Buffalo Bills vs. San Francisco 49ers: 2012 Week 5 Recap

Game story

In Week 5 of the 2012 NFL season on 2012-10-07, the San Francisco 49ers took care of business against the Buffalo Bills, pulling away with a 45–3 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 21 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

A. Smith (San Francisco 49ers) paced the passing game, with +16.82 total EPA, and +15.0% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, A. Smith (San Francisco 49ers) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +16.82 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+12.6% win probability) landed in the second quarter when San Francisco 49ers changed the game: (10:02) 11-A.Smith pass deep right to 10-K.Williams for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at BUF 15. 15-yds YAC

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 A. Smith · San Francisco 49ers · Passing · +16.82 total EPA · 28 snaps · +0.60 EPA/play
2. 2 M. Crabtree · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +8.50 total EPA · 7 snaps · +1.21 EPA/play
3. 3 V. Davis · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +5.55 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.79 EPA/play
4. 4 K. Hunter · San Francisco 49ers · Rushing · +5.45 total EPA · 12 snaps · +0.45 EPA/play
5. 5 K. Williams · San Francisco 49ers · Receiving · +5.06 total EPA · 2 snaps · +2.53 EPA/play
6. 6 F. Gore · San Francisco 49ers · Rushing · +3.60 total EPA · 14 snaps · +0.26 EPA/play
7. 7 T. Graham · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +3.51 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.17 EPA/play
8. 8 A. Smith · San Francisco 49ers · Rushing · +3.46 total EPA · 1 snaps · +3.46 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• San Francisco 49ers — K. Williams (A. Smith pass) (Q2 40:02)
• San Francisco 49ers — M. Crabtree (A. Smith pass) (Q2 30:29)
• San Francisco 49ers — F. Gore (Q3 24:11)
• San Francisco 49ers — M. Manningham (A. Smith pass) (Q4 14:16)
• San Francisco 49ers — C. Kaepernick (Q4 10:00)
• San Francisco 49ers — A. Dixon (Q4 1:17)

Field goals

• San Francisco 49ers — D. Akers (Q1 52:29)
• Buffalo Bills — R. Lindell (Q2 40:50)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: San Francisco 49ers won the period 3–0. San Francisco 49ers connected on a field goal from the BUF 1 (Q1 52:29) — (7:29) 2-D.Akers 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee..

The second quarter: San Francisco 49ers won the period 14–3. Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the SF 13 (Q2 40:50) — (10:50) 9-R.Lindell 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-S.Powell.; San Francisco 49ers found the end zone from the BUF 43 (Q2 40:02) — (10:02) 11-A.Smith pass deep right to 10-K.Williams for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at BUF 15. 15-yds YAC; San Francisco 49ers added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q2 39:54) — 2-D.Akers extra point is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.; San Francisco 49ers found the end zone from the BUF 28 (Q2 30:29) — (:29) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep left to 15-M.Crabtree for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in endzone. 0-yds YAC; San Francisco 49ers added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q2 30:24) — 2-D.Akers extra point is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee..

The third quarter: San Francisco 49ers won the period 7–0. San Francisco 49ers found the end zone from the BUF 1 (Q3 24:11) — (9:11) 67-D.Kilgore, 68-L.Davis and 92-W.Tukuafu reported in as eligible. 21-F.Gore up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; San Francisco 49ers added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q3 24:06) — 2-D.Akers extra point is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee..

