FantasyHQ · Game Recap

NFL · Week 12 · November 25, 2021 · 11 min read

Buffalo Bills vs. New Orleans Saints: 2021 Week 12 Recap

Bills defeat Saints 31–6 in Week 12

Jonathan Allen led Fantasy Impact as Bills prevailed in a 31–6 Week 12 finish.

Buffalo Bills 31 7–4 Winner
Final 31–6
New Orleans Saints 6 5–6
Winner
Buffalo Bills
Final score
31–6
Halftime
Buffalo Bills 10–0 New Orleans Saints
Top passer
Jonathan Allen
FantasyHQ MVP
Jonathan Allen
Game date
November 25, 2021

Top fantasy performers · Bills

  • Jonathan Allen
    Jonathan Allen 23/38 · 273 YDS · 5 TD +14.3 Fantasy Impact
  • Dawson Knox
    Dawson Knox 3 REC · 32 YDS · 2 TD +5.9 Fantasy Impact
  • Matt Breida
    Matt Breida 2 REC · 29 YDS · 1 TD +3.7 Fantasy Impact

Top fantasy performers · Saints

  • Nick Vannett
    Nick Vannett 1 REC · 11 YDS · 1 TD +2.4 Fantasy Impact
  • Trevor Siemian
    Trevor Siemian 1 CAR · 2 YDS +2.2 Fantasy Impact
  • Lil'Jordan Humphrey
    Lil'Jordan Humphrey 3 REC · 47 YDS +1.1 Fantasy Impact

Game story

The Buffalo Bills defeated the New Orleans Saints 31–6 in Week 12 of the 2021 NFL season on 2021-11-25, a matchup that controlled the game from start to finish. The decisive swing (-10.3% win probability) came in the second quarter when Buffalo Bills swung the momentum.

In Week 12 of the 2021 NFL season on 2021-11-25, the Buffalo Bills took care of business against the New Orleans Saints, pulling away with a 31–6 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q3 with 14 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

J. Allen (Buffalo Bills) paced the passing game, with +14.31 total EPA, and +15.6% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, J. Allen (Buffalo Bills) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +14.31 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-10.3% win probability) landed in the second quarter when Buffalo Bills changed the game: (3:19) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 14-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 21-B.Roby at NO 47. 21-B.Roby to NO 49 for 2 yards (14-S.Diggs).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Q1Q2Q3Q4T
Buffalo Bills73147031
New Orleans Saints000606

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

  1. 1 J. Allen · Buffalo Bills · Passing · +14.31 total EPA · 38 snaps · +0.38 EPA/play
  2. 2 D. Knox · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +5.91 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.97 EPA/play
  3. 3 M. Breida · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +3.67 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.83 EPA/play
  4. 4 C. Beasley · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +2.97 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.59 EPA/play
  5. 5 E. Sanders · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +2.86 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.95 EPA/play
  6. 6 N. Vannett · New Orleans Saints · Receiving · +2.44 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.44 EPA/play
  7. 7 T. Siemian · New Orleans Saints · Rushing · +2.21 total EPA · 2 snaps · +1.11 EPA/play
  8. 8 L. Humphrey · New Orleans Saints · Receiving · +1.12 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.19 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

J. Allen — BUF · Passing

J. Allen posted the highest total EPA (+14.31) in the game, making the biggest overall impact on Buffalo Bills's efficiency. Across 38 counted snaps, they averaged +0.38 EPA per play.

The signature play (-5.04 EPA) came from New Orleans Saints: (7:08) (Shotgun) 15-T.Siemian pass deep right intended for 11-D.Harris INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Poyer at BUF 38. 21-J.Poyer to NO 44 for 18 yards (10-T.Smith).

