Buffalo Bills vs. Philadelphia Eagles: 2007 Week 17 Recap

Game story

In Week 17 of the 2007 NFL season on 2007-12-30, the Philadelphia Eagles took care of business against the Buffalo Bills, pulling away with a 17–9 final that built a comfortable lead.

The highest-scoring period was Q3 with 13 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

D. McNabb (Philadelphia Eagles) paced the passing game, with +10.13 total EPA, and +6.2% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, D. McNabb (Philadelphia Eagles) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +10.13 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-10.4% win probability) landed in the second quarter when Philadelphia Eagles changed the game: (10:17) (Shotgun) 5-D.McNabb pass short left intended for 83-G.Lewis INTERCEPTED by 26-A.Youboty at BUF 5. 26-A.Youboty to BUF 24 for 19 yards (80-K.Curtis).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 D. McNabb · Philadelphia Eagles · Passing · +10.13 total EPA · 46 snaps · +0.22 EPA/play
2. 2 R. Brown · Philadelphia Eagles · Receiving · +8.08 total EPA · 5 snaps · +1.62 EPA/play
3. 3 G. Lewis · Philadelphia Eagles · Receiving · +4.28 total EPA · 2 snaps · +2.14 EPA/play
4. 4 B. Celek · Philadelphia Eagles · Receiving · +4.15 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.38 EPA/play
5. 5 K. Curtis · Philadelphia Eagles · Receiving · +4.05 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.58 EPA/play
6. 6 B. Westbrook · Philadelphia Eagles · Receiving · +2.63 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.66 EPA/play
7. 7 J. Reed · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +2.28 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.28 EPA/play
8. 8 S. Aiken · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +1.90 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.90 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Philadelphia Eagles — B. Celek (D. McNabb pass) (Q1 46:13)
• Philadelphia Eagles — R. Brown (D. McNabb pass) (Q3 18:51)

Field goals

• Buffalo Bills — R. Lindell (Q2 32:00)
• Philadelphia Eagles — D. Akers (Q2 30:24)
• Buffalo Bills — R. Lindell (Q3 20:56)
• Buffalo Bills — R. Lindell (Q3 16:36)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Philadelphia Eagles won the period 7–0. Philadelphia Eagles found the end zone from the BUF 2 (Q1 46:13) — (1:13) 5-D.McNabb pass short left to 87-B.Celek for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Philadelphia Eagles added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q1 46:07) — 2-D.Akers extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-6-S.Rocca..

The second quarter: The quarter finished even at 3–3. Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the PHI 10 (Q2 32:00) — (2:00) 9-R.Lindell 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-72-R.Neill, Holder-8-B.Moorman.; Philadelphia Eagles connected on a field goal from the BUF 20 (Q2 30:24) — (:24) 2-D.Akers 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-6-S.Rocca..