The fourth quarter: San Francisco 49ers won the period 21–0. San Francisco 49ers found the end zone from the BUF 10 (Q4 14:16) — (14:16) A.Smith in at QB (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short right to 82-M.Manningham for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; San Francisco 49ers added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q4 14:12) — 2-D.Akers extra point is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.; San Francisco 49ers found the end zone from the BUF 16 (Q4 10:00) — (10:00) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick left end for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; San Francisco 49ers added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q4 9:55) — 2-D.Akers extra point is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.; San Francisco 49ers found the end zone from the BUF 3 (Q4 1:17) — (1:17) 24-A.Dixon right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; San Francisco 49ers added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q4 1:11) — 2-D.Akers extra point is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• San Francisco 49ers (Q2 40:02) — (10:02) 11-A.Smith pass deep right to 10-K.Williams for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at BUF 15. 15-yds YAC [WPA +12.6% · EPA +4.04]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q1 55:02) — (10:02) 11-A.Smith pass deep right to 85-V.Davis pushed ob at BUF 8 for 53 yards (23-A.Williams). Caught at BUF 28. 20-yds YAC [WPA +11.2% · EPA +3.17]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 52:25) — 2-D.Akers kicks 68 yards from SF 35 to BUF -3. 21-L.McKelvin to SF 44 for 59 yards (26-T.Brock). [WPA +10.7% · EPA +2.47]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q2 30:58) — (:58) 7-C.Kaepernick left end to BUF 20 for 6 yards (50-N.Barnett). FUMBLES (50-N.Barnett), RECOVERED by BUF-99-M.Dareus at BUF 17. 99-M.Dareus to BUF 17 for no gain (46-D.Walker). 3-yds of loose ball [WPA -9.9% · EPA -3.36]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 30:37) — (:37) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 84-S.Chandler to BUF 32 for 11 yards (52-P.Willis). FUMBLES (52-P.Willis), RECOVERED by SF-38-D.Goldson at BUF 33. 38-D.Goldson to BUF 28 for 5 yard [WPA -9.4% · EPA -3.07]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Buffalo Bills (Q3 22:10) — (7:10) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right intended for 19-D.Jones INTERCEPTED by 29-C.Culliver at SF 2. 29-C.Culliver to SF 6 for 4 yards (19-D.Jones). [WPA -4.5% · EPA -4.26]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q2 40:02) — (10:02) 11-A.Smith pass deep right to 10-K.Williams for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at BUF 15. 15-yds YAC [WPA +12.6% · EPA +4.04]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q2 30:29) — (:29) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep left to 15-M.Crabtree for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in endzone. 0-yds YAC [WPA +4.1% · EPA +3.99]
• San Francisco 49ers (Q4 10:50) — (10:50) 67-D.Kilgore, 68-L.Davis and 92-W.Tukuafu reported in as eligible. 11-A.Smith left end to BUF 21 for 17 yards. [WPA +0.0% · EPA +3.46]

Quarterback report card

A.Smith led all passers in efficiency for San Francisco 49ers, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• A.Smith (San Francisco 49ers) · 28 dropbacks · 64.3% completion · +15.0% CPOE · +0.60 EPA/play · +16.82 total EPA
• R.Fitzpatrick (Buffalo Bills) · 28 dropbacks · 57.1% completion · +1.3% CPOE · -0.44 EPA/play · -12.28 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

San Francisco 49ers held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.40 vs -0.14), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Buffalo Bills: 11 drives, -9.00 total EPA, 1 scoring drives
• San Francisco 49ers: 10 drives, +33.85 total EPA, 7 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• San Francisco 49ers leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• A. Smith (San Francisco 49ers) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• A. Smith (SF) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. San Francisco 49ers FG (+3) — Q1 52:29 · BUF 1 · Score 0-3
   (7:29) 2-D.Akers 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.
2. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q2 40:50 · SF 13 · Score 3-3
   (10:50) 9-R.Lindell 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-S.Powell.
3. San Francisco 49ers TD (+6) — Q2 40:02 · BUF 43 · Score 3-9
   (10:02) 11-A.Smith pass deep right to 10-K.Williams for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at BUF 15. 15-yds YAC
4. San Francisco 49ers XP (+1) — Q2 39:54 · BUF 2 · Score 3-10
   2-D.Akers extra point is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.
5. San Francisco 49ers TD (+6) — Q2 30:29 · BUF 28 · Score 3-16
   (:29) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep left to 15-M.Crabtree for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in endzone. 0-yds YAC
6. San Francisco 49ers XP (+1) — Q2 30:24 · BUF 2 · Score 3-17
   2-D.Akers extra point is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.
7. San Francisco 49ers TD (+6) — Q3 24:11 · BUF 1 · Score 3-23
   (9:11) 67-D.Kilgore, 68-L.Davis and 92-W.Tukuafu reported in as eligible. 21-F.Gore up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
8. San Francisco 49ers XP (+1) — Q3 24:06 · BUF 2 · Score 3-24
   2-D.Akers extra point is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.
9. San Francisco 49ers TD (+6) — Q4 14:16 · BUF 10 · Score 3-30
   (14:16) A.Smith in at QB (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short right to 82-M.Manningham for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10. San Francisco 49ers XP (+1) — Q4 14:12 · BUF 2 · Score 3-31
    2-D.Akers extra point is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.
11. San Francisco 49ers TD (+6) — Q4 10:00 · BUF 16 · Score 3-37
    (10:00) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick left end for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12. San Francisco 49ers XP (+1) — Q4 9:55 · BUF 2 · Score 3-38
    2-D.Akers extra point is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.
13. San Francisco 49ers TD (+6) — Q4 1:17 · BUF 3 · Score 3-44
    (1:17) 24-A.Dixon right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14. San Francisco 49ers XP (+1) — Q4 1:11 · BUF 2 · Score 3-45
    2-D.Akers extra point is GOOD, Center-86-B.Jennings, Holder-4-A.Lee.