Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots: 2021 Week 16 Recap

Game story

In Week 16 of the 2021 NFL season on 2021-12-26, the Buffalo Bills took care of business against the New England Patriots, pulling away with a 33–21 final that built a comfortable lead.

The highest-scoring period was Q4 with 20 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

J. Allen (Buffalo Bills) paced the passing game, with +21.94 total EPA, and +4.7% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, J. Allen (Buffalo Bills) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +21.94 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-13.6% win probability) landed in the second quarter when New England Patriots changed the game: (8:09) 71-M.Onwenu reported in as eligible. 10-M.Jones pass deep middle intended for 1-N.Harry INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Hyde (54-A.Klein) at BUF 45. 23-M.Hyde pushed ob at NE 33 for 22 yards (16-J.Meyers).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 J. Allen · Buffalo Bills · Passing · +21.94 total EPA · 52 snaps · +0.42 EPA/play
2. 2 I. McKenzie · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +15.33 total EPA · 12 snaps · +1.28 EPA/play
3. 3 D. Harris · New England Patriots · Rushing · +7.43 total EPA · 18 snaps · +0.41 EPA/play
4. 4 S. Diggs · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +6.52 total EPA · 13 snaps · +0.50 EPA/play
5. 5 J. Meyers · New England Patriots · Receiving · +3.97 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.50 EPA/play
6. 6 D. Singletary · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +2.20 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.37 EPA/play
7. 7 K. Bourne · New England Patriots · Receiving · +2.15 total EPA · 4 snaps · +0.54 EPA/play
8. 8 D. Knox · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +1.88 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.63 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Buffalo Bills — I. McKenzie (J. Allen pass) (Q1 51:43)
• New England Patriots — D. Harris (Q2 44:36)
• Buffalo Bills — S. Diggs (J. Allen pass) (Q2 31:48)
• New England Patriots — D. Harris (Q3 16:44)
• Buffalo Bills — D. Singletary (Q4 11:45)
• New England Patriots — D. Harris (Q4 7:42)
• Buffalo Bills — D. Knox (J. Allen pass) (Q4 2:34)

Field goals

• Buffalo Bills — T. Bass (Q2 39:04)
• Buffalo Bills — T. Bass (Q3 24:05)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 7–0. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NE 3 (Q1 51:43) — (6:43) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 19-I.McKenzie for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q1 51:37) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack..

The second quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 10–7. New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 16 (Q2 44:36) — (14:36) 37-D.Harris left end for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q2 44:28) — 6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the NE 7 (Q2 39:04) — (9:04) 2-T.Bass 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NE 12 (Q2 31:48) — (1:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 14-S.Diggs for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q2 31:45) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack..

The third quarter: New England Patriots won the period 7–3. Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the NE 16 (Q3 24:05) — (9:05) 2-T.Bass 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 1 (Q3 16:44) — (1:44) 71-M.Onwenu reported in as eligible. 37-D.Harris up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q3 16:41) — 6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey..

The fourth quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 13–7. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NE 2 (Q4 11:45) — (11:45) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 8 (Q4 7:42) — (7:42) 37-D.Harris left guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 37-Harris 5th 100-yard game of season, 8th career.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q4 7:37) — 6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NE 2 (Q4 2:34) — (2:34) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. shovel pass; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q4 2:30) — 2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• New England Patriots (Q2 38:09) — (8:09) 71-M.Onwenu reported in as eligible. 10-M.Jones pass deep middle intended for 1-N.Harry INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Hyde (54-A.Klein) at BUF 45. 23-M.Hyde pushed ob at NE 33 for 22 yards (16-J.Meyers). [WPA -13.6% · EPA -4.67]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 34:51) — (4:51) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 1-E.Sanders. [WPA -10.6% · EPA -4.16]
• New England Patriots (Q2 44:36) — (14:36) 37-D.Harris left end for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +9.3% · EPA +2.08]
• New England Patriots (Q2 45:00) — (15:00) 37-D.Harris right end pushed ob at BUF 16 for 12 yards (54-A.Klein). [WPA +9.3% · EPA +2.20]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 51:43) — (6:43) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 19-I.McKenzie for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +8.5% · EPA +3.94]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• New England Patriots (Q2 38:09) — (8:09) 71-M.Onwenu reported in as eligible. 10-M.Jones pass deep middle intended for 1-N.Harry INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Hyde (54-A.Klein) at BUF 45. 23-M.Hyde pushed ob at NE 33 for 22 yards (16-J.Meyers). [WPA -13.6% · EPA -4.67]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 34:51) — (4:51) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 1-E.Sanders. [WPA -10.6% · EPA -4.16]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 51:43) — (6:43) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 19-I.McKenzie for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +8.5% · EPA +3.94]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 31:48) — (1:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 14-S.Diggs for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +8.1% · EPA +3.84]

Quarterback report card

J.Allen led all passers in efficiency for Buffalo Bills, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• J.Allen (Buffalo Bills) · 52 dropbacks · 57.7% completion · +4.7% CPOE · +0.42 EPA/play · +21.94 total EPA
• M.Jones (New England Patriots) · 39 dropbacks · 35.9% completion · -18.9% CPOE · -0.02 EPA/play · -0.80 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Buffalo Bills generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.25 vs +0.05), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Buffalo Bills: 9 drives, +22.57 total EPA, 6 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 8 drives, +3.95 total EPA, 3 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Buffalo Bills leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• J. Allen (Buffalo Bills) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• J. Allen (BUF) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• M. Jones (NE) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q1 51:43 · NE 3 · Score 6-0
   (6:43) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 19-I.McKenzie for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q1 51:37 · NE 15 · Score 7-0
   2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.
3. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 44:36 · BUF 16 · Score 7-6
   (14:36) 37-D.Harris left end for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 44:28 · BUF 15 · Score 7-7
   6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
5. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q2 39:04 · NE 7 · Score 10-7
   (9:04) 2-T.Bass 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.
6. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 31:48 · NE 12 · Score 16-7
   (1:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 14-S.Diggs for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 31:45 · NE 15 · Score 17-7
   2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.
8. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q3 24:05 · NE 16 · Score 20-7
   (9:05) 2-T.Bass 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.
9. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q3 16:44 · BUF 1 · Score 20-13
   (1:44) 71-M.Onwenu reported in as eligible. 37-D.Harris up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
10. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q3 16:41 · BUF 15 · Score 20-14
    6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
11. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q4 11:45 · NE 2 · Score 26-14
    (11:45) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 7:42 · BUF 8 · Score 26-20
    (7:42) 37-D.Harris left guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 37-Harris 5th 100-yard game of season, 8th career.
13. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q4 7:37 · BUF 15 · Score 26-21
    6-N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
14. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q4 2:34 · NE 2 · Score 32-21
    (2:34) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. shovel pass
15. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q4 2:30 · NE 15 · Score 33-21
    2-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.