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

  • Buffalo Bills — D. Knox (J. Allen pass) (Q1 52:15)
  • Buffalo Bills — S. Diggs (J. Allen pass) (Q3 23:54)
  • Buffalo Bills — D. Knox (J. Allen pass) (Q3 19:28)
  • New Orleans Saints — N. Vannett (T. Siemian pass) (Q4 15:00)
  • Buffalo Bills — M. Breida (J. Allen pass) (Q4 8:25)

Field goals

  • Buffalo Bills — T. Bass (Q2 38:50)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 7–0. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NO 7 (Q1 52:15) — (7:15) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass -1, YAC 8; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NO 15 (Q1 52:09) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack..

The second quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 3–0. Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the NO 16 (Q2 38:50) — (8:50) 2-T.Bass 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack..

The third quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 14–0. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NO 5 (Q3 23:54) — (8:54) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 4, YAC 1; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NO 15 (Q3 23:48) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NO 24 (Q3 19:28) — (4:28) 71-R.Bates reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 10, YAC 14; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NO 15 (Q3 19:19) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack..

The fourth quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 7–6. New Orleans Saints found the end zone from the BUF 11 (Q4 15:00) — (15:00) (Shotgun) 15-T.Siemian pass short right to 81-N.Vannett for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 11, YAC 0; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NO 23 (Q4 8:25) — (8:25) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 22-M.Breida for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass -2, YAC 25; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NO 15 (Q4 8:17) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

  • Buffalo Bills (Q2 33:19) — (3:19) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 14-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 21-B.Roby at NO 47. 21-B.Roby to NO 49 for 2 yards (14-S.Diggs). [WPA -10.3% · EPA -3.83]
  • Buffalo Bills (Q2 30:16) — (:16) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 13-G.Davis INTERCEPTED by 5-K.Alexander (94-C.Jordan) at NO 10. 5-K.Alexander to NO 10 for no gain (1-E.Sanders). [WPA -6.7% · EPA -3.83]
  • Buffalo Bills (Q3 28:51) — (13:51) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end to BUF 38 for 10 yards (21-B.Roby). [WPA +6.7% · EPA +2.04]
  • New Orleans Saints (Q1 49:10) — (4:10) (Shotgun) 15-T.Siemian sacked at NO 41 for -9 yards (97-M.Addison). [WPA -6.1% · EPA -2.83]
  • Buffalo Bills (Q2 41:37) — (11:37) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 13-G.Davis ran ob at NO 20 for 26 yards (21-B.Roby). Pass 14, YAC 12 [WPA +6.0% · EPA +2.40]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

  • New Orleans Saints (Q4 7:08) — (7:08) (Shotgun) 15-T.Siemian pass deep right intended for 11-D.Harris INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Poyer at BUF 38. 21-J.Poyer to NO 44 for 18 yards (10-T.Smith). [WPA -0.0% · EPA -5.04]
  • Buffalo Bills (Q3 19:28) — (4:28) 71-R.Bates reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 10, YAC 14 [WPA +3.4% · EPA +4.46]
  • Buffalo Bills (Q2 33:19) — (3:19) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 14-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 21-B.Roby at NO 47. 21-B.Roby to NO 49 for 2 yards (14-S.Diggs). [WPA -10.3% · EPA -3.83]
  • Buffalo Bills (Q2 30:16) — (:16) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 13-G.Davis INTERCEPTED by 5-K.Alexander (94-C.Jordan) at NO 10. 5-K.Alexander to NO 10 for no gain (1-E.Sanders). [WPA -6.7% · EPA -3.83]

Quarterback report card

J.Allen led all passers in efficiency for Buffalo Bills, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

  • J.Allen (Buffalo Bills) · 38 dropbacks · 60.5% completion · +15.6% CPOE · +0.38 EPA/play · +14.31 total EPA
  • T.Siemian (New Orleans Saints) · 33 dropbacks · 51.5% completion · -8.7% CPOE · -0.19 EPA/play · -6.43 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

StatBuffalo BillsNew Orleans Saints
Offensive EPA/play+0.081-0.367
Offensive success rate51.3%22.2%
Pass EPA/play+0.377-0.259
Rush EPA/play-0.216-0.462
Defensive EPA/play+0.367-0.081
Defensive success rate77.8%48.7%

