Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots: 2010 Week 3 Recap

Game story

In Week 3 of the 2010 NFL season on 2010-09-26, the New England Patriots took care of business against the Buffalo Bills, pulling away with a 38–30 final that built a comfortable lead.

The highest-scoring period was Q2 with 23 combined points — the stretch that most shaped the final margin.

R. Fitzpatrick (Buffalo Bills) paced the passing game, with +6.99 total EPA, and +10.2% completion percentage over expected.

On the individual side, T. Brady (New England Patriots) delivered the top overall EPA impact at +11.83 — the clearest player-of-the-game signal on the analytics sheet.

The momentum swing (+18.7% win probability) landed in the third quarter when Buffalo Bills changed the game: 3-S.Gostkowski kicks 65 yards from NE 30 to BUF 5. 21-C.Spiller for 95 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Line score

Final score and points by quarter.

Stars of the game

Top performers by total expected points added (EPA) across passing, rushing, and receiving.

1. 1 T. Brady · New England Patriots · Passing · +11.83 total EPA · 32 snaps · +0.37 EPA/play
2. 2 R. Fitzpatrick · Buffalo Bills · Passing · +6.99 total EPA · 33 snaps · +0.21 EPA/play
3. 3 St. Johnson · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +6.15 total EPA · 4 snaps · +1.54 EPA/play
4. 4 R. Moss · New England Patriots · Receiving · +5.31 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.77 EPA/play
5. 5 R. Gronkowski · New England Patriots · Receiving · +5.25 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.75 EPA/play
6. 6 B. Green-Ellis · New England Patriots · Rushing · +5.15 total EPA · 16 snaps · +0.32 EPA/play
7. 7 D. Woodhead · New England Patriots · Rushing · +4.94 total EPA · 3 snaps · +1.65 EPA/play
8. 8 C. Spiller · Buffalo Bills · Receiving · +2.63 total EPA · 3 snaps · +0.88 EPA/play

Player of the game

FantasyHQ analytics player-of-the-game pick based on total EPA and signature plays.

Who scored touchdowns and field goals

Every touchdown and field goal with the player named in official play-by-play.

Touchdowns

• New England Patriots — R. Moss (T. Brady pass) (Q1 50:18)
• Buffalo Bills — C. Spiller (R. Fitzpatrick pass) (Q2 36:17)
• New England Patriots — D. Woodhead (Q2 33:06)
• New England Patriots — R. Moss (T. Brady pass) (Q3 28:17)
• Buffalo Bills — C. Spiller (Q3 28:11)
• New England Patriots — R. Gronkowski (T. Brady pass) (Q3 16:25)
• New England Patriots — B. Green-Ellis (Q4 8:24)
• Buffalo Bills — R. Fitzpatrick (Q4 4:15)

Field goals

• Buffalo Bills — R. Lindell (Q1 54:52)
• Buffalo Bills — R. Lindell (Q2 40:51)
• Buffalo Bills — R. Lindell (Q2 30:28)
• New England Patriots — S. Gostkowski (Q2 30:05)

How it unfolded, quarter by quarter

A quarter-by-quarter recap built from live scoring plays and play descriptions.

The opening quarter: New England Patriots won the period 7–3. Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the NE 21 (Q1 54:52) — (9:52) 9-R.Lindell 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 7 (Q1 50:18); New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q1 50:14) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ingram, Holder-14-Z.Mesko..

The second quarter: Buffalo Bills won the period 13–10. Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the NE 21 (Q2 40:51) — (10:51) 9-R.Lindell 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NE 5 (Q2 36:17) — (6:17) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 21-C.Spiller for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 21-Spiller 1st NFL TD.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q2 36:13) — 9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 22 (Q2 33:06) — (3:06) (Shotgun) 39-D.Woodhead up the middle for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 39-Woodhead 1st NFL TD.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q2 32:58) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ingram, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.; Buffalo Bills connected on a field goal from the NE 17 (Q2 30:28) — (:28) Bills attempted to call a 2nd consecutive timeout. 9-R.Lindell 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.; New England Patriots connected on a field goal from the BUF 25 (Q2 30:05) — (:05) 3-S.Gostkowski 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ingram, Holder-14-Z.Mesko..

The third quarter: New England Patriots won the period 14–7. New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 35 (Q3 28:17); New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q3 28:11) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ingram, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NE 30 (Q3 28:11) — 3-S.Gostkowski kicks 65 yards from NE 30 to BUF 5. 21-C.Spiller for 95 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q3 27:58) — 9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.; New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 5 (Q3 16:25); New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q3 16:21) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ingram, Holder-14-Z.Mesko..

The fourth quarter: The quarter finished even at 7–7. New England Patriots found the end zone from the BUF 7 (Q4 8:24) — (8:24) 42-B.Green-Ellis right tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.; New England Patriots added 1 points from the BUF 2 (Q4 8:19) — 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ingram, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.; Buffalo Bills found the end zone from the NE 37 (Q4 4:15); Buffalo Bills added 1 points from the NE 2 (Q4 4:08) — 9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman..

Turning points

Plays that moved win probability the most — the swings that decided the game.