The third quarter: Philadelphia Eagles won the period 7–6. Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the PHI 5 (Q3 20:56) — (5:56) 9-R.Lindell 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-72-R.Neill, Holder-8-B.Moorman.; Philadelphia Eagles found the end zone from the BUF 33 (Q3 18:51); Philadelphia Eagles added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q3 18:42) — 2-D.Akers extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-6-S.Rocca.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the PHI 4 (Q3 16:36) — (1:36) 9-R.Lindell 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-72-R.Neill, Holder-8-B.Moorman..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Philadelphia Eagles (Q2 40:17) — (10:17) (Shotgun) 5-D.McNabb pass short left intended for 83-G.Lewis INTERCEPTED by 26-A.Youboty at BUF 5. 26-A.Youboty to BUF 24 for 19 yards (80-K.Curtis). [WPA -10.4% · EPA -4.79]
• Buffalo Bills (Q3 18:30) — (3:30) 23-M.Lynch right end pushed ob at PHI 10 for 56 yards (22-J.Hanson). [WPA +9.2% · EPA +4.27]
• Philadelphia Eagles (Q3 18:51) — (3:51) 5-D.McNabb pass deep right to 86-R.Brown to BUF 1 for 32 yards (43-B.Scott). FUMBLES (43-B.Scott), recovered by PHI-80-K.Curtis at BUF -4. TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +9.1% · EPA +3.48]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 13:45) — (13:45) 23-M.Lynch right tackle to PHI 19 for no gain (56-A.Jordan). Buffalo challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. (Timeout #1 at 13:39.) [WPA -7.9% · EPA -3.51]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 33:46) — (3:46) (Shotgun) 5-T.Edwards pass incomplete left. PENALTY on PHI-55-S.Bradley, Roughing the Passer, 14 yards, enforced at PHI 32 - No Play. [WPA +7.9% · EPA +2.35]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Philadelphia Eagles (Q2 40:17) — (10:17) (Shotgun) 5-D.McNabb pass short left intended for 83-G.Lewis INTERCEPTED by 26-A.Youboty at BUF 5. 26-A.Youboty to BUF 24 for 19 yards (80-K.Curtis). [WPA -10.4% · EPA -4.79]
• Philadelphia Eagles (Q3 15:08) — (:08) (Shotgun) 5-D.McNabb Aborted. 67-J.Jackson FUMBLES at PHI 35, RECOVERED by BUF-52-J.DiGiorgio at PHI 28. 52-J.DiGiorgio to PHI 28 for no gain (5-D.McNabb). [WPA -7.4% · EPA -4.41]
• Buffalo Bills (Q3 18:30) — (3:30) 23-M.Lynch right end pushed ob at PHI 10 for 56 yards (22-J.Hanson). [WPA +9.2% · EPA +4.27]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 13:45) — (13:45) 23-M.Lynch right tackle to PHI 19 for no gain (56-A.Jordan). Buffalo challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. (Timeout #1 at 13:39.) [WPA -7.9% · EPA -3.51]

Quarterback report card

D.McNabb led all passers in efficiency for Philadelphia Eagles, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• D.McNabb (Philadelphia Eagles) · 46 dropbacks · 63.0% completion · +6.2% CPOE · +0.22 EPA/play · +10.13 total EPA
• T.Edwards (Buffalo Bills) · 33 dropbacks · 48.5% completion · -6.7% CPOE · -0.02 EPA/play · -0.79 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Philadelphia Eagles held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.01 vs -0.06), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Buffalo Bills: 11 drives, -4.49 total EPA, 3 scoring drives
• Philadelphia Eagles: 10 drives, +0.91 total EPA, 3 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Philadelphia Eagles leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• D. McNabb (Philadelphia Eagles) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• D. McNabb (PHI) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• T. Edwards (BUF) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Philadelphia Eagles TD (+6) — Q1 46:13 · BUF 2 · Score 0-6
   (1:13) 5-D.McNabb pass short left to 87-B.Celek for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Philadelphia Eagles XP (+1) — Q1 46:07 · BUF 2 · Score 0-7
   2-D.Akers extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-6-S.Rocca.
3. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q2 32:00 · PHI 10 · Score 3-7
   (2:00) 9-R.Lindell 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-72-R.Neill, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
4. Philadelphia Eagles FG (+3) — Q2 30:24 · BUF 20 · Score 3-10
   (:24) 2-D.Akers 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-6-S.Rocca.
5. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q3 20:56 · PHI 5 · Score 6-10
   (5:56) 9-R.Lindell 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-72-R.Neill, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
6. Philadelphia Eagles TD (+6) — Q3 18:51 · BUF 33 · Score 6-16
   (3:51) 5-D.McNabb pass deep right to 86-R.Brown to BUF 1 for 32 yards (43-B.Scott). FUMBLES (43-B.Scott), recovered by PHI-80-K.Curtis at BUF -4. TOUCHDOWN.
7. Philadelphia Eagles XP (+1) — Q3 18:42 · BUF 2 · Score 6-17
   2-D.Akers extra point is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-6-S.Rocca.
8. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q3 16:36 · PHI 4 · Score 9-17
   (1:36) 9-R.Lindell 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-72-R.Neill, Holder-8-B.Moorman.