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Buffalo Bills generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.08 vs -0.37), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

  • Buffalo Bills: 10 drives, +6.34 total EPA, 5 scoring drives
  • New Orleans Saints: 11 drives, -26.42 total EPA, 1 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

  • Buffalo Bills leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
  • J. Allen (Buffalo Bills) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
  • J. Allen (BUF) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
  • T. Siemian (NO) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

  1. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q1 52:15 · NO 7 · Score 6-0
    (7:15) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass -1, YAC 8
  2. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q1 52:09 · NO 15 · Score 7-0
    2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.
  3. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q2 38:50 · NO 16 · Score 10-0
    (8:50) 2-T.Bass 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.
  4. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q3 23:54 · NO 5 · Score 16-0
    (8:54) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 4, YAC 1
  5. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q3 23:48 · NO 15 · Score 17-0
    2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.
  6. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q3 19:28 · NO 24 · Score 23-0
    (4:28) 71-R.Bates reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 10, YAC 14
  7. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q3 19:19 · NO 15 · Score 24-0
    2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.
  8. New Orleans Saints TD (+6) — Q4 15:00 · BUF 11 · Score 24-6
    (15:00) (Shotgun) 15-T.Siemian pass short right to 81-N.Vannett for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 11, YAC 0
  9. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q4 8:25 · NO 23 · Score 30-6
    (8:25) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 22-M.Breida for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass -2, YAC 25
  10. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q4 8:17 · NO 15 · Score 31-6
    2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

Frequently asked questions

Who won Buffalo Bills vs New Orleans Saints?

The Buffalo Bills beat the New Orleans Saints 31-6 in Week 12, 2021 on 2021-11-25.

What was the final score of Buffalo Bills vs New Orleans Saints?

The final score was Buffalo Bills 31, New Orleans Saints 6 (BUF 31-6 NO) in Week 12, 2021 on 2021-11-25.

What was the score by quarter in Buffalo Bills vs New Orleans Saints?

Q1: Buffalo Bills 7, New Orleans Saints 0; Q2: Buffalo Bills 3, New Orleans Saints 0; Q3: Buffalo Bills 14, New Orleans Saints 0; Q4: Buffalo Bills 7, New Orleans Saints 6; Final: Buffalo Bills 31, New Orleans Saints 6.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals in Buffalo Bills vs New Orleans Saints?

Buffalo Bills touchdown — D. Knox (J. Allen pass) (Q1 52:15) Buffalo Bills touchdown — S. Diggs (J. Allen pass) (Q3 23:54) Buffalo Bills touchdown — D. Knox (J. Allen pass) (Q3 19:28) New Orleans Saints touchdown — N. Vannett (T. Siemian pass) (Q4 15:00) Buffalo Bills touchdown — M. Breida (J. Allen pass) (Q4 8:25) Buffalo Bills field goal — T. Bass (Q2 38:50, 3 pts) Extra points followed each touchdown unless noted in the play-by-play.

How did the quarterbacks play in Buffalo Bills vs New Orleans Saints?

J. Allen (Buffalo Bills), 60.5% completion, +15.6% CPOE, +0.38 EPA per dropback, +14.31 total passing EPA. T. Siemian (New Orleans Saints), 51.5% completion, -8.7% CPOE, -0.19 EPA per dropback, -6.43 total passing EPA.

Who was the most impactful player in Buffalo Bills vs New Orleans Saints?

J. Allen (Buffalo Bills) led the game in total EPA with +14.31 on passing plays. across 38 snaps. The top single-play swing was (-5.04 EPA): (7:08) (Shotgun) 15-T.Siemian pass deep right intended for 11-D.Harris INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Poyer at BUF 38. 21-J.Poyer to NO 44 for 18 yards (10-T.Smith).. The biggest win-probability swing was -10.3%.

Season records after this game

Buffalo Bills

Entered 6-4 Now 7-4 W

New Orleans Saints

Entered 5-5 Now 5-6 L