FantasyHQ · Game Recap

NFL · Week 11 · November 23, 2015 · 11 min read

Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots: 2015 Week 11 Recap

Patriots defeat Bills 20–13 in Week 11

D.Amendola led Fantasy Impact as Patriots prevailed in a 13–20 Week 11 finish.

Buffalo Bills 13 5–5
Final 13–20
New England Patriots 20 10–0 Winner
Winner
New England Patriots
Final score
13–20
Halftime
Buffalo Bills 3–10 New England Patriots
Top passer
T. Brady
FantasyHQ MVP
D.Amendola
Game date
November 23, 2015

Top fantasy performers · Bills

  • C.Hogan 6 REC · 95 YDS +5.0 Fantasy Impact
  • Tyrod Taylor
    Tyrod Taylor 20/43 · 233 YDS +2.5 Fantasy Impact
  • S.Watkins 3 REC · 39 YDS +0.7 Fantasy Impact

Top fantasy performers · Patriots

  • D.Amendola 9 REC · 117 YDS +5.2 Fantasy Impact
  • Jordan White
    Jordan White 2 REC · 32 YDS · 1 TD +4.4 Fantasy Impact
  • T.Brady 20/44 · 271 YDS · 1 TD +4.4 Fantasy Impact

Game story

The New England Patriots defeated the Buffalo Bills 20–13 in Week 11 of the 2015 NFL season on 2015-11-23, a matchup that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half. The decisive swing (+16.4% win probability) came in the third quarter when New England Patriots swung the momentum.

In Week 11 of the 2015 NFL season on 2015-11-23, the New England Patriots took care of business against the Buffalo Bills, pulling away with a 20–13 final that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

The highest-scoring period was Q3 with 17 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

T. Brady (New England Patriots) paced the passing game, with +4.37 total EPA, and -11.5% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, D. Amendola (New England Patriots) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +5.22 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+16.4% win probability) landed in the third quarter when New England Patriots changed the game: (6:25) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 80-D.Amendola to BUF 6 for 41 yards (28-R.Darby). NE-80 Amendola 7th career 100-yard game.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Q1Q2Q3Q4T
Buffalo Bills0373013
New England Patriots37100020

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

  1. 1 D. Amendola · New England Patriots · Receiving · +5.22 total EPA · 12 snaps · +0.44 EPA/play
  2. 2 C. Hogan · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +4.97 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.71 EPA/play
  3. 3 J. White · New England Patriots · Receiving · +4.44 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.48 EPA/play
  4. 4 T. Brady · New England Patriots · Passing · +4.37 total EPA · 44 snaps · +0.10 EPA/play
  5. 5 T. Taylor · Buffalo Bills · Passing · +2.52 total EPA · 43 snaps · +0.06 EPA/play
  6. 6 B. LaFell · New England Patriots · Receiving · +0.97 total EPA · 8 snaps · +0.12 EPA/play
  7. 7 J. White · New England Patriots · Rushing · +0.87 total EPA · 2 snaps · +0.43 EPA/play
  8. 8 S. Watkins · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +0.74 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.12 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

D. Amendola — NE · Receiving

D. Amendola posted the highest total EPA (+5.22) in the game, making the biggest overall impact on New England Patriots's efficiency. Across 12 counted snaps, they averaged +0.44 EPA per play.

The signature play (+4.63 EPA) came from New England Patriots: (2:50) 6-R.Allen punts 34 yards to BUF 30, Center-49-J.Cardona. 21-L.McKelvin to BUF 32 for 2 yards (36-B.King). FUMBLES (36-B.King), RECOVERED by NE-55-J.Freeny at BUF 35. 55-J.Freeny to BUF 30 for 5 yards (36-J.Meeks).