• Buffalo Bills (Q3 28:11) — 3-S.Gostkowski kicks 65 yards from NE 30 to BUF 5. 21-C.Spiller for 95 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +18.7% · EPA +6.86]
• New England Patriots (Q3 28:17) — (13:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 81-R.Moss for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 81-Moss 14,604 career receiving yards, 5th all-time. NE 81-Moss 36th career game with 2+ TD receptions [WPA +14.5% · EPA +4.01]
• New England Patriots (Q2 39:52) — (9:52) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 19-B.Tate to NE 34 for 14 yards (29-D.Florence). FUMBLES (29-D.Florence), RECOVERED by BUF-31-J.Byrd at NE 37. 31-J.Byrd to NE 37 for no gain (81-R.Mos [WPA -14.2% · EPA -2.41]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 15:00) — (15:00) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep middle intended for 11-R.Parrish INTERCEPTED by 25-P.Chung [96-J.Cunningham] at NE -1. 25-P.Chung to NE 25 for 26 yards (67-A.Levitre). [WPA -12.7% · EPA -5.24]
• Buffalo Bills (Q3 23:47) — (8:47) 9-R.Lindell 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman. [WPA -12.0% · EPA -3.54]

Impact plays

Highest expected-points added snaps that flipped field position and scoring chances.

• Buffalo Bills (Q3 28:11) — 3-S.Gostkowski kicks 65 yards from NE 30 to BUF 5. 21-C.Spiller for 95 yards, TOUCHDOWN. [WPA +18.7% · EPA +6.86]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 15:00) — (15:00) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep middle intended for 11-R.Parrish INTERCEPTED by 25-P.Chung [96-J.Cunningham] at NE -1. 25-P.Chung to NE 25 for 26 yards (67-A.Levitre). [WPA -12.7% · EPA -5.24]
• New England Patriots (Q3 28:17) — (13:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 81-R.Moss for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 81-Moss 14,604 career receiving yards, 5th all-time. NE 81-Moss 36th career game with 2+ TD receptions [WPA +14.5% · EPA +4.01]
• Buffalo Bills (Q4 4:15) — (4:15) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 13-St. Johnson for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on BUF-13-St. Johnson, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. [WPA +1.6% · EPA +3.90]

Quarterback report card

R.Fitzpatrick led all passers in efficiency for Buffalo Bills, setting the tone in the passing game according to FantasyHQ analytics.

• R.Fitzpatrick (Buffalo Bills) · 33 dropbacks · 60.6% completion · +10.2% CPOE · +0.21 EPA/play · +6.99 total EPA
• T.Brady (New England Patriots) · 32 dropbacks · 65.6% completion · +14.2% CPOE · +0.37 EPA/play · +11.83 total EPA

Team stats comparison

Side-by-side offensive and defensive efficiency from FantasyHQ analytics.

By the numbers

Both offenses finished within striking distance on EPA per play (Buffalo Bills +0.21, New England Patriots +0.22) — a true toss-up on the analytics sheet.

• Buffalo Bills: 10 drives, +14.79 total EPA, 6 scoring drives
• New England Patriots: 11 drives, +19.57 total EPA, 6 scoring drives

Key takeaways

What to remember for fantasy research, film review, and follow-up box score digging.

• New England Patriots leaves with the win and the better postgame narrative for Week-to-week momentum.
• T. Brady (New England Patriots) is the first name to pull up for highlight reels and prop-retrospective research.
• R. Fitzpatrick (BUF) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.
• T. Brady (NE) beat expectation through the air — positive CPOE game for stack builds.

Every scoring play

Chronological scoring with field position and full play-by-play context.

1. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q1 54:52 · NE 21 · Score 3-0
   (9:52) 9-R.Lindell 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
2. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q1 50:18 · BUF 7 · Score 3-6
   (5:18) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 81-R.Moss for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 81-Moss 150th career receiving TD, 2nd all-time (Jerry Rice 197).
3. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q1 50:14 · BUF 2 · Score 3-7
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ingram, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
4. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q2 40:51 · NE 21 · Score 6-7
   (10:51) 9-R.Lindell 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
5. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q2 36:17 · NE 5 · Score 12-7
   (6:17) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 21-C.Spiller for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 21-Spiller 1st NFL TD.
6. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q2 36:13 · NE 2 · Score 13-7
   9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
7. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q2 33:06 · BUF 22 · Score 13-13
   (3:06) (Shotgun) 39-D.Woodhead up the middle for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 39-Woodhead 1st NFL TD.
8. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q2 32:58 · BUF 2 · Score 13-14
   3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ingram, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
9. Buffalo Bills FG (+3) — Q2 30:28 · NE 17 · Score 16-14
   (:28) Bills attempted to call a 2nd consecutive timeout. 9-R.Lindell 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
10. New England Patriots FG (+3) — Q2 30:05 · BUF 25 · Score 16-17
    (:05) 3-S.Gostkowski 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ingram, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
11. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q3 28:17 · BUF 35 · Score 16-23
    (13:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 81-R.Moss for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 81-Moss 14,604 career receiving yards, 5th all-time. NE 81-Mos
12. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q3 28:11 · BUF 2 · Score 16-24
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ingram, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
13. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q3 28:11 · NE 30 · Score 22-24
    3-S.Gostkowski kicks 65 yards from NE 30 to BUF 5. 21-C.Spiller for 95 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q3 27:58 · NE 2 · Score 23-24
    9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.
15. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q3 16:25 · BUF 5 · Score 23-30
    (1:25) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 87-R.Gronkowski for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 233rd career TD pass, passes Steve Young for 19th place all-
16. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q3 16:21 · BUF 2 · Score 23-31
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ingram, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
17. New England Patriots TD (+6) — Q4 8:24 · BUF 7 · Score 23-37
    (8:24) 42-B.Green-Ellis right tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
18. New England Patriots XP (+1) — Q4 8:19 · BUF 2 · Score 23-38
    3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ingram, Holder-14-Z.Mesko.
19. Buffalo Bills TD (+6) — Q4 4:15 · NE 37 · Score 29-38
    (4:15) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 13-St. Johnson for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on BUF-13-St. Johnson, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced be
20. Buffalo Bills XP (+1) — Q4 4:08 · NE 2 · Score 30-38
    9-R.Lindell extra point is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-8-B.Moorman.