Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots: 2014 Week 17 Recap

Game story

In Week 17 of the 2014 NFL season on 2014-12-28, the Buffalo Bills took care of business against the New England Patriots, pulling away with a 17–9 final that built a comfortable lead.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 13 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

K. Orton (Buffalo Bills) paced the passing game, with +3.86 total EPA, and +2.6% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, R. Woods (Buffalo Bills) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +4.59 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+13.2% win probability) landed in the opening quarter when Buffalo Bills changed the game: (13:21) 18-K.Orton pass deep middle to 14-S.Watkins to NE 10 for 43 yards (32-D.McCourty).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 R. Woods · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +4.59 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.15 EPA/play
2. 2 K. Orton · Buffalo Bills · Passing · +3.86 total EPA · 26 snaps · +0.15 EPA/play
3. 3 B. LaFell · New England Patriots · Receiving · +3.09 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.52 EPA/play
4. 4 S. Chandler · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +2.03 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.03 EPA/play
5. 5 M. Gray · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +1.98 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.66 EPA/play
6. 6 S. Watkins · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +1.83 total EPA · 5 snaps · +0.37 EPA/play
7. 7 L. Smith · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +1.79 total EPA · 1 snaps · +1.79 EPA/play
8. 8 B. Tyms · New England Patriots · Receiving · +1.40 total EPA · 6 snaps · +0.23 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Buffalo Bills — R. Woods (K. Orton pass) (Q1 57:03)
• Buffalo Bills — A. Dixon (Q2 40:40)

Field goals

• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q1 48:05)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q2 35:12)
• Buffalo Bills — D. Carpenter (Q2 32:19)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q3 15:41)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 7–3. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NE 6 (Q1 57:03) — (12:03) (Shotgun) 18-K.Orton pass short middle to 10-R.Woods for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q1 56:59) — 2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the BUF 6 (Q1 48:05) — (3:05) 3-S.Gostkowski 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen..

The second quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 10–3. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NE 1 (Q2 40:40) — (10:40) 75-C.Hairston reported in as eligible. 26-A.Dixon right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q2 40:38) — 2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the BUF 26 (Q2 35:12) — (5:12) 3-S.Gostkowski 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the NE 30 (Q2 32:19) — (2:19) 2-D.Carpenter 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt..

The third quarter: New England Patriots won the period 3–0. New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the BUF 17 (Q3 15:41) — (:41) 3-S.Gostkowski 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Buffalo Bills (Q1 58:21) — (13:21) 18-K.Orton pass deep middle to 14-S.Watkins to NE 10 for 43 yards (32-D.McCourty). [WPA +13.2% · EPA +2.88]
• Buffalo Bills (Q2 38:43) — (8:43) (Shotgun) 18-K.Orton sacked at BUF 44 for -6 yards (91-J.Collins). FUMBLES (91-J.Collins) [91-J.Collins], RECOVERED by NE-91-J.Collins at BUF 44. 91-J.Collins to BUF 44 for no gain (70-E.Wood). [WPA -10.0% · EPA -5.03]
• New England Patriots (Q2 37:14) — (7:14) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 34-S.Vereen pushed ob at BUF 26 for 9 yards (53-N.Bradham). [WPA +8.6% · EPA +1.99]
• New England Patriots (Q3 20:57) — (5:57) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo left end to BUF 14 for -1 yards (33-R.Brooks). [WPA -8.5% · EPA -3.60]
• New England Patriots (Q4 7:34) — (7:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short left to 81-T.Wright. PENALTY on BUF-33-R.Brooks, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 45 - No Play. [WPA +6.9% · EPA +2.32]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Buffalo Bills (Q2 38:43) — (8:43) (Shotgun) 18-K.Orton sacked at BUF 44 for -6 yards (91-J.Collins). FUMBLES (91-J.Collins) [91-J.Collins], RECOVERED by NE-91-J.Collins at BUF 44. 91-J.Collins to BUF 44 for no gain (70-E.Wood). [WPA -10.0% · EPA -5.03]
• New England Patriots (Q3 20:57) — (5:57) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo left end to BUF 14 for -1 yards (33-R.Brooks). [WPA -8.5% · EPA -3.60]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 58:21) — (13:21) 18-K.Orton pass deep middle to 14-S.Watkins to NE 10 for 43 yards (32-D.McCourty). [WPA +13.2% · EPA +2.88]
• New England Patriots (Q1 52:19) — (7:19) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 19-B.LaFell to BUF 35 for 27 yards (23-A.Williams). [WPA +6.2% · EPA +2.60]

Quarterback report card

K.Orton led all passers in efficiency for Buffalo Bills, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• K.Orton (Buffalo Bills) · 26 dropbacks · 61.5% completion · +2.6% CPOE · +0.15 EPA/play · +3.86 total EPA
• J.Garoppolo (New England Patriots) · 25 dropbacks · 40.0% completion · -8.0% CPOE · -0.21 EPA/play · -5.20 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Despite the final score, Buffalo Bills generated the better offensive EPA per play (+0.01 vs -0.13), suggesting they moved the ball more efficiently.

• Buffalo Bills: 10 drives, +0.56 total EPA, 3 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 10 drives, -9.92 total EPA, 3 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• Buffalo Bills leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• R. Woods (Buffalo Bills) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• J. Garoppolo (NE) finished below expected efficiency — volume may have masked accuracy issues.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q1 57:03 · NE 6 · Score 6-0
   (12:03) (Shotgun) 18-K.Orton pass short middle to 10-R.Woods for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q1 56:59 · NE 2 · Score 7-0
   2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
3. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q1 48:05 · BUF 6 · Score 7-3
   (3:05) 3-S.Gostkowski 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen.
4. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 40:40 · NE 1 · Score 13-3
   (10:40) 75-C.Hairston reported in as eligible. 26-A.Dixon right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
5. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 40:38 · NE 2 · Score 14-3
   2-D.Carpenter extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
6. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q2 35:12 · BUF 26 · Score 14-6
   (5:12) 3-S.Gostkowski 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen.
7. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q2 32:19 · NE 30 · Score 17-6
   (2:19) 2-D.Carpenter 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
8. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q3 15:41 · BUF 17 · Score 17-9
   (:41) 3-S.Gostkowski 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-6-R.Allen.