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

  • New England Patriots — J. White (T. Brady pass) (Q2 30:19)
  • Buffalo Bills — L. McCoy (Q3 25:40)
  • New England Patriots — J. White (Q3 21:00)

Field goals

  • New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q1 52:33)
  • Buffalo Bills — D. Carpenter (Q2 39:32)
  • New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q3 15:50)
  • Buffalo Bills — D. Carpenter (Q4 3:34)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: New England Patriots won the period 3–0. New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the BUF 17 (Q1 52:33) — (7:33) 3-S.Gostkowski 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen..

The second quarter: New England Patriots won the period 7–3. Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the NE 34 (Q2 39:32) — (9:32) 2-D.Carpenter 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 20 (Q2 30:19) — (:19) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 28-J.White for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 28-White 1st NFL TD.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q2 30:13) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen..

The third quarter: New England Patriots won the period 10–7. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NE 27 (Q3 25:40); Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NE 15 (Q3 25:29) — 2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 6 (Q3 21:00) — (6:00) (No Huddle) 28-J.White right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on BUF-55-J.Hughes, Defensive Offside, declined.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 15 (Q3 20:55) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the BUF 16 (Q3 15:50) — (:50) 3-S.Gostkowski 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen..

The fourth quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 3–0. Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the NE 15 (Q4 3:34) — (3:34) 2-D.Carpenter 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

  • New England Patriots (Q3 21:25) — (6:25) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 80-D.Amendola to BUF 6 for 41 yards (28-R.Darby). NE-80 Amendola 7th career 100-yard game. [WPA +16.4% · EPA +3.79]
  • New England Patriots (Q2 30:19) — (:19) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 28-J.White for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 28-White 1st NFL TD. [WPA +12.0% · EPA +4.03]
  • Buffalo Bills (Q3 25:40) — (10:40) (Shotgun) 25-L.McCoy right end for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. [WPA +11.7% · EPA +3.29]
  • New England Patriots (Q3 17:50) — (2:50) 6-R.Allen punts 34 yards to BUF 30, Center-49-J.Cardona. 21-L.McKelvin to BUF 32 for 2 yards (36-B.King). FUMBLES (36-B.King), RECOVERED by NE-55-J.Freeny at BUF 35. 55-J.Freeny to BUF 30 for 5 [WPA +9.3% · EPA +4.63]
  • Buffalo Bills (Q4 5:39) — (5:39) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep right to 15-C.Hogan pushed ob at NE 15 for 42 yards (23-P.Chung). [WPA +8.9% · EPA +3.13]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

  • New England Patriots (Q3 17:50) — (2:50) 6-R.Allen punts 34 yards to BUF 30, Center-49-J.Cardona. 21-L.McKelvin to BUF 32 for 2 yards (36-B.King). FUMBLES (36-B.King), RECOVERED by NE-55-J.Freeny at BUF 35. 55-J.Freeny to BUF 30 for 5 [WPA +9.3% · EPA +4.63]
  • New England Patriots (Q2 30:19) — (:19) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 28-J.White for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 28-White 1st NFL TD. [WPA +12.0% · EPA +4.03]
  • New England Patriots (Q3 21:25) — (6:25) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 80-D.Amendola to BUF 6 for 41 yards (28-R.Darby). NE-80 Amendola 7th career 100-yard game. [WPA +16.4% · EPA +3.79]
  • Buffalo Bills (Q3 25:40) — (10:40) (Shotgun) 25-L.McCoy right end for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. [WPA +11.7% · EPA +3.29]

Quarterback report card

T.Brady led all passers in efficiency for New England Patriots, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

  • T.Brady (New England Patriots) · 44 dropbacks · 45.5% completion · -11.5% CPOE · +0.10 EPA/play · +4.37 total EPA
  • T.Taylor (Buffalo Bills) · 43 dropbacks · 46.5% completion · -5.4% CPOE · +0.06 EPA/play · +2.52 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

StatBuffalo BillsNew England Patriots
Offensive EPA/play-0.058-0.001
Offensive success rate34.8%36.5%
Pass EPA/play+0.059+0.099
Rush EPA/play-0.209-0.192
Defensive EPA/play+0.001+0.058
Defensive success rate63.5%65.2%

