Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots: 2017 Week 16 Recap

Game story

In Week 16 of the 2017 NFL season on 2017-12-24, the New England Patriots took care of business against the Buffalo Bills, pulling away with a 37–16 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 23 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

T. Taylor (Buffalo Bills) paced the passing game, with -3.13 total EPA, and -6.5% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, T. Brady (New England Patriots) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +7.87 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-17.7% win probability) landed in the second quarter when New England Patriots changed the game: (10:37) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle intended for 85-K.Britt INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Poyer at NE 19. 21-J.Poyer for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 T. Brady · New England Patriots · Passing · +7.87 total EPA · 32 snaps · +0.25 EPA/play
2. 2 K. Benjamin · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +5.90 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.84 EPA/play
3. 3 D. Lewis · New England Patriots · Rushing · +5.51 total EPA · 24 snaps · +0.23 EPA/play
4. 4 D. Thompson · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +4.74 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.95 EPA/play
5. 5 D. Amendola · New England Patriots · Receiving · +3.16 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.05 EPA/play
6. 6 R. Gronkowski · New England Patriots · Receiving · +2.72 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.39 EPA/play
7. 7 L. McCoy · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +2.54 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.36 EPA/play
8. 8 D. Lewis · New England Patriots · Receiving · +2.22 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.44 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Buffalo Bills — J. Poyer (Q2 40:37)
• New England Patriots — R. Gronkowski (T. Brady pass) (Q2 37:13)
• New England Patriots — M. Gillislee (Q3 16:01)
• New England Patriots — D. Lewis (T. Brady pass) (Q4 9:32)
• New England Patriots — D. Lewis (Q4 4:01)

Field goals

• Buffalo Bills — S. Hauschka (Q1 50:36)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q2 44:18)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q2 32:00)
• Buffalo Bills — S. Hauschka (Q2 30:02)
• Buffalo Bills — S. Hauschka (Q3 25:25)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q3 20:12)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 3–0. Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the NE 23 (Q1 50:36) — (5:36) 4-S.Hauschka 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt..

The second quarter: New England Patriots won the period 13–10. New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the BUF 3 (Q2 44:18) — (14:18) 3-S.Gostkowski 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the BUF 85 (Q2 40:37); Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q2 40:28) — 4-S.Hauschka extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 17 (Q2 37:13); New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q2 37:06) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the BUF 22 (Q2 32:00); Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the NE 4 (Q2 30:02) — (:02) 4-S.Hauschka 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt..

The third quarter: New England Patriots won the period 10–3. Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the NE 12 (Q3 25:25) — (10:25) 4-S.Hauschka 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the BUF 16 (Q3 20:12) — (5:12) 3-S.Gostkowski 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 1 (Q3 16:01) — (1:01) 35-M.Gillislee up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q3 15:55) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen..

The fourth quarter: New England Patriots won the period 14–0. New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 12 (Q4 9:32); New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q4 9:27) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 4 (Q4 4:01) — (4:01) 33-D.Lewis up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q4 3:58).

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• New England Patriots (Q2 40:37) — (10:37) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle intended for 85-K.Britt INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Poyer at NE 19. 21-J.Poyer for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -17.7% · EPA -6.45]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 44:14) — (14:14) 5-T.Taylor pass deep left to 10-D.Thompson pushed ob at NE 29 for 46 yards (32-D.McCourty) [93-L.Guy]. [WPA +11.8% · EPA +3.12]
• New England Patriots (Q3 20:48) — (5:48) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady sacked at BUF 16 for -6 yards (95-K.Williams). [WPA -11.3% · EPA -1.62]
• Buffalo Bills (Q3 27:18) — (12:18) 5-T.Taylor pass short right to 25-L.McCoy to NE 10 for 39 yards (21-M.Butler). [WPA +10.9% · EPA +2.50]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 41:30) — (11:30) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor sacked at NE 12 for -6 yards (59-M.Flowers). [WPA -10.4% · EPA -3.48]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• New England Patriots (Q2 40:37) — (10:37) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle intended for 85-K.Britt INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Poyer at NE 19. 21-J.Poyer for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -17.7% · EPA -6.45]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 13:13) — (13:13) 4-S.Hauschka 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. [WPA -4.6% · EPA -3.64]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 41:30) — (11:30) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor sacked at NE 12 for -6 yards (59-M.Flowers). [WPA -10.4% · EPA -3.48]
• New England Patriots (Q4 9:32) — (9:32) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 33-D.Lewis for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 30th TD pass of season, extends record for most all-time in a season after turning 40. NE 12-Brady 7th se [WPA +5.0% · EPA +3.43]

Quarterback report card

T.Taylor led all passers in efficiency for Buffalo Bills, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• T.Taylor (Buffalo Bills) · 47 dropbacks · 44.7% completion · -6.5% CPOE · -0.07 EPA/play · -3.13 total EPA
• T.Brady (New England Patriots) · 32 dropbacks · 65.6% completion · +8.2% CPOE · +0.25 EPA/play · +7.87 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

New England Patriots held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.16 vs -0.09), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Buffalo Bills: 10 drives, -8.17 total EPA, 3 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 10 drives, +13.74 total EPA, 8 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New England Patriots leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• T. Brady (New England Patriots) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• T. Taylor (BUF) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.
• T. Brady (NE) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q1 50:36 · NE 23 · Score 3-0
   (5:36) 4-S.Hauschka 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
2. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q2 44:18 · BUF 3 · Score 3-3
   (14:18) 3-S.Gostkowski 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
3. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 40:37 · BUF 85 · Score 9-3
   (10:37) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle intended for 85-K.Britt INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Poyer at NE 19. 21-J.Poyer for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 40:28 · NE 15 · Score 10-3
   4-S.Hauschka extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
5. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 37:13 · BUF 17 · Score 10-9
   (7:13) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 87-R.Gronkowski for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 75th career Brady-Gronkowski TD connection, 5th all-time.
6. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 37:06 · BUF 15 · Score 10-10
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
7. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q2 32:00 · BUF 22 · Score 10-13
   (2:00) 3-S.Gostkowski 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3-Gostkowski 1,601 career pts, 19th all-time to achieve that milesto
8. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q2 30:02 · NE 4 · Score 13-13
   (:02) 4-S.Hauschka 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
9. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q3 25:25 · NE 12 · Score 16-13
   (10:25) 4-S.Hauschka 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
10. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q3 20:12 · BUF 16 · Score 16-16
    (5:12) 3-S.Gostkowski 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
11. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q3 16:01 · BUF 1 · Score 16-22
    (1:01) 35-M.Gillislee up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
12. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q3 15:55 · BUF 15 · Score 16-23
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
13. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 9:32 · BUF 12 · Score 16-29
    (9:32) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 33-D.Lewis for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 30th TD pass of season, extends record for most all-time in a sea
14. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q4 9:27 · BUF 15 · Score 16-30
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
15. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 4:01 · BUF 4 · Score 16-36
    (4:01) 33-D.Lewis up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q4 3:58 · BUF 15 · Score 16-37
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3-Gostkowski 150 pts, 5th-season of 150+ pts scored (extends NFL record).