina Panthers Safety (+2) — Q4 3:58 · ATL 2 · Score 26-34
    (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 3-D.Anderson pass to 88-G.Olsen is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
18. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q4 3:58 · CAR 75 · Score 26-40
    (3:58) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-J.Jones for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
19. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q4 3:45 · CAR 15 · Score 26-41
    3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
20. Carolina Panthers TD (+6) — Q4 2:00 · ATL 16 · Score 32-41
    (2:00) (Shotgun) 3-D.Anderson pass short right to 10-C.Brown for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
21. Carolina Panthers XP (+1) — Q4 1:53 · ATL 15 · Score 33-41
    9-G.Gano extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee.
22. Atlanta Falcons TD (+6) — Q4 1:25 · ATL 76 · Score 33-47
    (1:25) (Shotgun) 3-D.Anderson pass short right intended for 88-G.Olsen INTERCEPTED by 23-R.Alford at CAR 30. 23-R.Alford for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
23. Atlanta Falcons XP (+1) — Q4 1:14 · CAR 15 · Score 33-48
    3-M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.