Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots: 2011 Week 17 Recap

Game story

In Week 17 of the 2011 NFL season on 2012-01-01, the New England Patriots took care of business against the Buffalo Bills, pulling away with a 49–21 final that controlled the game from start to finish.

The highest-scoring period was Q1 with 21 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

R. Fitzpatrick (Buffalo Bills) paced the passing game, with -3.08 total EPA, and -0.1% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, T. Brady (New England Patriots) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +15.75 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (-18.8% win probability) landed in the third quarter when Buffalo Bills changed the game: (4:01) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left intended for 82-R.Martin INTERCEPTED by 29-S.Moore at BUF 30. 29-S.Moore to BUF 25 for 5 yards (82-R.Martin).

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 T. Brady · New England Patriots · Passing · +15.75 total EPA · 41 snaps · +0.38 EPA/play
2. 2 A. Hernandez · New England Patriots · Receiving · +8.21 total EPA · 11 snaps · +0.75 EPA/play
3. 3 R. Gronkowski · New England Patriots · Receiving · +7.99 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.80 EPA/play
4. 4 B. Green-Ellis · New England Patriots · Receiving · +3.70 total EPA · 1 snaps · +3.70 EPA/play
5. 5 St. Johnson · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +2.87 total EPA · 7 snaps · +0.41 EPA/play
6. 6 D. Hagan · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +2.72 total EPA · 10 snaps · +0.27 EPA/play
7. 7 G. Wilson · Buffalo Bills · Rushing · +2.60 total EPA · 1 snaps · +2.60 EPA/play
8. 8 S. Ridley · New England Patriots · Rushing · +2.17 total EPA · 15 snaps · +0.14 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• Buffalo Bills — T. Choice (Q1 56:22)
• Buffalo Bills — R. Fitzpatrick (Q1 50:24)
• Buffalo Bills — C. Spiller (R. Fitzpatrick pass) (Q1 45:53)
• New England Patriots — B. Green-Ellis (Q2 42:01)
• New England Patriots — A. Hernandez (T. Brady pass) (Q2 35:49)
• New England Patriots — R. Gronkowski (T. Brady pass) (Q3 16:37)
• New England Patriots — B. Green-Ellis (Q4 11:20)
• New England Patriots — R. Gronkowski (T. Brady pass) (Q4 3:07)
• New England Patriots — S. Moore (Q4 3:02)

Field goals

• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q3 27:24)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q3 20:16)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 21–0. Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NE 4 (Q1 56:22) — (11:22) 30-T.Choice up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q1 56:18) — 10-B.Coutu extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NE 18 (Q1 50:24); Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q1 50:19) — 10-B.Coutu extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NE 15 (Q1 45:53) — (:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 28-C.Spiller for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q1 45:48) — 10-B.Coutu extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman..

The second quarter: New England Patriots won the period 14–0. New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 1 (Q2 42:01); New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q2 41:58) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 39 (Q2 35:49); New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q2 35:42) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko..

The third quarter: New England Patriots won the period 14–0. New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the BUF 28 (Q3 27:24) — (12:24) 3-S.Gostkowski 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the BUF 2 (Q3 20:16) — (5:16) 3-S.Gostkowski 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 17 (Q3 16:37) — (1:37) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 87-R.Gronkowski for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots registered a safety from the BUF 2 (Q3 16:32) — Shotgun TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 39-D.Woodhead rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS..