By the numbers

New England Patriots held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (-0.00 vs -0.06), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

  • Buffalo Bills: 13 drives, -5.16 total EPA, 3 scoring drives
  • New England Patriots: 13 drives, -0.09 total EPA, 4 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

  • New England Patriots leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
  • One-score margin — fantasy managers should double-check garbage-time stats before drawing conclusions.
  • D. Amendola (New England Patriots) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
  • T. Brady (NE) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.
  • T. Taylor (BUF) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

  1. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q1 52:33 · BUF 17 · Score 0-3
    (7:33) 3-S.Gostkowski 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
  2. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q2 39:32 · NE 34 · Score 3-3
    (9:32) 2-D.Carpenter 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
  3. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 30:19 · BUF 20 · Score 3-9
    (:19) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 28-J.White for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 28-White 1st NFL TD.
  4. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 30:13 · BUF 15 · Score 3-10
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
  5. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q3 25:40 · NE 27 · Score 9-10
    (10:40) (Shotgun) 25-L.McCoy right end for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The rul
  6. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q3 25:29 · NE 15 · Score 10-10
    2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
  7. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q3 21:00 · BUF 6 · Score 10-16
    (6:00) (No Huddle) 28-J.White right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on BUF-55-J.Hughes, Defensive Offside, declined.
  8. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q3 20:55 · BUF 15 · Score 10-17
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
  9. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q3 15:50 · BUF 16 · Score 10-20
    (:50) 3-S.Gostkowski 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
  10. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q4 3:34 · NE 15 · Score 13-20
    (3:34) 2-D.Carpenter 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

Frequently asked questions

Who won Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots?

The New England Patriots beat the Buffalo Bills 20-13 in Week 11, 2015 on 2015-11-23.

What was the final score of Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots?

The final score was Buffalo Bills 13, New England Patriots 20 (BUF 13-20 NE) in Week 11, 2015 on 2015-11-23.

What was the score by quarter in Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots?

Q1: Buffalo Bills 0, New England Patriots 3; Q2: Buffalo Bills 3, New England Patriots 7; Q3: Buffalo Bills 7, New England Patriots 10; Q4: Buffalo Bills 3, New England Patriots 0; Final: Buffalo Bills 13, New England Patriots 20.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals in Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots?

New England Patriots touchdown — J. White (T. Brady pass) (Q2 30:19) Buffalo Bills touchdown — L. McCoy (Q3 25:40) New England Patriots touchdown — J. White (Q3 21:00) New England Patriots field goal — S. Gostkowski (Q1 52:33, 3 pts) Buffalo Bills field goal — D. Carpenter (Q2 39:32, 3 pts) New England Patriots field goal — S. Gostkowski (Q3 15:50, 3 pts) Buffalo Bills field goal — D. Carpenter (Q4 3:34, 3 pts) Extra points followed each touchdown unless noted in the play-by-play.

How did the quarterbacks play in Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots?

T. Brady (New England Patriots), 45.5% completion, -11.5% CPOE, +0.10 EPA per dropback, +4.37 total passing EPA. T. Taylor (Buffalo Bills), 46.5% completion, -5.4% CPOE, +0.06 EPA per dropback, +2.52 total passing EPA.

Who was the most impactful player in Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots?

D. Amendola (New England Patriots) led the game in total EPA with +5.22 on receiving plays. across 12 snaps. The top single-play swing was (+4.63 EPA): (2:50) 6-R.Allen punts 34 yards to BUF 30, Center-49-J.Cardona. 21-L.McKelvin to BUF 32 for 2 yards (36-B.King). FUMBLES (36-B.King), RECOVERED by NE-55-J.Freeny at BUF 35. 55-J.Fr. The biggest win-probability swing was +16.4%.

Was Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots a close game?

Yes — the margin was 7 points. New England Patriots won 20-13 in a game that stayed a one-score game deep into the second half.

Season records after this game

Buffalo Bills

Entered 5-4 Now 5-5 L

New England Patriots

Entered 9-0 Now 10-0 W