The fourth quarter: New England Patriots won the period 21–0. New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 3 (Q4 11:20); New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q4 11:16) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 7 (Q4 3:07); New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q4 3:02) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the NE 80 (Q4 3:02); New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q4 2:55) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Buffalo Bills (Q3 19:01) — (4:01) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left intended for 82-R.Martin INTERCEPTED by 29-S.Moore at BUF 30. 29-S.Moore to BUF 25 for 5 yards (82-R.Martin). [WPA -18.8% · EPA -4.04]
• New England Patriots (Q3 23:32) — (8:32) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 42-B.Green-Ellis to BUF 20 for 53 yards (26-J.Rogers). NE 12-Brady 5,101 pass yards this season, passing Dan Marino's 1984 total. [WPA +17.4% · EPA +3.70]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 12:16) — (12:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep middle intended for 28-C.Spiller INTERCEPTED by 32-D.McCourty at NE 15. 32-D.McCourty to BUF 47 for 38 yards (76-C.Rinehart). [WPA -11.9% · EPA -6.27]
• New England Patriots (Q2 35:49) — (5:49) (No Huddle) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 81-A.Hernandez for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 5,004 pass yards this season, 3rd player in NFL history with a 5,000-yard season (4th occurrence). [WPA +11.8% · EPA +3.82]
• Buffalo Bills (Q1 56:33) — (11:33) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass incomplete deep middle to 80-D.Hagan. PENALTY on NE-27-A.Molden, Defensive Pass Interference, 47 yards, enforced at BUF 49 - No Play. [WPA +11.4% · EPA +3.60]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Buffalo Bills (Q4 3:02) — (3:02) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right intended for 86-D.Nelson INTERCEPTED by 29-S.Moore at BUF 21. 29-S.Moore for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA -0.1% · EPA -7.72]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 12:16) — (12:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep middle intended for 28-C.Spiller INTERCEPTED by 32-D.McCourty at NE 15. 32-D.McCourty to BUF 47 for 38 yards (76-C.Rinehart). [WPA -11.9% · EPA -6.27]
• Buffalo Bills (Q3 19:01) — (4:01) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left intended for 82-R.Martin INTERCEPTED by 29-S.Moore at BUF 30. 29-S.Moore to BUF 25 for 5 yards (82-R.Martin). [WPA -18.8% · EPA -4.04]
• New England Patriots (Q2 35:49) — (5:49) (No Huddle) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 81-A.Hernandez for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 5,004 pass yards this season, 3rd player in NFL history with a 5,000-yard season (4th occurrence). [WPA +11.8% · EPA +3.82]

Quarterback report card

R.Fitzpatrick led all passers in efficiency for Buffalo Bills, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• R.Fitzpatrick (Buffalo Bills) · 55 dropbacks · 52.7% completion · -0.1% CPOE · -0.06 EPA/play · -3.08 total EPA
• T.Brady (New England Patriots) · 41 dropbacks · 56.1% completion · -1.1% CPOE · +0.38 EPA/play · +15.75 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

New England Patriots held the efficiency edge in offensive EPA per play (+0.29 vs -0.03), even if the scoreboard told a different story.

• Buffalo Bills: 12 drives, -2.57 total EPA, 4 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 12 drives, +25.33 total EPA, 7 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New England Patriots leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• T. Brady (New England Patriots) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q1 56:22 · NE 4 · Score 6-0
   (11:22) 30-T.Choice up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q1 56:18 · NE 2 · Score 7-0
   10-B.Coutu extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
3. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q1 50:24 · NE 18 · Score 13-0
   (5:24) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 13-St.Johnson for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on BUF-13-St.Johnson, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enf
4. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q1 50:19 · NE 2 · Score 14-0
   10-B.Coutu extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
5. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q1 45:53 · NE 15 · Score 20-0
   (:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 28-C.Spiller for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q1 45:48 · NE 2 · Score 21-0
   10-B.Coutu extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
7. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 42:01 · BUF 1 · Score 21-6
   (12:01) 77-N.Solder reported in as eligible. 42-B.Green-Ellis up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 42-Green-Ellis 10th rush TD of season, only 3rd Patriot to
8. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 41:58 · BUF 2 · Score 21-7
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
9. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 35:49 · BUF 39 · Score 21-13
   (5:49) (No Huddle) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 81-A.Hernandez for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 5,004 pass yards this season, 3rd player in NFL history wit
10. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 35:42 · BUF 2 · Score 21-14
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
11. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q3 27:24 · BUF 28 · Score 21-17
    (12:24) 3-S.Gostkowski 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
12. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q3 20:16 · BUF 2 · Score 21-20
    (5:16) 3-S.Gostkowski 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
13. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q3 16:37 · BUF 17 · Score 21-26
    (1:37) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 87-R.Gronkowski for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14. New England Patriots Safety (+2) — Q3 16:32 · BUF 2 · Score 21-28
    Shotgun TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 39-D.Woodhead rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
15. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 11:20 · BUF 3 · Score 21-34
    (11:20) 77-N.Solder reported in as eligible. 42-B.Green-Ellis up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Patriots 12th 30+ point game of season, ties NFL record (Pat
16. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q4 11:16 · BUF 2 · Score 21-35
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
17. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 3:07 · BUF 7 · Score 21-41
    (3:07) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 87-R.Gronkowski for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 300th career TD pass, tying John Elway for 5th place all-time.
18. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q4 3:02 · BUF 2 · Score 21-42
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
19. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 3:02 · NE 80 · Score 21-48
    (3:02) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right intended for 86-D.Nelson INTERCEPTED by 29-S.Moore at BUF 21. 29-S.Moore for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
20. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q4 2:55 · BUF 2 · Score 21-49
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-48-D.Aiken, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.